Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXXIV 9-Ball Open, January 2022

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Turning Stone Classic XXXIV 9-Ball Open played January 6-9, 2022 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York. Free live streaming was provided by AZBtv on the Facebook page of UpState AL.

This was a 123-player double-elimination event. Jayson Shaw won the tournament, defeating Fedor Gorst in the final match. This was Shaw's 7th win at Turning Stone (all in the last 13 events), breaking his tie at 6 wins with Johnny Archer and Shane Van Boening.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches in this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets (4½" corners);​
- Tournament Blue Simonis 860 or 860 HR cloth;​
- Super Aramith Pro balls with a cue ball like the Aramith red-dot ball (no measles) but with a different logo;​
- Diamond black polycarbonate triangle rack;​
- winner breaks from a central box (2 diamonds wide);​
- loser racks, with the 1-ball on the foot spot;​
- cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting;​
- no jump cues allowed;​
- no shot clock;​
- all slop counts; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The stats are for 20 of the 22 matches (294 games) shown on the main streaming table. I excluded one of those matches from the stats because the level of play was much worse than in any of the other matches. Also, I did not watch the losers'-side match between two amateurs that was streamed at 10 am on Saturday. These 20 tracked matches represented 8.3% of the event's total of 241 matches played (13 matches were forfeited), and are listed here in the order in which they were played.

Thursday, January 6, 2022
1. Frankie Hernandez defeated John Moody, Jr. 9-3​
2. Earl Strickland d. Alain Gelinas 9-2​
3. Mika Immonen d. Ray Lee 9-2​
4. John Morra d. Matt Krah 9-6​

Friday, January 7
5. Brandon Shuff d. Shaun Wilkie 9-3​
6. Holden Chin d. Earl Herring 9-5​
7. Immonen d. Bader Al Awadhi 9-8​
8. Pat Fleming d. Greg Antonakos 9-6​
9. Tyler Styer d. Johnny Archer 9-6​

Saturday, January 8
10. Hunter Lombardo d. Ron Casanzio 9-2​
11. Styer d. Bucky Souvanthong 9-8​
12. Jeremy Sossei d. Brad Guthrie 9-7​
13. Demetrius Jelatis d. Lyn Wechsler 9-3​
14. Jayson Shaw d. Earl Strickland 9-8​
15. Morra d. Thorsten Hohmann 9-5​

Sunday, January 9
16. Fedor Gorst d. Immonen 9-8​
17. Abdullah Al Youssef d. Morra 9-8​
18. Gorst d. Shaw 9-3 (Hotseat match)​
19. Shaw d. Al Youssef 9-7 (Semifinal)​
20. Shaw d. Gorst 13-10 (Finals)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 73% (126 of 173) for match winners, 69% (83 of 121) for match losers, and 71% (209 of 294) in total

Breaker won the game -- 72% (124 of 173) for match winners, 50% (61 of 121) for match losers, and 63% (185 of 294) in total

Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 33% (57 of 173) for match winners, 25% (30 of 121) for match losers, and 30% (87 of 294) in total

Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 45% (57 of 126) for match winners, 36% (30 of 83) for match losers, and 42% (87 of 209) in total

Here's a breakdown of the 294 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 149 (51% of the 294 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 60 (20%)​

Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 6 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 20 (7%)​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 30 (10%)​
Breaker lost the game: 29 (10%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 63% (185 of 294) of all games,
He won 71% (149 of 209) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 42% (36 of 85) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 87 break-and-run games represented 30% of all 294 games, 47% of the 185 games won by the breaker, and 42% of the 209 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 87 break-and-run games (including 9's on the break) consisted of one 5-pack (by Shaw), six 3-packs (two by Gorst and one each by Morra, Strickland, Immonen, and Al Youssef), ten 2-packs, and 44 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 87 break-and-run games included 5 9-balls on the break (1.7% of all 294 breaks).
 
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Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXXIV 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 20 tracked matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done three times by Gorst (all B&Rs) and once by Styer (a game loss).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.2 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5, and the distribution was 59% 1 ball, 34% 2 balls, 5% 3 balls, and 2% 4 balls.

• 49% (143 of 294) of the games ended in one inning – 30% (87) won by the breaker (B&R) and 19% (56) won by the non-breaker. 12% (36 of 294) of the games lasted more than 3 innings. The game with the most innings ended on the breaker's 8th visit to the table.

• 40% (119 of 294) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 42% (87 of 209)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 69% (18 of 26)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 24% (14 of 59)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 60% of the time (173 of 289)​
- Won the game in a later inning 14% of the time (40 of 289)​
- Lost the game 26% of the time (76 of 289)​
[Note -- total games used here are 289 rather than 294 to eliminate the 5 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• Excluding the finals race to 13, the loser won an average of 5.3 games in the 19 races to 9. Five matches went to hill/hill; the most lopsided were three at 9-2.

• The average elapsed time for the 19 races to 9 was 80 minutes, or 5.6 minutes per game. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made, so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The race to 9 that was both longest in elapsed time, at 126 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 7.3, was Morra d. Al Youssef 9-8.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at a little over 39 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 3.6, was Immonen d. Lee 9-2.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 11.3 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.6 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.8 games.

• About 38% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
Interesting that pros tend to break-and-run once every three games. This seems to be a consistent number in 9 ball at the pro level.
 
