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Break Stats -- 2016 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2016
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Break Stats -- 2016 U.S. Open 9-Ball, Oct. 2016 - 10-22-2016, 10:31 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from 24 of the 39 9-Ball matches streamed this past week on a pay-per-view basis by Accu-Stats from the 2016 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship in Norfolk, VA.

Because the streaming was unstable until Tuesday afternoon, these stats exclude the first 14 streamed matches (Sunday, Monday, and the first two matches Tuesday). They also exclude one match I had to miss on Thursday.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot Paragon table with pro-cut pockets;
- blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Accu-Rack racking template;
- Aramith Tournament balls with the measles cue ball;
- winner breaks from the box -- 9" to each side of the long string;
- breaker racks for himself with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball at the back of the rack;
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 balls pass the head string or are pocketed;
- foul on all balls;
- jump cues allowed;
- for most matches, a 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and
- all slop counts.

The 24 matches (422 games) tracked were as follows. The figures in parentheses for some of the matches are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

Tues., Oct. 18, 2016
Jorge Rodriguez (.857) defeated Frankie Hernandez (.822) 11-9, Jayson Shaw (.905) d. Warren Kiamco (.877) 11-9,
Alex Pagulayan d. Han Haoxiang 11-8, and Jung-Lin Chang (.868) d. Shane Van Boening (.762) 11-4.

Wed., Oct. 19
Ping-Chung Ko d. Stevie Moore 11-1, Kenichi Uchigaki (.888) d. Skyler Woodward (.813) 11-6,
Niels Feijen (.933) d. Konrad Juszczyszyn (.679) 11-2, Alex Pagulayan d. Mark Gray 11-5,
Abdullah Alshammare (.902) d. Kai-Lun Hsu (.856) 11-8, and David Alcaide d. Justin Bergman 11-9.
[Note: the stats exclude 1 game from the Alcaide/Bergman match because of stream freezing.]

Thurs., Oct. 20
Mike Dechaine d. Darren Appleton 11-2, Warren Kiamco (.925) d. Radoslaw Babica (.944) 11-6,
J-L Chang d. Brandon Shuff 11-6, D. Alcaide (.889) d. A. Alshammari (.627) 11-3, and J. Shaw (.933) d. Pin-Yi Ko (.899) 11-10.
[Note: I missed the first 3 games of the Kiamco/Babica match, so the stats exclude those games.]

Fri., Oct. 21
A. Pagulayan d. P-C Ko 11-5, Dennis Orcollo (.920) d. P-Y Ko (.876) 11-9.
J-L Chang (.925) d. Jeremy Jones (.829) 11-9, J. Shaw (.936) d. D. Alcaide (.889) 11-6,
S. Van Boening d. J. Jones 11-5, and D. Orcollo (.875) d. D. Alcaide (.905) 11-10.

Sat., Oct. 22
J-L Chang (.949) d. J. Shaw (.930) 11-10, S Van Boening (.907) d. J Shaw (.833) 11-9 (Semifinal), and
S. Van Boening (.941) d. J-L Chang (.910) 13-9 (FINAL)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not break illegally or foul) 57% of the time (240 of 422), won 54% of the games (227 of 422), and broke and ran 23% of the games (96 of 422). The break was illegal 20% of the time (86 of 422).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 422 breaks.

Legal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 164 (39% of the 422 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 76 (18%)

Illegal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 16 (4%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 22 (5%)

Fouled (includes 5 breaks that were both fouled and illegal):
  • Breaker won the game: 6 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 34 (8%)

Legal, dry, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 23 (5%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 38 (9%)

Illegal, dry, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 18 (4%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 25 (6%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 54% of all games (227 of 422),
  • He won 68% (164 of 240) of the games in which he broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul (successful breaks).
  • He won 42% (16 of 38) of the games in which he broke illegally, made at least one ball, and did not foul.
  • He won 15% (6 of 40) of the games in which he fouled on the break (whether wet, dry, legal, or illegal).
  • He won 38% (23 of 61) of the games in which he broke legally, dry, and did not foul.
  • He won 42% (18 of 43) of the games in which he broke illegally, dry, and did not foul.
  • He won 35% (63 of 182) of the games in which the break was illegal, fouled, or dry (all unsuccessful breaks).

