Break Stats -- 2023 Derby City Classic 9-Ball, January 2023

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2023 Derby City Classic 9-Ball event played January 25-28 at Caesars Southern Indiana Hotel & Casino in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. Fedor Gorst won the event, defeating Shane Van Boening in the final match.

This event had 526 players, and operated under the standard DCC format of redrawing match pairings for every round, with one buy-back permitted for each player. All races were to 9.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with 4¼" corner pockets and blue Simonis 860 or 860 HR cloth;​
- Aramith Tournament balls with an Aramith "Diamond" cue ball with blue spots;​
- Accu-Rack racking template;​
- referee racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball not in the back location;​
- winner breaks (he actually had the choice) from the break box -- one diamond to each side of the long string;​
- no 3-point illegal-break rule;​
- jump cues not allowed and jumping with break cues not allowed;​
- cue-ball fouls only;​
- a 30-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and​
- all slop counts.​
[Note -- In matches 8-11 below, the players racked their own and the shot clock was not in operation.]​

The 13 matches (160 games) streamed by Accu-Stats were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. TPAs were given for just four of the matches.

Fri., Jan. 27
1. Mika Immonen (.958) defeated Dee Adkins (.516) 9-0​
2. Brandon Shuff (.914) d. Mieszko Fortunski (.829) 9-7​

Sat., Jan. 28 (extending through the night until about 9:30 am Sunday morning)
3. Jayson Shaw (.938) d. David Grossman (.619) 9-0​
4. Tony Chohan d. Louis DeMarco 9-5​
5. Fedor Gorst (.875) d. Joshua Filler (.771) 9-2​
6. Robbie Capito d. Lee Vann Corteza 9-4​
7. Shane Van Boening d. Max Eberle 9-5​
8. Roland Garcia d. Tony Chohan 9-6​
9. Filler d. Donny Mills 9-3​
10. Gorst d. Skyler Woodward 9-1​
11. Gorst d. Garcia 9-1​
12. Gorst d. Alex Pagulayan 9-7 (Semifinal)​
13. Gorst d. Van Boening 9-2 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 68% (77 of 113)​
Match losers -- 66% (31 of 47)​
Total -- 68% (108 of 160)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 73% (82 of 113)​
Match losers -- 26% (12 of 47)​
Total -- 59% (94 of 160)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 31% (35 of 113)​
Match losers -- 13% (6 of 47)​
Total -- 26% (41 of 160)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 45% (35 of 77)​
Match losers -- 19% (6 of 31)​
Total -- 38% (41 of 108)

Here's a breakdown of the 160 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 67 (42% of the 160 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 41 (26%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 3 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 11 (7%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 24 (15%)​
Breaker lost the game: 14 (9%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 59% (94 of 160) of all games,​
He won 62% (67 of 108) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 52% (27 of 52) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 41 break-and-run games represented 26% of all 160 games, 44% of the 94 games won by the breaker, and 38% of the 108 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 41 break-and-run games consisted of 10 2-packs and 21 singles. No one broke and ran more than 2 games in a row.

9-balls on the break -- The 41 break-and-run games included 1 9-ball on the break (0.6% of the 160 breaks). With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2023 DCC 9-Ball event
[This relates only to the 13 matches streamed by Accu-Stats, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 3 -- done twice by Gorst (both game wins, one a 9-ball on the break) and once by Fortunski (a game loss).

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.0. On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4 and the distribution was 65% 1 ball, 32% 2 balls, and 2% 3 balls.

• Number of innings:
47% (75 of 160) of the games ended in one inning – 41 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 34 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
27% (43 of 160) of the games ended in the second inning.​
26% (42 of 160) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most innings ended on breaker's 8th visit to the table.​

• 35% (56 of 160) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 38% (41 of 108)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 79% (11 of 14)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 11% (4 of 38)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 55% of the time (88 of 159)​
- Won the game in a later inning 12% of the time (19 of 159)​
- Lost the game 33% of the time (52 of 159)​
[Note -- total games used here are 159 rather than 160 to eliminate the game in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The match loser won an average of just 3.3 games in these races to 9. The closest matches were two at 9-7; the most lopsided were two at 9-0.

• The average elapsed time for these 13 races to 9 was 65 minutes, averaging 5.3 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at 92 minutes, was Gorst d. Pagulayan 9-7. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 6.5, was Gorst d. Filler 9-2.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at 43 minutes, was Shaw d. Grossman 9-0. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.2, was Filler d. Mills 9-3.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 11.4 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.4 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.0 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 42% of all games and in 56% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
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