Break Stats -- 2022 FargoRate Ohio Open (US Pro Billiard Series) 10-Ball, October 2022

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2022 FargoRate Ohio Open 10-Ball event played October 19-22 at the Roberts Centre in Wilmington, Ohio. Streaming was free on Billiard TV and on YouTube. This was the fifth of the 6 events planned for this year's CSI/Predator US Pro Billiard Series. The main commentators were Mark White, Tim De Ruyter, and Tony Robles. Fedor Gorst won the event, defeating Roberto Gomez in the final match.

This was a 64-player event with double-elimination down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side). A random draw then matched one player from each side against each other, with single-elimination play from that point to the conclusion. Each match was two races to 4. If the same player won both races, he won the match. If the two races to 4 were split, a shootout determined the winner. The stats are for all 21 matches streamed on the feature table, of which 8 ended with a shootout. These 21 matches represented 17.9% of the total of 117 matches (119 scheduled less 2 forfeits) played in the event and included 40% (6 of 15) of the matches in the Last 16.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Predator Apex 9-foot table (4¼" corner pockets);​
- Predator Arcadia cloth (blue);​
- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​
- Predator Arena lights;​
- referee racks using a Predator Aerorack triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners;​
- a 10-ball made in any pocket on a break is spotted (not a game win);​
- jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (occurred once);​
- 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break and after a push out) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The 21 streamed matches (241 games) were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. Matches 1 through 15 were in the double-elimination stage, and matches 16-21 in the single-elimination stage.

Wed. October 19, 2022
1. Chang Jung-Lin defeated Eklent Kaçi 4-3, 4-1​
2. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz d. Wojciech Szewczyk 4-2, 4-2​
3. Robbie Capito d. Ko Ping Chung 2-4, 4-1, shootout​
4. Albin Ouschan d. Wiktor Zielinski 2-4, 4-2, shootout​
5. Petri Makkonen d. Ko Ping Han 2-4, 4-3, shootout​
6. Mario He d. Dimitris Loukatos 4-1, 4-1​

Thurs. Oct. 20
7. Wu Kun Lin d. Duong Quoc Hoang 0-4, 4-1, shootout​
8. Ko PC d. Sanjin Pehlivanovic 4-3, 4-1​
9. Mieszko Fortunski d. Darren Appleton 3-4, 4-3, shootout​
10. Alex Kazakis d. David Alcaide 4-1, 4-3​
11. Aleksa Pecelj d. Capito 4-1, 4-3​
12. Chang J-L d. Zielinski 4-2, 4-3​

Fri. Oct. 21
13. Mika Immonen d. Fedor Gorst 4-3, 1-4, shootout​
14. Kaçi d. Michael Schneider 4-1, 4-0​
15. Konrad Juszczyszyn d. Makkonen 4-3, 4-0​
16. Gorst d. Kazakis 3-4, 4-1, shootout (Last 16)​
17. Denis Grabe d. He 4-3, 4-1 (Quarterfinal)​
18. Kaçi d. Immonen 4-2, 4-1 (Quarterfinal)​

Sat. Oct. 22
19. Gorst d. Grabe 4-0, 4-0 (Semifinal)​
20. Roberto Gomez d. Kaçi 2-4, 4-1, shootout (Semifinal)​
21. Gorst d. Gomez 4-2, 4-3 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 53% (73 of 138)​
Match losers -- 46% (47 of 103)​
Total -- 50% (120 of 241)

Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 66% (91 of 138)​
Match losers -- 42% (43 of 103)​
Total -- 56% (134 of 241)

Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 18% (25 of 138)​
Match losers -- 9% (9 of 103)​
Total -- 14% (34 of 241)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 34% (25 of 73)​
Match losers -- 19% (9 of 47)​
Total -- 28% (34 of 120)

Here's a breakdown of the 241 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 80 (33% of the 241 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 40 (17%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 5 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 8 (3%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 49 (20%)​
Breaker lost the game: 59 (24%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% (134 of 241) of all games,​
He won 67% (80 of 120) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 45% (54 of 121) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 34 break-and-run games represented 14% of all 241 games, 25% of the 134 games won by the breaker, and 28% of the 120 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 34 break-and-run games consisted of 4 2-packs (1 each by Chang, Kazakis, Wu, and Kaçi), and 26 singles. No one in these 21 matches broke and ran more than 2 games in a row.

Three matches contained 3 B&Rs, 7 matches had 2 B&Rs, and 11 matches had 1 B&R. No match went without a B&R.

10-Balls on the break -- 6 (2.5% of the 241 breaks); they were spotted.

Average times -- The average elapsed time for the two races to 4 in each match was about 79 minutes, or 6.9 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made in the second race to 4 (i.e., shootouts not included), so it includes time for racking and commercial beaks. These breaks, about one minute for some and two minutes for others, often occurred after every two or three games and between races.

The average elapsed time for the 8 shootouts (excluding the commercial breaks that preceded some of them) was about 7 minutes, or about 47 seconds per shot for the 70 shots taken in those shootouts.
 
Crazy low break and run. The 50% successful break does not make a good viewing experience.
 
Crazy low break and run. The 50% successful break does not make a good viewing experience.
Yes, and low runouts even when the break was successful. These 4¼" Predator tables seem to be difficult for both breaking and shooting after the break. In the Las Vegas Open back in March, successful breaks were 52% and both B&R figures (11% and 21%) were even lower than in this Ohio event (14% and 28%). The fields in the streamed matches were strong in both events.
 
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