Break Stats -- 2024 Derby City Classic 9-Ball, January 2024

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2024 Derby City Classic 9-Ball event played January 24-27 at Caesars Southern Indiana Hotel & Casino in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. Joshua Filler won the event, defeating Pijus Labutis in the final match.

This event apparently had approximately 500 players. I was unable to count the number this year because the Completed Matches list for 9-Ball was not posted on line. The event operated under the standard DCC format of redrawing match pairings for every round, with one buy-back permitted for each player. All races were to 9.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with 4½" corner pockets and blue Simonis 860 or 860 HR cloth;​
- Aramith Tournament balls with an Aramith "Diamond" cue ball with blue spots;​
- Accu-Rack racking template;​
- rack your own, with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball not in the back location;​
- winner breaks (he actually had the choice) from the break box -- one diamond to each side of the long string;​
- no 3-point illegal-break rule;​
- jump cues not allowed and jumping with break cues not allowed;​
- cue-ball fouls only;​
- a 30-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and​
- all slop counts.​

The 16 matches (229 games) streamed by Accu-Stats were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. TPAs were not given for some of the matches.

Fri., Jan. 26
1. Joshua Filler (.949) defeated Shannon Murphy (.308) 9-0​
2. Josh Roberts (.897) d. Derek Pogirski (.566) 9-2​
3. Billy Thorpe (.890) d. Robb Saez (.855) 9-7​

Sat., Jan. 27 (extending through the night until about 11:00 am Sunday morning)
4. Mieszko Fortunski d. Shane Van Boening 9-3​
5. Jayson Shaw (.843) d. Billy Thorpe (.890) 9-8​
6. Roland Garcia (.889) d. Roberto Gomez (.835) 9-8​
7. Fortunski (.896) d. Thorsten Hohmann (.796) 9-6​
8. Shaw (.949) d. Lee Vann Corteza (.849) 9-5​
9. Garcia (.930) d. Naoyuki Oi (.877) 9-6​
10. Pijus Labutis (.899) d. Bill Ussery (.750) 9-4​
11. Filler d. Alex Pagulayan 9-6​
12. Shaw d. Vitaliy Patsura 9-6​
13. Labutis d. Gorst 9-6​
14. Filler (.975 -- best of these 16 matches) d. John Morra (.925) 9-5​
15. Filler (.931) d. Labutis (.852) 9-5 (Semifinal)​
16. Filler (.909) d. Labutis (.889) (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 61% (86 of 140)​
Match losers -- 53% (47 of 89)​
Total -- 58% (133 of 229)

Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 66% (92 of 140)​
Match losers -- 42% (37 of 89)​
Total -- 56% (129 of 229)

Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 32% (45 of 140)​
Match losers -- 15% (13 of 89)​
Total -- 25% (58 of 229)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 52% (45 of 86)​
Match losers -- 28% (13 of 47)​
Total -- 44% (58 of 133)

Here's a breakdown of the 229 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 100 (44% of the 229 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 33 (14%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 18 (8%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 25 (11%)​
Breaker lost the game: 49 (21%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% (129 of 229) of all games,​
He won 75% (100 of 133) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 30% (29 of 96) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 58 break-and-run games represented 25% of all 229 games, 45% of the 129 games won by the breaker, and 44% of the 133 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 58 break-and-run games consisted of 1 4-pack (by Filler), 3 3-packs (Roberts, Fortunski, and Shaw), 5 2-packs and 35 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 58 break-and-run games included 9 9-balls on the break (3.9% of the 229 breaks).
 
Miscellany from the data for the 2024 DCC 9-Ball event
[This relates only to the 16 matches streamed by Accu-Stats, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4. It was done just once, by Thorpe, who lost that game. Three balls were made on the break in 12 games, 9 of which were won by the breaker.

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.0. On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5 and the distribution was 63% 1 ball, 27% 2 balls, and 10% 3 or 4 balls.

• Number of innings:
52% (118 of 229) of the games ended in one inning – 58 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 60 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
27% (62 of 229) of the games ended in the second inning.​
21% (49 of 229) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most innings ended on non-breaker's 8th visit to the table.​

• 43% (98 of 229) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 44% (58 of 133)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 64% (14 of 22)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 35% (26 of 74)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 66% of the time (146 of 220)​
- Won the game in a later inning 13% of the time (28 of 220)​
- Lost the game 21% of the time (46 of 220)​
[Note -- total games used here are 220 rather than 229 to eliminate the games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The match loser won an average of 5.3 games in these races to 9. The closest matches were three (including the Final) at 9-8; the most lopsided was one at 9-0.

• The average elapsed time for these 16 races to 9 was 63 minutes, averaging 4.4 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at about 87 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 5.8, was Labutis d. Gorst 9-6.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at about 26 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 2.9 (!), was Filler d. Murphy 9-0.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 10.4 games, other fouls 1 for every 5.5 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 3.5 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 40% of all games and in 53% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
Yes, the percentage was higher last year with the tighter pockets!
The venue was colder than I can remember and wetter with all the bad weather coming thru... The tables broke like it... With the Accu-Rack the balls react to speed, spin and hit and not just the hit like the competition so it was punishing even the slightest error on the break stroke thanks to the humidity.... I will be taking temp and humidity meters to the events we do going forward.. I wish had started doing that 15 years ago.....
 
The venue was colder than I can remember and wetter with all the bad weather coming thru... The tables broke like it... With the Accu-Rack the balls react to speed, spin and hit and not just the hit like the competition so it was punishing even the slightest error on the break stroke thanks to the humidity.... I will be taking temp and humidity meters to the events we do going forward.. I wish had started doing that 15 years ago.....
Thanks for that info, Chris.
 
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