Break-and-run games -- The 96 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 422 games, 42% of the 227 games won by the breaker, and 40% of the 240 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 96 break-and-run games consisted of 1 4-pack (Van Boening), 3 3-packs (2 by Shaw and 1 by Van Boening), 11 2-packs, and 61 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 96 break-and-run games included just two 9-balls on the break (0.5% of the 422 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on the break when the breaker scratched, so it was spotted. With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.
  
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10-22-2016, 10:31 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2016 U. S. Open 9-Ball Championship
[This relates only to the 24 streamed matches that I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once -- Abdullah Alshammari. He won that game by B&R.

The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.1. On successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul), the average was 1.6.

49% (205 of 422) of the games ended in one inning 23% (96) won by the breaker (B&R) and 26% (109) won by the non-breaker. 9% (36 of 422) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

40% (170 of 422) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 40% (96 of 240)
By the non-breaker after wet but illegal breaks -- 32% (12 of 38)
By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 83% (33 of 40)
By the non-breaker after dry breaks 28% (29 of 104)

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 64% of the time (269 of 420)
- Won the game in a later inning 12% of the time (50 of 420)
- Lost the game 24% of the time (101 of 420)
[Note -- total games used here are 420 rather than 422 to eliminate the 2 games in which no ball was made after the break.]

For the 23 races to 11 (i.e., excluding the finals race to 13), the loser won an average of 6.6 games. Three matches went to hill/hill; none were shutouts.

The longest match in elapsed time, at 158 minutes, was Alcaide d. Bergman. The shortest match in elapsed time, at 70 minutes, was Dechaine d. Appleton. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

The average elapsed time for the 23 races to 11 was 105 minutes, averaging 6.0 minutes per game.

The match highest in average minutes per game, at 7.9 min./game for the 20 games, was Alcaide d. Bergman. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.0 min./game for the 20 games, was Van Boening d. Shaw.

Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 11 games, other fouls 1 for every 5 games, and missed shots 1 for every 2 games.

About 36% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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10-22-2016, 10:42 PM

Very interesting. Thanks a lot

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10-22-2016, 10:55 PM

Break stats for the finals?

Shane's successful and BNR rate was very high.
  
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10-22-2016, 11:46 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gxman View Post
Break stats for the finals?

Shane's successful and BNR rate was very high.
Final match break results:

Van Boening broke 12 times:
9 successful (won 7, lost 2) -- includes 6 B&R's (50%)
1 wet but illegal (won)
1 fouled (lost)
1 legal but dry (lost)

Chang broke 10 times:
4 successful (won 3, lost 1) -- includes 2 B&R's (20%)
1 wet but illegal (lost)
2 fouled (lost both)
2 legal but dry (won both)
1 both dry and illegal (lost)
  
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10-23-2016, 01:22 AM

I compared these stats with your findings from the 2012 US Open. Shane also won that year, but one of the big differences is that 3 balls only had to go past the side pocket or be pocketed.

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=293041


Now you did have more games logged in 2012, but here are some comparisons.

Legal Break

2016 - 57%
2012 - 62%

Breaker Won the Game

2016 - 54%
2012 - 55%

Break and Run

2016 - 23%
2012 - 23%


And for fun, I also compared these with the 2013 Turning Stone that Shane also won. Difference there is they use old school racking rules. Wooden rack, only 4 balls to a rail, 1 on the spot.

http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=303698

Legal Break

2016 - 57%
2013 TS - 58%

Breaker Won the Game

2016 - 54%
2013 TS - 51%

Break and Run

2016 - 23%
2013 TS - 19%
  
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10-23-2016, 01:33 AM

AtLarge

If it's not too much trouble, could you provide the basic stats for just the matches below? All the players are top 100 in Fargo, so I'm curious to see if their numbers are higher.

