Skill vs luck equity

Tin Man

Tin Man

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I didn't make this video for the public, it was for my private training group, so it's not high production quality. I decided to share this one with my AZB peeps because there was a discussion last week about APA players blasting and hoping. I wanted to cover why I think new school players sometimes over-correct and give up winning chances facing tough situations trying to shoot low percentage shots. We don't want to go to luck mode often but we don't want to give up equity for no reason either. Your job is to figure out which is which and develop your skills so that it's skill more and more often. But do what you need to do to win.

 
Excellent content Demetrius...

Not sure if I can find it, but I went through a solid kick safe battle a little while back that got streamed. At any rate... We both had a couple of solid kicks at return safeties until finally I put my opponent in a spot where he simply couldn't reliably control the outcome. End result was Skylar type swing at the kick and hope. Worked out for my opponent as well. Credit to him for recognizing the situation and adapting.

Sometimes you just gotta know when to swing for the fences... so to speak
 
Great video! This is the "luck" I was thinking about. Calculated luck. Sometimes you gotta give the best chance for luck if there's nothing else.
 
brilliant analysis, including taking the mathematically best shot, even when both options are less than ideal, still one will be better than the other.
Like hitting a "16" in blackjack, when the dealer shows a ten......you're only (say) 30% to win by hitting, but 20% if you dont.

(As you mentioned, some still wont take the "luck shot" because they dont want to appear to be a "banger")
 
Nicely explained. The only thing omitted was the best way to play the kick such as the speed of the cue ball,
center ball roll versus follow, aim point on the rail and things like that. I wouldn’t hit the cue ball that hard to
kick the 3 ball but I would use medium to firm speed striking the cue ball 1/2 tip above center. Selecting the
location on the rail where to kick comes from experience since the cue ball reacts to the rail’s compression.
Overall, I think this was a great explanation and his teaching style was easy and very straight forward as well.
 
Very excellent opening post...thank you for making an excellent point. Hey, slim odds are better than no odds, right?
 
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Skill and luck are complimentary over the long haul. Skilled people "create" better luck by giving themselves more positive opportunities by executing at a high level.
 
Thanks for sharing! I haven’t had a chance to watch the whole thing, but your initial example resonates. I would have taken a low percentage shot and sold out there.

Dang man, I need to sharpen my skills and my mind. Feelin’ like a total noob right now.
 
Bavafongoul said:
Nicely explained. The only thing omitted was the best way to play the kick such as the speed of the cue ball,
center ball roll versus follow, aim point on the rail and things like that. I wouldn’t hit the cue ball that hard to
kick the 3 ball but I would use medium to firm speed striking the cue ball 1/2 tip above center. Selecting the
location on the rail where to kick comes from experience since the cue ball reacts to the rail’s compression.
Overall, I think this was a great explanation and his teaching style was easy and very straight forward as well.
Click to expand...
Given his talent and the length of time he uses studying the shot etc., IMO I think he knew he was going to kick the 3 ball into the 9 ball so that's why he shot it with such speed.
 
Excellent video and analysis tin man. I would love to see you post more videos like this, with interesting tactical/safety situations, and you giving your analysis.
 
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