Break Stats -- 2025 Las Vegas Open (Predator Pro Billiard Series) 10-Ball, February 2025

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2025 Las Vegas Open 10-Ball event played February 19-26, 2025 at the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas. Streaming was free on Pro Billiard TV's YouTube channel. This was the first event of this year's Predator Pro Billiard Series. The commentators were Jim Wych, Mark White, Eric Hjorleifson, Tim De Ruyter, Benjamin Belhassen, George Teyechea, and John Schmidt. The referees were from the European Pocket Billiard Federation (EPBF). Denis Grabe won the event, defeating Joshua Filler in a shootout in the final match.

128 players entered the event. The format was double-elimination down to 32 players (16 on the winners' side and 16 on the one-loss side). A random draw then matched one player from each side against each other, with single-elimination play from that point to the conclusion. In the double-elimination portion, each match was the best two out of three races to 4, with a shootout determining the winner of the third set (and therefore, of the match) if that set was tied at hill/hill (3-3). In the single-elimination portion, each match was the best of four races to 4, with a shootout determining the winner if the sets were tied 2-2.

The 27 matches (418 games) I tracked were all of the men's-event matches that were streamed on the two feature tables (Table 1 and Table 2) and were available for replay on YouTube. Six of these matches ended with a shootout. These 27 matches were 12% of the total of 232 matches played in the event (239 scheduled, 7 not played) and included 29% (9 of 31) of the matches played in the single-elimination portion of the event.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
• Predator Apex 9-foot table with 4¼" corner pockets;​
• Predator Arcadia Reserve Tournament Blue cloth;​
• Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​
• Predator Arena lights;​
• referee racks using a Predator Aerorack triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
• winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
• call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
• early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners;​
• a 10-ball made in any pocket on a break is spotted (not a game win);​
• jump cues allowed;​
• foul on all balls;​
• 3-foul rule in effect (4 games were lost on 3 consecutive fouls);​
• 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break and after a push out) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​
• lag for opening break.​

The 27 tracked matches (418 games) were as follows. Matches 1 through 18 were in the double-elimination stage, and matches 19 through 27 in the single-elimination stage.

Wednesday, February 19, 2025
1. Max Lechner defeated Chris Reinhold 4-3, 4-1​
2. Wojciech Szewczyk d. Can Salim 4-3, 4-1​
3. Marco Teutscher d. Joey Tate 2-4, 4-2, 3-3, shootout​
4. Joshua Filler d. Tomasz Malinowski 4-1, 4-3​
5. Wu Kun Lin d. Chip Compton 4-0, 4-0​
6. Laz Martinez d. Tony Chohan 2-4, 4-3, 4-2​
7. Denis Grabe d. Evan Lunda 4-3, 4-1​
8. Jose Alberto Delgado d. Sergio Rivas 4-0, 4-0​

Thursday, Feb. 20
9. Ralf Souquet d. Francisco Bustamante 4-2, 4-3​
10. Alex Pagulayan d. Mark Estiola 4-2, 4-2​
11. Roberto Gomez d. Emil Andre Gangflot 4-2, 3-4, 3-3, shootout​
12. John Morra d. Vitaliy Patsura 4-3, 4-0​
13. Juan Carlos Exposito d. Adrien Prasad 4-1, 4-2​

Friday, Feb. 21
14. Estiola d. Shane Winters 4-0, 4-1​

Sat., Feb. 24
15. Jeffrey DeLuna d. Mateusz Sniegocki 4-2, 4-3​
16. Pagulayan d. Hsieh Chia Chen 4-1, 4-1​
17. Gerson Martinez Boza d. Estiola 4-2, 4-1​
18. Souquet d. Tate 4-1, 4-2​

Sun. Feb. 23
19. Pagulayan d. Ruslan Chinakhov 4-3, 2-4, 4-3, 4-3 (Last 32)​
20. Daniel Maciol d. Albin Ouschan 2-4, 4-2, 4-2, 1-4, shootout (Last 32)​
21. Szewczyk d. Chang Jung Lin 4-3, 0-4, 3-4, 4-0, shootout (Last 16)​
22. Filler d. Pagulayan 1-4, 4-1, 4-1, 4-2 (Last 16)​

Tues., Feb. 25
23. Filler d. Teutscher 4-0, 1-4, 4-2, 1-4, shootout (Quarterfinal)​
24. DeLuna d. Gomez 4-3, 4-1, 4-0 (Quarterfinal)​

