Break Stats -- 2023 Apex Wisconsin Open (US Pro Billiard Series) 10-Ball, May 2023

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2023 Apex Wisconsin Open 10-Ball event played May 17-20 at the Ho-Chunk Gaming Wisconsin Dells in Baraboo, Wisconsin. Streaming was free on Billiard TV and on YouTube. This was the second of the 5 events planned for this year's CSI/Predator US Pro Billiard Series. The main commentators were Tim De Ruyter and George Teyechea. Joshua Filler won the event, defeating Tyler Styer in the final match.

This was a 64-player event with 16 players seeded based on WPA rankings. The format was double-elimination down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side). A random draw then matched one player from each side against each other, with single-elimination play from that point to the conclusion. In the double-elimination portion, each match was two races to 4. If the same player won both races, he won the match. If the two races to 4 were split, a shootout determined the winner. In the single-elimination portion, each match was the best two out of three races to 4, with a shootout determining the winner of the the third set (and, therefore, of the match) if that set was tied at hill/hill (3-3).

The 14 matches (159 games) I tracked were all of the matches streamed on feature Table 1, excluding matches from the women's event. Only 1 of these 14 matches (a double-elimination match) ended with a shootout, and only 1 of the single-elimination matches went to a third set (with no shootout). These 14 matches were 11.9% of the total of 118 matches played in the event (119 scheduled, 1 forfeited).

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Predator Apex 9-foot table with 4¼" corner pockets;​
- Predator Arcadia Reserve Tournament Blue cloth;​
- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​
- Predator Arena lights;​
- referee racks using a Predator Aerorack triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners;​
- a 10-ball made in any pocket on a break is spotted (not a game win);​
- jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (occurred once);​
- 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break and after a push out) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The 14 tracked matches (159 games) were as follows, listed in the order in which they were played. Matches 1 through 9 were in the double-elimination stage, and matches 10 through 14 in the single-elimination stage.

Wednesday, May 17, 2023
1. Jeremy Seaman defeated Evan Lunda 4-3, 4-1​
2. Jeremy Sossei d. Lukas Fracasso-Verner 4-0, 4-3​
3. Alex Montpellier d. Payne McBride 4-3, 4-2​
4. John Morra d. Jeremy Sossei 4-3, 4-3​
5. Gerson Martinez Boza d. Joven Bustamante 4-2, 4-1​
6. Mika Immonen d. Lunda 4-1, 1-4, shootout​

Thursday, May 18
7. Joshua Filler d. Ke Wu 4-0, 4-0​
8. Fedor Gorst d. Jesse Engel 4-3, 4-1​

Friday, May 19
9. Alex Kazakis d. Morra 4-0, 4-1​
10. Tyler Styer d. Gorst 4-1, 4-3 (Last 16)​
11. Filler d. Kazakis 4-0, 2-4, 4-1 (Quarterfinal)​

Saturday, May 20
12. Filler d. Vitaliy Patsura 4-2, 4-2 (Semifinal)​
13. Styer d. Martinez Boza 4-1, 4-1 (Semifinal)​
14. Filler d. Styer 4-1, 4-1 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 53% (52 of 99)​
Match losers -- 37% (22 of 60)​
Total -- 47% (74 of 159)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 69% (68 of 99)​
Match losers -- 28% (17 of 60)​
Total -- 53% (85 of 159)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 20% (20 of 99)​
Match losers -- 8% (5 of 60)​
Total -- 16% (25 of 159)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 38% (20 of 52)​
Match losers -- 23% (5 of 22)​
Total -- 34% (25 of 74)

Here's a breakdown of the 159 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 50 (31% of the 159 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 24 (15%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 3 (2%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 33 (21%)​
Breaker lost the game: 47 (30%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 53% (85 of 159) of all games,​
He won 68% (50 of 74) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 41% (35 of 85) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 25 break-and-run games represented 16% of all 159 games, 29% of the 85 games won by the breaker, and 34% of the 74 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 25 break-and-run games consisted of 1 3-pack (by Styer), 4 2-packs (2 by Filler and 1 each by Sosse and Kazakis), and 14 singles. No one in these 14 matches broke and ran more than 3 games in a row.

