Break Stats -- Turning Stone XIX 9-Ball, Aug. 2012

[AtLarge]

I watched 11 of the Turning Stone XIX 9-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats/AZB. The conditions for this event included: 9-foot Diamond table, Simonis cloth, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks, loser racks (unless both players want breaker racks), break from the box, fouls on all balls, no jump cues allowed, all slop counts.

The 11 matches (147 games) I watched were as follows:

Thurs., Aug. 23 -- Dechaine def. Klatt 9-0, Perry d. Goulding 9-4, and Oliveira d. Saez 9-8.​

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Fri., Aug. 24 -- Hundal d. Ulrich 9-6 and Archer d. Bateman 9-2.​

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Sat., Aug. 25 -- Shuff d. D'Alfonso 9-5.​

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Sun., Aug. 26 -- Dechaine d. Hundal 9-5, Shuff d. M. Morra 9-2, Putnam d. Dechaine 9-2, Dechaine d. Shuff 9-6, and Dechaine d. Putnam 13-4.​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 68% of the time (100 of 147), won 53% of the games (78 of 147), and broke and ran 21% of the games (31 of 147).

Eight of the 31 B&R games were by Mike Dechaine in the finals (67% of his 12 breaks in that match!).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 147 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​

Breaker won the game: 62 (42% of the 147 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 38 (26%)​

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Breaker fouled on the break:​

Breaker won the game: 3 (2%)​

Breaker lost the game: 9 (6%)​

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Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​

Breaker won the game: 13 (9%)​

Breaker lost the game: 22 (15%)​

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Therefore, whereas the breaker won 53% (78) of all 147 games,​

He won 62% (62 of 100) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​

He won 25% (3 of 12) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​

He won 37% (13 of 35) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​

He won 34% (16 of 47) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

9-balls on the break:
The 31 break-and-run games included 5 9-balls on the break (3.4% of the 147 breaks).

 

[RobMan]

........
Eight of the 31 B&R games were by Mike Dechaine in the finals (67% of his 12 breaks in that match!).

Interesting stats thanks! The above clearly illustrates how strong Dechaine played in the finals. Wow!

 

[AtLarge]

Interesting stats thanks! The above clearly illustrates how strong Dechaine played in the finals. Wow!

Yes; it was a bravura performance.

He missed his very first shot of the match (a tough 1-9 combination); fouled on an attempted kick in Game 2; missed a pretty easy 8-ball while stretching in Game 4; snookered himself for the 4-ball in Game 11; and missed a long, tough cut on the 1-ball in Game 13. Otherwise it was mistake-free pool, including those 8 break-and-run games.

 

[Jude Rosenstock]

I watched 11 of the Turning Stone XIX 9-ball matches streamed by Accu-Stats/AZB. The conditions for this event included: 9-foot Diamond table, Simonis cloth, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks, loser racks (unless both players want breaker racks), break from the box, fouls on all balls, no jump cues allowed, all slop counts.

The 11 matches (147 games) I watched were as follows:

Thurs., Aug. 23 -- Dechaine def. Klatt 9-0, Perry d. Goulding 9-4, and Oliveira d. Saez 9-8.

Fri., Aug. 24 -- Hundal d. Ulrich 9-6 and Archer d. Bateman 9-2.

Sat., Aug. 25 -- Shuff d. D'Alfonso 9-5.

Sun., Aug. 26 -- Dechaine d. Hundal 9-5, Shuff d. M. Morra 9-2, Putnam d. Dechaine 9-2, Dechaine d. Shuff 9-6, and Dechaine d. Putnam 13-4.​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 68% of the time (100 of 147), won 53% of the games (78 of 147), and broke and ran 21% of the games (31 of 147).

Eight of the 31 B&R games were by Mike Dechaine in the finals (67% of his 12 breaks in that match!).

Here's a little more detailed breakdown of the 147 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:

• Breaker won the game: 62 (42% of the 147 games)
• Breaker lost the game: 38 (26%)

Breaker fouled on the break:

• Breaker won the game: 3 (2%)
• Breaker lost the game: 9 (6%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):

• Breaker won the game: 13 (9%)
• Breaker lost the game: 22 (15%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 53% (78) of all 147 games,

- He won 62% (62 of 100) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
- He won 25% (3 of 12) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
- He won 37% (13 of 35) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
- He won 34% (16 of 47) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

9-balls on the break:
The 31 break-and-run games included 5 9-balls on the break (3.4% of the 147 breaks).

Wow, this is really great info. If you plan on doing this again, I think it would also be very useful to add a few other break results such as:

1. Made a ball, did not foul and elects to shoot/push
2. Did not make a ball or fouled, opponent elects to shoot/push

147 games is a small sample-set but already you can make great deductions like

1. Fouling on the break is suicide
2. The breaker doesn't win much more than half the time.


If you're tracking this on an Excel file or something and plan on doing this for several events, I would also advise adding a few columns like, "Table-make", "Event", "Pocket Size". In general, jot down as much as possible especially if doing so isn't terribly time-consuming. You may have more questions one day and it'd be great to sort through it quickly.

