You can't luck yourself a Mosconi Cup win

JarnoV

JarnoV
Silver Member
There seems to be a misunderstanding that luck has a big role in Mosconi Cup, because the individual races are so short. It is true that the outcome of an individual race to 6 match is determined largely by chance. Especially between skilled professionals. But if either team has a clear advantage, they will be a huge favorite to win the whole Cup even if they are going to lose some of the individual matches.

Overall, the whole Mosconi Cup is more like a race to 60. You could arrange a single challenge match between two players just like Mosconi Cup: whoever first wins 11 race to 6 matches is the winner. Two players who are relatively even skilled would both win several individual matches, but the better player would almost always come out as the overall winner.

The teams that have faced eath other in recent years have been reasonably even-skilled so that the scores have been pretty tight. This means that the whole Cup has been decided in a individual match towards the end of the Cup, but that doesn't mean that the winner is decided by chance. Statistically, the format of Mosconi Cup should be a pretty good to decide which is team played better.
 
I guess if you completely throw out the mathematics behind probability and statistics several races to 6 would be exactly like a race to 60. Therefore The Mosconi Cup would indeed be a good indicator of the better team....

Of course some people won't throw that small detail out and I am sure someone will work out the numbers over the rest of the weekend....
 
Yeah I disagree that it is anything like a race to 60. If it does come down to the last few matches the team who ends up losing could very well end up winning more total games. Not saying the teams that win don't deserve it because they did do what it took to win under the format given but I disagree that the better teams will win more often necessarily. I find it much more up to chance (who's getting the rolls, and team momentum).
 
It's been my experience that very few fans of any game truly understand the notion of chance, not because of flawed mathematical understanding but of the need to humanize the argument.
 
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