Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, January 2025

AtLarge

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Here are some break statistics from the 2025 Derby City Classic's Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge played January 17-20, 2025 at the Caesars Southern Indiana Hotel & Casino in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event won by Pijus Labutis, defeating Joshua Filler in the final match. The commentators (2 per match) were Mark Wilson (14 matches), Scott Frost (13), and Nick Varner (3). The referee was Ricky Bryant; the master of ceremonies was Derrick Keith.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
• Diamond 10-foot table (I didn't hear any statement of pocket sizes);​
• Simonis blue 860 or 860 HR cloth;​
• Aramith Tournament balls with an Aramith "Diamond" cue ball with blue spots;​
• Accu-Rack Pro10 racking template;​
• rack your own (1-ball on the spot, 2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
• alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string (cue ball must be entirely behind the head string);​
• jump cues not allowed and jumping with break cues not allowed;​
• foul on all balls;​
• all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break);​
• 30-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and​
• lag for opening break.​

The event's 15 matches (225 games), all streamed from the same table, were as follows (shown in the order in which they were played). The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

Fri., Jan. 17 (Round 1)
1. Roberto Gomez (.789) defeated Mickey Krause (.772) 10-8​
2. Lee Vann Corteza (.930) d. Chris Reinhold (.742) 10-3​
3. Joshua Filler (.869) d. Jeffrey De Luna (.663) 10-4​
4. Ruslan Chinakhov (.764) d. John Morra (.613) 10-4​

Sat., Jan. 18 (Round 1, continued)
5. Gerson Martinez (.899) d. Shane Van Boening (.820) 10-7​
6. Moritz Neuhausen (.892) d. Tyler Styer (.760) 10-5​
7. Pijus Labutis (.871) d. Fedor Gorst (.742) 10-5​
8. Alex Pagulayan (.907) d. Vitaliy Patsura (.667) 10-2​

Sun., Jan. 19 (Round 2)
9. Gomez (.877) d. Corteza (.814) 10-5​
10. Filler (.915) d. Chinakhov (.750) 10-3​
11. Martinez (.881) d. Neuhausen (.755) 10-4​
12. Labutis (.860) d. Pagulayan (.830) 10-7​

Mon., Jan. 20 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)
13. Filler (.910) d. Gomez (.821) 10-6​
14. Labutis (.930) d. Martinez (.838) 10-5​
15. Labutis (.953 -- best of the event) d. Filler (.862) 10-7​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 67% (77 of 115)​
Match losers -- 65% (72 of 110)​
Total -- 66% (149 of 225)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 72% (83 of 115)​
Match losers -- 39% (43 of 110)​
Total -- 56% (126 of 225)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 23% (26 of 115)​
Match losers -- 15% (17 of 110)​
Total -- 19% (43 of 225)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 34% (26 of 77)​
Match losers -- 24% (17 of 72)​
Total -- 29% (43 of 149)

Here's a breakdown of the 225 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 90 (40% of the 225 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 59 (26%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 5 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 14 (6%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 31 (14%)​
Breaker lost the game: 26 (12%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% (126 of 225) of all games,​
He won 60% (90 of 149) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 47% (36 of 76) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 43 break-and-run games represented 19% of all 225 games, 34% of the 126 games won by the breaker, and 29% of the 149 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 43 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 3-pack (by Filler), 3 alternate-break 2-packs (Gorst, Pagulayan, and Martinez), and 34 singles.

10-balls on the break -- The 10-ball was made on the break 2 times (0.9% of the 225 breaks), but it was immediately spotted (with the breaker continuing to shoot) rather than counting as a win.
 
Miscellany from the data for the 2025 DCC Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge:

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 7 times. Five of the games were wins for the breaker (2 by B&R) and two were losses.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.1 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.6 and the distribution was 62% 1 ball, 25% 2 balls, and 13% 3 or 4 balls.

• Number of innings:
36% (82 of 225) of the games ended in one inning – 43 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 39 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
28% (63 of 225) of the games ended in the second inning.​
36% (80 of 225) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most innings ended on the breaker's 9th visit to the table.​

• 28% (63 of 225) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 29% (43 of 149)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 58% (11 of 19)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 16% (9 of 57)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 47% of the time (106 of 225)​
- Won the game in a later inning 20% of the time (45 of 225)​
- Lost the game 33% of the time (74 of 225)​

• The match loser won an average of 5.0 games in these races to 10. The closest match was one at 10-8; the fewest games won in a match was 2 (once).

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at about 119 minutes, was Labutis d. Pagulayan 10-7. The game highest in average minutes per game, at 7.6, was Chinakhov d. Morra 10-4. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at 81 minutes, was Filler d. Chinakhov 10-3. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.5, was Gomez d. Corteza 10-5.