 

[jalapus logan]

I really appreciate and enjoy your stats - thanks once again! Pool really needs statistics to separate reality from myth. I wonder if there is a good way here on AZB to consolidate your stats and possibly collaborate with other members. It is a labor intensive endeavor, but one that is sorely needed. Perhaps a subforum? Just thinking...

 

[jalapus logan]

Oh yeah, one more thought: it would be interesting, at least to me, to see a distribution of the number of times folks ran packages. For instance, how many 2 pack, three packs, etc. Some people say that 9 ball is too easy of a game, and perhaps it is, but a break & run % of 19-22% or so does not suggest to me that it is.

 

[AtLarge]

Oh yeah, one more thought: it would be interesting, at least to me, to see a distribution of the number of times folks ran packages. For instance, how many 2 pack, three packs, etc. Some people say that 9 ball is too easy of a game, and perhaps it is, but a break & run % of 19-22% or so does not suggest to me that it is.

For the 147 games reported on in this thread, the 31 break-and-run games (21%) were distributed as follows:

Singles -- 12
2-packs -- 4 (Dechaine, Oliveira, Hundal, Shuff)
3-packs -- 2 (Shuff and Dechaine)
4-packs -- none
5-packs -- 1 (Dechaine)

Excluding the finals match (8 B&R's in 17 games), the B&R percentage was 18% for the other 10 matches (23 out of 130). This included no B&R's in the Dechaine/Hundal match Sunday morning!

 

[AtLarge]

Wow, this is really great info. If you plan on doing this again, I think it would also be very useful to add a few other break results such as:

1. Made a ball, did not foul and elects to shoot/push
2. Did not make a ball or fouled, opponent elects to shoot/push

147 games is a small sample-set but already you can make great deductions like

1. Fouling on the break is suicide
2. The breaker doesn't win much more than half the time.


If you're tracking this on an Excel file or something and plan on doing this for several events, I would also advise adding a few columns like, "Table-make", "Event", "Pocket Size". In general, jot down as much as possible especially if doing so isn't terribly time-consuming. You may have more questions one day and it'd be great to sort through it quickly.

Jude -- I'm glad you're a numbers fan! You apparently haven't noticed that I've been posting breaking stats from quite a few streamed events for the past couple of years. You could look up those threads and posts if you are interested.

As to your last paragraph, I don't use any software, but I do try to note the "conditions" under which each event's streamed matches were played. For example, the first paragraph of post #1 in this thread lists the conditions for the Turning Stone XIX matches.

As to stats for pushes, I'll put that in a separate post to follow.

 

[AtLarge]

What were the numbers for pushes at the Turning Stone XIX event? Conventional wisdom is that the player who pushes out is at a disadvantage, because it is the other player who then has the choice on whether to shoot.

Out of the 147 games that I watched in 11 streamed matches, 20 games (14%) involved a push out, and the results were as follows:

• Breaker pushed and won the game -- 8
• Breaker pushed and lost the game -- 3
• Non-breaker pushed and won the game -- 4
• Non-breaker pushed and lost the game -- 5

So, overall, the person who pushed won 12 of the 20 games (60%) and lost 8 (40%). Breakers who pushed won a substantial majority of their pushes, while non-breakers who pushed came out fairly even!

The pusher winning 60% of the time contradicts conventional wisdom. But the sample size is quite small.

Only 6 of the 20 pushes were returned (passed back to the pusher to shoot), but the pusher won 5 of those 6 games.

For comparison, here is essentially the same post regarding the Turning Stone XVIII event from last December: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=3363888&postcount=5

 

[RADAR]

Finals was great and the tourney as well, except i thought the cloth looked to be very fast. Which means no stroke pool! Actually speed is like 3 cushion billiard cloth.

 

[Jude Rosenstock]

What were the numbers for pushes at the Turning Stone XIX event? Conventional wisdom is that the player who pushes out is at a disadvantage, because it is the other player who then has the choice on whether to shoot.

Out of the 147 games that I watched in 11 streamed matches, 20 games (14%) involved a push out, and the results were as follows:

• Breaker pushed and won the game -- 8
• Breaker pushed and lost the game -- 3
• Non-breaker pushed and won the game -- 4
• Non-breaker pushed and lost the game -- 5

So, overall, the person who pushed won 12 of the 20 games (60%) and lost 8 (40%). Breakers who pushed won a substantial majority of their pushes, while non-breakers who pushed came out fairly even!

The pusher winning 60% of the time contradicts conventional wisdom. But the sample size is quite small.

Only 6 of the 20 pushes were returned (passed back to the pusher to shoot), but the pusher won 5 of those 6 games.

For comparison, here is essentially the same post regarding the Turning Stone XVIII event from last December: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=3363888&postcount=5

Thanks! It's information like this that can help dictate strategy in situations that typically yield to "conventional wisdom". I've often wondered what the winning percentage is in situations where the breaker doesn't make a ball. This is really helpful. I'll keep an eye out for more threads by you. If you ever decide to post an overall, please shoot me a PM!

Thanks again!