Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXXIX 9-Ball Open, Aug./Sept. 2024

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Turning Stone Classic XXXIX 9-Ball Open played August 29 - September 1, 2024 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York. Free live streaming was provided by AZBtv on the Facebook page of UpState AL.

This was a 128-player double-elimination event. Moritz Neuhausen won the tournament, defeating Mika Immonen in the final match.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches in this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with 4½" corner pockets;​
- Tournament Blue Simonis 860 cloth, new;​
- Aramith Tournament balls with a measles cue ball;​
- Diamond black polycarbonate triangle rack;​
- winner breaks from a central box (2 diamonds wide);​
- loser racks, with the 1-ball on the foot spot;​
- cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (one violation occurred);​
- no jump cues allowed;​
- no shot clock;​
- all slop counts; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The stats are for 20 matches (287 games) out of the 23 matches shown on the main streaming table. I excluded one of those 23 matches from the stats because the level of play was far worse than in any of the other matches. Also, I did not watch 2 of those 23 matches -- the losers'-side matches that were streamed at 10 am on Friday and Saturday. These 20 tracked matches were 8.0% of the event's total of 251 matches played (3 matches were forfeited), and are listed here in the order in which they were played. One game in Match 6 below is excluded because it was played when the stream went down at Facebook's streaming time limit. So the stats are for 286 games.

Thursday, August 29, 2024
1. Mika Immonen defeated Vince Beaurivage 9-8​
2. Alex Bausch d. Garrett Vaughan 9-5​
3. Jayson Shaw d. Chris Szuter 9-3​
4. Holden Chin d. Frank Wolak 9-8​

Friday, Aug. 30
5. Danny Hewitt d. Johnny Archer 9-5​
6. Christoph Neumayer d. Yesid Garibello 9-4​
7. Jonathan Smith d. Greg Antonakos 9-8​
8. Michael Baoanan d. Tyler Henninger 9-2​
9. Jimmy Rivera d. Rachel Lang 9-1​

Saturday, Aug. 31
10. Jeremy Sossei d. John Francisco 9-2​
11. Moritz Neuhausen d. Mustafa Alnar 9-8​
12. Hewitt d. Kevin Clark 9-8​
13. Jonas Souto d. Tom Cayer 9-2​
14. Immonen d. Lukas Fracasso-Verner 9-3​
15. Bucky Souvanthong d. Aaron Greenwood 9-4​

Sunday, September 1
16. Alnar d. Shaw 9-4​
17. Baoanan d. Sossei 9-5​
18. Neuhausen d. Immonen 9-6 (Hotseat match)​
19. Immonen d. Baoanan 9-6 (Semifinal)​
20. Neuhausen d. Immonen 13-11 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 69% (122 of 177)​
Match losers -- 56% (61 of 109)​
Total -- 64% (183 of 286)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 62% (110 of 177)​
Match losers -- 33% (36 of 109)​
Total -- 51% (146 of 286)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 19% (33 of 177)​
Match losers -- 9% (10 of 109)​
Total -- 15% (43 of 286)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 27% (33 of 122)​
Match losers -- 16% (10 of 61)​
Total -- 23% (43 of 183)

Here's a breakdown of the 286 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 109 (38% of the 286 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 74 (26%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 18 (6%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 33 (12%)​
Breaker lost the game: 48 (17%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 51% (146 of 286) of all games,​
He won 60% (109 of 183) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 36% (37 of 103) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 43 break-and-run games represented 15% of all 286 games, 29% of the 146 games won by the breaker, and 23% of the 183 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 43 break-and-run games (including 9-balls on the break) consisted of four 2-packs (one each by Chin, Hewitt, Souto, and Neuhausen) and 35 singles. No one in these 20 matches broke and ran more than 2 games in a row.

9-balls on the break -- The 43 break-and-run games included 4 9-balls on the break (1.4% of all 286 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on a fouled break.
 
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Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXXIX 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 20 tracked matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 3 times -- by Bausch and Alnar in B&Rs and by Neumayer in a game loss. Three balls were made on the break 8 times -- 6 game wins (2 by B&R) and 2 game losses.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5, and the distribution was 59% 1 ball, 35% 2 balls, and 6% 3 or 4 balls.

• Number of innings:
35% (101 of 286) of the games ended in one inning – 43 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 58 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
34% (97 of 286) of the games ended in the second inning.​
31% (88 of 286) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most visits to the table ended on the non-breaker's 12th visit.​

• 25% (72 of 286) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 23% (43 of 183)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 45% (10 of 22)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 23% (19 of 81)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 46% of the time (130 of 282)​
- Won the game in a later inning 20% of the time (56 of 282)​
- Lost the game 34% of the time (96 of 282)​
[Note -- total games used here are 282 rather than 286 to eliminate the 4 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​
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• Excluding the Finals race to 13, the loser won an average of 4.8 games in the 19 races to 9. Five matches went to hill/hill; the most lopsided match was one at 9-1.

• The average elapsed time for the 19 races to 9 was 86 minutes, or 6.2 minutes per game. Including the Finals, the average minutes per game for all 20 matches was also 6.2. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made, so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The race to 9 that was longest in elapsed time, at 130 minutes, was Neuhausen d. Alnar 9-8. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 8.1, was Baoanan d. Sossei 9-5

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at about 57 minutes, was Souto d. Cayer 9-2. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.6, was Hewitt d. Archer 9-5.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 13.0 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.6 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.3 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 48% of all games and in 56% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
64% of breaks were successful. That’s impressive for an opponent hand racks event. I would’ve thought lower based on players not giving their opponents the best rack they could.
 
64% of breaks were successful. That’s impressive for an opponent hand racks event. I would’ve thought lower based on players not giving their opponents the best rack they could.
There was quite a bit of rack checking and re-racking in some of the matches. The successful-break percentage rose each day:
Day 1 -- 50%​
Day 2 -- 56%​
Day 3 -- 68%​
Day 4 -- 77% (including the final match at 88%)​
 
There was quite a bit of rack checking and re-racking in some of the matches. The successful-break percentage rose each day:
Day 1 -- 50%​
Day 2 -- 56%​
Day 3 -- 68%​
Day 4 -- 77% (including the final match at 88%)​
That tracks. I’ve heard Zuglan’s players meeting speeches before where he announces no re-racking, just play. But never really ends up that way. Wild to see the percents jump so high. Let’s you see the quality of play and concern rise as the event weeds out.
 
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