Break Stats -- 2025 U.S. Open 8-Ball Championship, March 2025

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2025 U.S. Open 8-Ball Championship played March 5-8, 2025 at Griff's Bar & Billiards in Las Vegas, Nevada. Streaming was free on YouTube. The main commentators were Collins Newey (the streamer) and Molina Mike; Jay Helfert assisted on a few matches and Sue Orr on one. Shane Van Boening won the event, defeating Oliver Szolnoki in the final match.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:

• Diamond 9-foot table (perhaps 4¼" corners, but I'm not sure);​

• Blue Simonis cloth;​

• Aramith Tournament balls, including a blue-dots cue ball;​

• Taom MaxRack racking template;​

• alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​

• table open after the break;​

• ball in hand anywhere on the table after a foul on the break;​

• an 8-ball made on the break is spotted (it may have been breaker's choice to spot the 8-ball and continue shooting or to re-break);​

• call shots;​

• cue-ball fouls only;​

• no shot clock; and​

• lag for opening break.​

This was a 35-player, double-elimination event, with races to 8 except for a single race to 11 in the finals. Five of the players had FargoRates in the 800s and 10 more were above 750.

These stats are for all 16 matches that were streamed on the feature table. These 16 matches (191 games) were 25% of the total of 64 matches played in the event (68 scheduled, 4 not played). The 16 matches are as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. They total 191 games, but the stats are for 188 games because the stream was not shown for all or most of 3 games: the start of the first game in Match 10 below, all of the first game in Match 13 below, and the start of the second game in Match 13.

Wednesday, March 5

1. Alex Pagulayan defeated Lee Vann Corteza 8-4​

2. Shane Van Boening d. Roberto Gomez 8-4​

3. Max Eberle d. Savannah Easton 8-1​

4. Van Boening d. Ruslan Chinakhov 8-5​

Thurs., March 6

5. John Morra d. Corteza 8-4​

6. Pagulayan d. Chinakhov 8-6​

7. Oliver Szolnoki d. Billy Thorpe 8-3​

8. Van Boening d. Oliver Ruuger 8-0​

Fri., March 7

9. Gomez d. Tony Chohan 8-2​

10. Pagulayan d. Jordan Nile Holman 8-2​

11. Van Boening d. Jeffrey De Luna 8-7​

12. Pagulayan d. De Luna 8-3​

13. Vitaliy Patsura d. Pagulayan 8-7​

Sat. March 8

14. Van Boening d. Szolnoki 8-5 (hotseat match)​

15. Szolnoki d. Patsura 8-3 (Semifinal)​

16. Van Boening d. Szolnoki 11-4 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 78% (73 of 94)​

Match losers -- 69% (65 of 94)​

Total -- 73% (138 of 188)​

Breaker won the game:​

Match winners -- 80% (75 of 94)​

Match losers -- 43% (40 of 94)​

Total -- 61% (115 of 188)​

Break-and-run games on all breaks:​

Match winners -- 65% (61 of 94)​

Match losers -- 32% (30 of 94)​

Total -- 48% (91 of 188)​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 84% (61 of 73)​

Match losers -- 46% (30 of 65)​

Total -- 66% (91 of 138)​

Here's a breakdown of the 188 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​

Breaker won the game: 101 (54% of the 188 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 37 (20%)​

​

Breaker fouled on the break:​

Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)​

Breaker lost the game: 11 (6%)​

​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​

Breaker won the game: 12 (6%)​

Breaker lost the game: 25 (13%)​

​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 61% (115 of 188) of all games,​

He won 73% (101 of 138) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​

He won 28% (14 of 50) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 91 break-and-run games represented 48% of all 188 games, 79% of the 115 games won by the breaker, and 66% of the 138 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 91 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 8-pack (by Van Boening on all 8 of his breaks in the Final), 1 alternate-break 6-pack (by Morra on all 6 of his breaks against Corteza), 4 alternate-break 4-packs (3 by Van Boening and 1 by Pagulayan), 5 alternate-break 3-packs, 11 alternate-break 2-packs, and 24 singles.

8-balls on the break -- None.

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the 2025 U.S. Open 8-Ball Championship
[This relates only to the 16 matches I tracked, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 4 times -- twice by Van Boening (both B&Rs), once by Corteza (B&R), and once by Chinakhov (a game loss). The distribution of the number of balls made on successful breaks was 46% 1 ball, 35% 2 balls, and 19% 3 or 4 balls.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.4 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.8.

• Number of innings:

81% (152 of 188) of the games ended in one inning – 91 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 61 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​

13% (24 of 188) of the games ended in the second inning.​

6% (12 of 188) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most visits to the table ended on the breaker's 7th visit.​

• 65% (122 of 188) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 66% (91 of 138)​

- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 77% (10 of 13)​

- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 57% (21 of 37)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

- Won the game in that same inning 68% of the time (128 of 188)​

- Won the game in a later inning 5% of the time (10 of 188)​

- Lost the game 27% of the time (50 of 188)​

• The match losers won an average of 3.7 games in the 15 races to 8. Two matches went to hill/hill; the fewest games won in a match was zero, in the one shutout.

• The race to 8 that was both longest in elapsed time, at about 131 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 11.9, was Szolnoki d. Patsura. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at about 38 minutes, was Van Boening d. Ruuger 8-0. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.5, was Gomez d. Chohan 8-2.

• The average elapsed time for the 15 races to 8 was 80 minutes. The average minutes per game for all 16 matches was 6.8.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 14.5 games, other fouls 1 for every 23.5 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.4 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 9% of all games and in about 18% of games that were not B&Rs.

 

[AtLarge]

Van Boening played 6 matches in this event, and they were all streamed on the feature table. Here are his break results for this tournament:

Successful breaks -- 90% (35 of 39)​

​

Won the game on his break -- 82% (32 of 39)​

​

B&R games on all breaks -- 79% (31 of 39)​

​

B&R games on successful breaks -- 89% (31 of 35)​

 

[AtLarge]

And in the Final, Shane played essentially a perfect match. He ran out after all 8 of his own breaks and the 3 times he went to the table in games for which Szolnoki was the breaker. No fouls and no missed shots for Shane.

 

[AtLarge]

15 different players accounted for the 32 player appearances in the 16 streamed matches. Van Boening was in 6 of these matches, Pagulayan in 5, and Szolnoki in 4. Here is how each of those 3 players did in their appearances compared with the 17 appearances of the other 12 players in these matches.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

Van Boening -- 90% (35 of 39)​

Pagulayan -- 76% (22 of 29)​

Szolnoki -- 67% (16 of 24)​

Others -- 68% (65 of 96)​

Total -- 73% (138 of 188)​

Breaker won the game:

Van Boening -- 82% (32 of 39)​

Pagulayan -- 72% (21 of 29)​

Szolnoki -- 63% (15 of 24)​

Others -- 49% (47 of 96)​

Total -- 61% (115 of 188)​

Break-and-run games on all breaks:

Van Boening -- 79% (31 of 39)​

Pagulayan -- 55% (16 of 29)​

Szolnoki -- 46% (11 of 24)​

Others -- 34% (33 of 96)​

Total -- 48% (91 of 188)​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

Van Boening -- 89% (31 of 35)​

Pagulayan -- 73% (16 of 22)​

Szolnoki -- 69% (11 of 16)​

Others -- 51% (33 of 65)​

Total -- 66% (91 of 138)​