One match contained 4 B&Rs, 3 matches had 3, 4 matches had 2, 4 matches had 1, and 2 matches had no B&Rs.

10-Balls on the break -- 3 (1.9% of the 159 breaks); they were spotted.
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2023 Wisconsin Open 10-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 14 streamed matches I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Evan Lunda. He won the game, but not by B&R.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.7 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.3.

• Number of innings:
35% (56 of 159) of the games ended in one inning – 25 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 31 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
25% (40 of 159) of the games ended in the second inning.​
32% (63 of 159) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The 3 games with the most visits to the table ended on the non-breakers' 8th visits.​

• 30% (47 of 159) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 34% (25 of 74)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 20% (1 of 5)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 26% (21 of 80)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 52% of the time (82 of 158)​
- Won the game in a later inning 20% of the time (32 of 158)​
- Lost the game 28% of the time (44 of 158)​
[Note -- total games used here are 158 rather than 159 because one game was lost on 3 consecutive fouls before any balls were made.]​

• The loser won an average of 1.5 games in the 29 races to 4 in the 14 matches. Five of those 29 races ended at a score of 4-0, 12 at 4-1, 5 at 4-2, and 7 at 4-3.

• Only 1 of the 14 matches had a shootout, and it lasted just 6 shots.

• The average elapsed time for the races to 4 was about 38 minutes, or 6.9 minutes per game. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made for the last race to 4 (i.e., shootouts not included), so it includes time for racking and commercial breaks. Unlike previous events in this series, commercial breaks occurred only between races to 4 rather than more often.

• The match that was both longest in elapsed time, at 106 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.8, was Gorst d. Engel 4-3, 4-1.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 43 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.3, was Filler d. Wu 4-0, 4-0.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 31.8 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.0 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.6 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 52% of all games and 62% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
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Re: Shootouts

The Alfa Las Vegas Open 3 months ago was the first of the US Pro Billiard Series events to use the new format in the single-elimination portion of the event, whereby a shootout is used in a match only upon a 3-3 tie in the third race to 4.

For the 63 matches in the single-elimination portion of the 2023 Las Vegas Open:
34 matches (54%) ended in 2 sets​
19 matches (30%) ended in 3 sets without a shootout​
10 matches (16%) ended with a shootout in the 3rd set​

So what were the results for this 2023 Wisconsin Open? It was just a 16-man single-elimination stage, so 15 matches:
12 matches (80%) ended in 2 sets​
3 matches (20%) ended in 3 sets without a shootout​
0 matches (0%) ended with a shootout in the 3rd set​

In the double-elimination portions of these two events, shootouts were used if two races to 4 were split 1-1. The counts:
Las Vegas Open -- 84 shootouts in 253 matches = 33%​
Wisconsin Open -- 21 shootouts in 103 matches = 20%​

So shootouts were down substantially in both stages of the Wisconsin event. Were mismatches more prevalent, or was it just an aberration? It'll be interesting to see how this works out in future events.

[Counts based on match results on the probilliardseries.com website.]
 
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Shootouts, continued

Post #3 was for the two Open events so far this year. How about the women's events?

Double-Elimination Stage

Las Vegas Women's Open -- 36 shootouts in 102 matches = 35%
Wisconsin Women's Open -- 23 shootouts in 84 matches = 27%

Single-Elimination Stage (15 matches in each event)

Las Vegas Women's Open​
8 matches (53%) ended in 2 sets​
5 matches (33%) ended in 3 sets without a shootout​
2 matches (13%) ended with a shootout in the 3rd set​
Wisconsin Women's Open​
9 matches (60%) ended in 2 sets​
6 matches (40%) ended in 3 sets without a shootout​
0 matches (0%) ended with a shootout in the 3rd set​

So shootouts at the Wisconsin events were down from the Las Vegas events for both the overall Open and the Women's Open.

And the total number of shootouts in the single-elimination stages of both Wisconsin events was ............................ ZERO (for 30 matches).*

[*If the website is accurate and I didn't miscount something.]
 
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