• The average elapsed time for these 15 races to 10 was 96 minutes, averaging 6.4 minutes per game.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 11.8 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.0 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.6 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 53% of all games and in 65% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
Mean of Accu-Stats match TPAs:

■ for the 15 match winners (14 for 2023)
2025 -- .883
2024 -- .878​
2023 -- .889​
2022 -- .903​
2020 -- .891​
2019 -- .902​
2018 -- .870​
2017 -- .869​
2016 -- .878​
9-year total -- .885​

■ for the 15 match losers (14 for 2023)
2025 -- .763​
2024 -- .808​
2023 -- .782​
2022 -- .842​
2020 -- .817​
2019 -- .838​
2018 -- .833​
2017 -- .795​
2016 -- .822​
9-year total -- .811​

■ Total (all 30 TPAs except 28 for 2023)
2025 -- .823​
2024 -- .843​
2023 -- .836​
2022 -- .872​
2020 -- .854​
2019 -- .870​
2018 -- .852​
2017 -- .832​
2016 -- .850​
9-year total -- .848​

[These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPAs calculated for each of these 3 groups.]
 
TPAs in the 900s

With 15 matches each year in this event, there are 30 Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (28 posted for 2023). For the last 10 events (2014-2025) 69 of the 328 TPAs (21%) have been in the 900s. This year's event had the fewest since 2018.

2014 -- 1 [SVB]​
2015 -- 3 [Orcollo and SVB(2)]​
2016 -- 4 [ Bustamante, SVB, Shaw (2)]​
2017 -- 5 [Hohmann, Kazakis, Shaw (3)]​
2018 -- 4 [ Gomez, Gorst, Immonen (2)]​
2019 -- 9 [Gorst, Orcollo, Shaw, SVB, Filler (2), Chang (3)]​
2020 -- 9 [Corteza, Filler (2), Pagulayan (2), Shaw (2), SVB (2)]​
2022 -- 9 [Alcaide, Kazakis, Shaw, Filler (2), Gorst (4)]​
2023 -- 7 [Filler, Gorst, Juszczyszyn, Shaw, SVB, Corteza (2)]​
2024 -- 12 [Corteza, Fortunski, Juszczyszyn, Shaw, Zielinski, Gorst (3), Filler (4)]​
2025 -- 6 [Corteza, Pagulayan, Filler (2), Labutis (2)]​
 
TPAs in a match totaling 1.800 or higher

For all 165 of the Bigfoot matches for 2014 through 2025, only 18 times (11%) has the total of the 2 players' TPAs been 1.800 or higher:

2018
Gomez d. Immonen 11-10, .893 + .931 = 1.824​

2019
Chang d. Van Boening 11-9, .933 + .876 = 1.809​
Filler d. Orcollo 11-8, .956 + .915 = 1.871 (highest)
Chang d. Filler 11-9, .922 + .878 = 1.800​

2020
Shaw d. Woodward 11-3, .939 + .870 = 1.809​
Pagulayan d. Van Boening 11-9, .937 + .910 = 1.847​
Corteza d. Filler 11-9, .915 + .913 = 1.828​

2022
Gorst d. Sanchez-Ruiz 11-6, .949 + .853 = 1.802​
Filler d. Kazakis 11-6, .943 + .909 = 1.852​
Alcaide d. Pagulayan 11-9, .924 + .891 = 1.815​
Gorst d. Shaw 11-8, .937 + .869 = 1.806​

2023
Juszczyszyn d. Filler 11-9, .897 + .929 = 1.826​
Van Boening d. Gomez 11-3, .930 + .885 = 1.815​

2024
Filler d. Fortunski 10-8, .911 + .907 = 1.818​
Gorst d. Shaw 10-7, .941 + .900 = 1.841​
Filler d. Gorst 10-9, .904 + .904 = 1.808​
Filler d. Corteza 10-5, .936 + .865 = 1.801​

2025
Labutis d. Filler 10-7, .953 + .862 = 1.815​

In only 7 of those 18 matches did both players shoot in the 900s (none this year).
 
Even though the numbers are small, here are the break-and-run results for each of this year's players.

First-Round Losers (1 match each)
Krause -- 2 B&R out of 9 breaks = 22%​
Reinhold -- 0 of 7 = 0%​
De Luna -- 2 of 7 = 29%​
Morra -- 0 of 7 = 0%​
Van Boening -- 2 of 8 = 25%​
Styer -- 1 of 7 = 14%​
Gorst -- 2 of 7 = 29%​
Patsura -- 0 of 6 = 0%​
Total -- 9 of 58 = 16%​

Second-Round Losers (2 matches each)
Corteza -- 3 of 13 = 23%​
Chinakhov -- 2 of 13 = 15%​
Neuhausen -- 2 of 15 = 13%​
Pagulayan -- 5 of 14 = 36%​
Total -- 12 of 55 = 22%​

Third-Round Losers (3 matches each)
Gomez -- 5 of 25 = 20%​
Martinez -- 5 of 24 = 21%​
Total -- 10 of 49 = 20%​

Finalists (4 matches each)
Filler -- 8 of 30 = 27%​
Labutis -- 4 of 33 = 12%​
Total -- 12 of 63 = 19%​

Total -- 43 of 225 = 19%

As mentioned in post #1, the 43 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 3-pack (by Filler), 3 alternate-break 2-packs (Gorst, Pagulayan, and Martinez), and 34 singles.
 
Thanx, AtLarge
I would still like to see winner break and the 10-ball count on the break.
 
Wow, a feast for the 'numbers nerds'. ;) Just messin with ya. sorta. ;) Don't know how you do this really. Props for the diggin in into the low-down.
 
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