Break Stats -- Ultimate Pool USA Colorado Shootout (8-Ball), September 2024

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Ultimate Pool USA Colorado Shootout (8-Ball), played September 13, 2024 at the Wreck Room Underground in Westminster, CO near Denver. Streaming was free on YouTube. Justin Bergman won the event, defeating Tom Cousins in the final match.

This was a 16-player invitational, single-elimination event played entirely on Friday, Sept. 13. All races were to 6 unless cut short by the match clock (see below). The primary commentators were Steven Jamieson and Steven White.

The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 7-foot table with corner pockets of approximately 4" or 4 1/8" (said Steven White);​
- CPBA cloth (gray);​
- Aramith balls with a red-logo cue ball;​
- referee racks using a "Black Edition" Smart Rack (aluminum), with the 8-ball on the spot;​
- alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- table open after the break, but "dirty" (mixed-suit) combinations not allowed on first shot;​
- ball in hand behind the head string after a pocket scratch on the break, but incoming player can shoot in any direction;​
- ball in hand anywhere on the table after the cue ball is sent off the table on the break;​
- an 8-ball made on the break, with no foul, wins the game;​
- no call shots;​
- intentional fouls not allowed (loss of game);​
- no jump shots allowed with any cue;​
- foul on all balls;​
- a match clock of 30 minutes of playing time (excludes racking)​
- a shot clock of 30-seconds during the first 20 minutes on the match clock and 15 seconds thereafter, with one 15-second extension allowed per player per game;​
- if the shot clock runs out, the player ahead in completed games wins the match. If the score is tied in completed games, they play a speed-pool shootout. Each player breaks 6 balls that are racked in a triangle, and then pockets all 6 balls. The player who does this in the shorter elapsed time wins the match.​
- lag for opening break.​

The stats are for all 15 matches (124 games) played in the event. The 3 games that were halted when the match clock expired are not included. In the order played, the matches were:

First Round
1. Ricky Evans defeated Shane Thompson 6-5​
2. Tom Cousins d. Damian Pongpanik 6-3​
3. Chris Melling d. Tyrel Blowers 6-0​
4. Jordan Shepherd d. Chris Reinhold 6-1​
5. Gabe Owen d. Joven Bustamante 6-4​
6. David Matlock d. Sofia Mast 6-3​
7. Chase Stumfoll d. Cleve Thompson 4-3 (match clock expired)​
8. Justin Bergman d. Adam Sisneros 6-0​

Quarterfinals
9. Cousins d. Evans 6-2​
10. Shepherd d. Melling 5-5 + shootout after match clock expired​
11. Matlock d. Owen 5-4 (match clock expired)​
12. Bergman d. Stumfoll 6-3​

Semifinals
13. Cousins d. Shepherd 6-3​
14. Bergman d. Matlock 6-1​

Finals
15. Bergman d. Cousins 6-1​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 72% (44 of 61)​
Match losers -- 60% (38 of 63)​
Total -- 66% (82 of 124)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 79% (48 of 61)​
Match losers -- 40% (25 of 63)​
Total -- 59% (73 of 124)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 51% (31 of 61)​
Match losers -- 32% (20 of 63)​
Total -- 41% (51 of 124)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 70% (31 of 44)​
Match losers -- 53% (20 of 38)​
Total -- 62% (51 of 82)

Here's a breakdown of the 124 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 60 (48% of the 124 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 22 (18%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (3%)​
Breaker lost the game: 11 (9%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 9 (7%)​
Breaker lost the game: 18 (15%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 59% (73 of 124) of all games,​
He won 73% (60 of 82) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 31% (13 of 42) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 51 break-and-run games represented 41% of all 124 games, 70% of the 73 games won by the breaker, and 62% of the 82 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 51 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Thompson, in a losing match), 1 alternate-break 3-pack (Bergman), 9 alternate-break 2-packs, and 26 singles.

8-balls on the break -- The 51 break-and-run games included 2 8-balls on the break (1.6% of all 124 breaks).
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2024 Colorado Shootout (8-Ball)

• The most balls made on a single break was 5, done just once, by Shane Thompson in a B&R. Four balls were made on the break 3 times -- 2 B&R wins and 1 loss.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.3 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.8, and the distribution was 44% 1 ball, 37% 2 balls, and 20% 3 or more balls.

• 77% (96 of 124) of the games ended in one inning – 51 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 45 games on the non-breaker's first inning.

• 60% (74 of 124) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 69% (51 of 82)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 27% (9 of 15)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 60% (14 of 27)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 62% of the time (77 of 124)​
- Won the game in a later inning 7% of the time (9 of 124)​
- Lost the game 31% of the time (38 of 124)​

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 8.3 games, other fouls 1 for every 6.5 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.5 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 12% of all games and in about 21% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
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