Interesting that pros tend to break-and-run once every three games. This seems to be a consistent number in 9 ball at the pro level.
definitely adds some perspective for when even decent amateurs like many of us here have a long string of games without a B&R.
 
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Interesting that pros tend to break-and-run once every three games. This seems to be a consistent number in 9 ball at the pro level.
It varies a lot depending on the rules and equipment.. For the events I have tracked over the years, it has ranged from below 20% to over 40%. At Turning Stone, the rate of B&Rs has always been well below one-third, averaging in the low 20's, until this current event. Of course, not all of the players in the streamed matches at Turning Stone are pros.
 
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I have tracked the streamed matches (not always all of them) for the last 18 consecutive Turning Stone Events. This current event, TSXXXIV, produced the highest results for all of these stats:

Successful breaks
Prior range -- 54% to 68%​
TSXXXIV -- 71%​

Breaker won the game
Prior range -- 48% to 61%​
TSXXXIV -- 63%​

Break-and-run games, on all breaks
Prior range -- 17% to 24%​
TSXXXIV -- 30%​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks
Prior range -- 29% to 41%​
TSXXXIV -- 42%​
Runouts by player at table after break (last 11 events)
Prior range -- 25% to 39%​
TSXXXIV -- 40%​
For some of these measures, the TSXXXIV result is not much different from the highest of the prior results. But TSXXXIV had the highest result for all of those measures. The rules and equipment have been quite consistent over time at Turning Stone, so that's not an explanation. And the top-finishing players always make multiple appearances on screen, so these results may not be because of just a couple of players.
 
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I have tracked the streamed matches (not always all of them) for the last 18 consecutive Turning Stone Events. This current event, TSXXXIV, produced the highest results for all of these stats:

Successful breaks
Prior range -- 54% to 68%​
TSXXXIV -- 71%​

Breaker won the game
Prior range -- 48% to 61%​
TSXXXIV -- 63%​

Break-and-run games, on all breaks
Prior range -- 17% to 24%​
TSXXXIV -- 30%​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks
Prior range -- 29% to 41%​
TSXXXIV -- 42%​
Runouts by player at table after break (last 11 events)
Prior range -- 25% to 39%​
TSXXXIV -- 40%​
For some of these measures, the TSXXXIV result is not much different from the highest of the prior results. But TSXXXIV had the highest result for all of those measures. The rules and equipment have been quite consistent over time at Turning Stone, so that's not an explanation. And the top-finishing players always make multiple appearances on screen, so these results may not be because of just a couple of players.
Thanks, as usual. Got stats on which player had the highest percentage of successful breaks? I'm guessing Gorst.

pj
chgo
 
It varies a lot depending on the rules and equipment.. For the events I have tracked over the years, it has ranged from below 20% to over 40%. At Turning Stone, the rate of B&Rs has always been well below one-third, averaging in the low 20's, until this current event. Of course, not all of the players in the streamed matches at Turning Stone are pros.
I heard couple times Mark Wilson said that B&R for pros average around 33%. I guess his statistics are based on many different tournaments. This year there were lots of good players on the streamed table at TS so maybe that's good reason your overall average is around the 33% mark.
 
Thanks, as usual. Got stats on which player had the highest percentage of successful breaks? I'm guessing Gorst.

pj
chgo
Well, almost.

28 players appeared in the 20 matches I tracked. 21 of them appeared only once, 3 of them twice, 3 of them thrice, and 1 of them four times. Ray Lee appeared just once, broke only twice (fewest of anyone), and was successful on both. So he had the highest percentage, at 100%.

However, next highest, even including all the guys who appeared just once, was, indeed, Gorst. He appeared 3 times and was successful on 25 of 29 breaks, for 86%.

Successful Breaks
All 21 players who appeared on stream just once: 67% (89 of 132)​
All 7 players (see below) who appeared on stream more than once: 74% (120 of 162)​
Total: 71% (209 of 294)​

86% (25 of 29), Gorst
77% (20 of 26), Morra
76% (13 of 17), Strickland
73% (11 of 15), Al Youssef
71% (12 of 17), Styer
69% (18 of 26), Immonen
66% (21 of 32), Shaw
 
Well, almost.

28 players appeared in the 20 matches I tracked. 21 of them appeared only once, 3 of them twice, 3 of them thrice, and 1 of them four times. Ray Lee appeared just once, broke only twice (fewest of anyone), and was successful on both. So he had the highest percentage, at 100%.

However, next highest, even including all the guys who appeared just once, was, indeed, Gorst. He appeared 3 times and was successful on 25 of 29 breaks, for 86%.

Successful Breaks
All 21 players who appeared on stream just once: 67% (89 of 132)​
All 7 players (see below) who appeared on stream more than once: 74% (120 of 162)​
Total: 71% (209 of 294)​

86% (25 of 29), Gorst
77% (20 of 26), Morra
76% (13 of 17), Strickland
73% (11 of 15), Al Youssef
71% (12 of 17), Styer
69% (18 of 26), Immonen
66% (21 of 32), Shaw
Thanks. You deserve a raise.

Interesting that Shaw, the winner, had the lowest break success rate. He caught a few unlucky kicks...

pj
chg
 
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... This year there were lots of good players on the streamed table at TS so maybe that's good reason your overall average is around the 33% mark.
Maybe, but I'm not sure this event was really different in that regard.
 
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