Wed., Feb. 26
25. Filler d. Alex Kazakis 4-2, 3-4, 4-3, 4-2 (Semifinal)​
26. Grabe d. DeLuna 4-3, 4-3, 4-3 (Semifinal)​
27. Grabe d. Filler 0-4, 1-4, 4-3, 4-1, shootout (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 51% (120 of 235)​
Match losers -- 42% (77 of 183)​
Total -- 47% (197 of 418)

Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 62% (145 of 235)​
Match losers -- 39% (72 of 183)​
Total -- 52% (217 of 418)

Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 16% (38 of 235)​
Match losers -- 11% (21 of 183)​
Total -- 14% (59 of 418)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 32% (38 of 120)​
Match losers -- 27% (21 of 77)​
Total -- 30% (59 of 197)

Here's a breakdown of the 418 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 122 (29% of the 418 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 75 (18%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 16 (4%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 91 (22%)​
Breaker lost the game: 110 (26%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 52% (217 of 418) of all games,​
He won 62% (122 of 197) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 43% (95 of 221) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 59 break-and-run games represented 14% of all 418 games, 27% of the 217 games won by the breaker, and 30% of the 197 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 59 break-and-run games consisted of seven 2-packs (four by Filler and one each by Lechner, Exposito, and Grabe) and 45 singles. No one in these 27 matches broke and ran more than 2 games in a row.

One of the 27 matches contained 5 B&Rs, 2 matches had 4 B&Rs, 8 matches had 3, 9 matches had 2, 4 matches had 1, and 3 matches had no B&Rs.

10-Balls on the break -- 8 (1.9% of the 418 breaks), including 2 on fouled breaks; they were spotted.
 
Miscellany from the data for the 2025 Las Vegas Open 10-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 27 streamed matches I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Martinez (a game win but not by B&R. Three balls were made on the break 7 times; 5 of those games were won by the breaker, including 3 by B&R.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.6 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.3.

• Number of innings:
30% (127 of 418) of the games ended in one inning – 59 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 68 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
28% (116 of 418) of the games ended in the second inning.​
42% (175 of 418) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most visits to the table was one that ended on the non-breaker's 9th visit.​

• 24% (102 of 418) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 28% (59 of 197)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 50% (12 of 20)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 23% (31 of 201)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 49% of the time (204 of 416)​
- Won the game in a later inning 21% of the time (88 of 416)​
- Lost the game 30% of the time (124 of 416)​
[Note -- total games used here are 416 rather than 418 to eliminate the two games that were lost on three consecutive fouls before any ball was made after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 1.7 games in the 71 races to 4 in the 27 matches. Eleven of those 71 races ended at a score of 4-0, 19 at 4-1, 20 at 4-2, and 21 at 4-3. In addition, two match in the single-elimination stage had a third set that went to 3-3, causing a shootout.

• Six of these 27 matches had shootouts, 2 (of 18) in the double-elimination stage and 4 (of 9) in the single-elimination stage. Only one of the shootouts (Szewczyk d. Chang) went into sudden death after 4 innings.

• Match lengths:
- In double elimination --longest 138 min. (Teutscher d. Tate); shortest 55 min. (Wu d. Compton); average 84 min.​
- In single elimination -- longest 204 min. (Filler d. Kazakis); shortest 89 min. (DeLuna d. Gomez); average 149 min.​
[Note: The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made for the last 10-Ball game in the match (i.e., shootouts not included), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.]​

• Average minutes per game for matches:
- Highest -- 8.3, Pagulayan vs. Hsieh​
- Lowest -- 5.3, Filler d. Pagulayan​
- For all 27 matches (418 games) -- 6.8​

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 20.9 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.0 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.6 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 53% of all games and 62% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
Last edited:
Shootouts -- What was the frequency of shootouts in this year's Las Vegas Men's Open?
[Note: this is for all of the matches in the event, not just the ones I tracked.]

Double-Elimination Stage (201 matches)​
146 matches (73%) ended in 2 sets (score 2-0 in sets)​
41 matches (20%) ended in 3 sets without a shootout (score 2-1 in sets)​
14 matches (7%) ended with a shootout in the 3rd set (score 1-1 in sets and 3-3 in games in the 3rd set)​
Single-Elimination Stage (31 matches)​
9 matches (29%) ended in 3 sets (score 3-0 in sets)​
14 matches (45%) ended in 4 sets without a shootout (score 3-1 in sets)​
8 matches (26%) ended with a shootout after 4 sets (score 2-2 in sets)​
 
The double-elimination stage of this event last year was just 2 races to 4, with a shootout if it was tied at 1 set apiece. 30% of the matches went to shootouts in that format. With the longer DE matches this year (best 2 out of 3 sets, with a shootout if tied at 3-3 in the 3rd set), shootouts dropped to just 7%.
 
Back
Top