Also, do you know if the numbers changed as the week went on and players learned the break better?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post

Tues., Oct. 18, 2016
Jayson Shaw (.905) d. Warren Kiamco (.877) 11-9,
Alex Pagulayan d. Han Haoxiang 11-8, and Jung-Lin Chang (.868) d. Shane Van Boening (.762) 11-4.

Wed., Oct. 19
Kenichi Uchigaki (.888) d. Skyler Woodward (.813) 11-6,
Alex Pagulayan d. Mark Gray 11-5,
David Alcaide d. Justin Bergman 11-9.
[Note: the stats exclude 1 game from the Alcaide/Bergman match because of stream freezing.]

Thurs., Oct. 20
Mike Dechaine d. Darren Appleton 11-2
J. Shaw (.933) d. Pin-Yi Ko (.899) 11-10.

Fri., Oct. 21
A. Pagulayan d. P-C Ko 11-5, Dennis Orcollo (.920) d. P-Y Ko (.876) 11-9.
J. Shaw (.936) d. D. Alcaide (.889) 11-6,
D. Orcollo (.875) d. D. Alcaide (.905) 11-10.

Sat., Oct. 22
J-L Chang (.949) d. J. Shaw (.930) 11-10, S Van Boening (.907) d. J Shaw (.833) 11-9 (Semifinal), and
S. Van Boening (.941) d. J-L Chang (.910) 13-9 (FINAL)
  
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10-23-2016, 01:35 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by BeiberLvr View Post
...
Breaker Won the Game

2016 - 54%
2013 TS - 51%
...
Most people think the break is much more of an advantage than this for pro players.


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10-23-2016, 09:37 AM

The breaks stats would look different if illegal breaks were eliminated.
One match, I saw two balls made on the break, THREE times....break was illegal.
...the balls were hit hard enough, sometimes balls just run into each other.

I would like to see the break box moved back....
...ONE DIAMOND SQUARE, MIDDLE OF THE SHORT RAIL.
...let 'em break the best way they know how.


And no player racks


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10-23-2016, 09:44 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Here are some aggregate break statistics from 24 of the 39 9-Ball matches streamed this past week on a pay-per-view basis by Accu-Stats from the 2016 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship in Norfolk, VA.

Because the streaming was unstable until Tuesday afternoon, these stats exclude the first 14 streamed matches (Sunday, Monday, and the first two matches Tuesday). They also exclude one match I had to miss on Thursday.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot Paragon table with pro-cut pockets;
- blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Accu-Rack racking template;
- Aramith Tournament balls with the measles cue ball;
- winner breaks from the box -- 9" to each side of the long string;
- breaker racks for himself with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball at the back of the rack;
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 balls pass the head string or are pocketed;
- foul on all balls;
- jump cues allowed;
- for most matches, a 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and
- all slop counts.

The 24 matches (422 games) tracked were as follows. The figures in parentheses for some of the matches are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

Tues., Oct. 18, 2016
Jorge Rodriguez (.857) defeated Frankie Hernandez (.822) 11-9, Jayson Shaw (.905) d. Warren Kiamco (.877) 11-9,
Alex Pagulayan d. Han Haoxiang 11-8, and Jung-Lin Chang (.868) d. Shane Van Boening (.762) 11-4.

Wed., Oct. 19
Ping-Chung Ko d. Stevie Moore 11-1, Kenichi Uchigaki (.888) d. Skyler Woodward (.813) 11-6,
Niels Feijen (.933) d. Konrad Juszczyszyn (.679) 11-2, Alex Pagulayan d. Mark Gray 11-5,
Abdullah Alshammare (.902) d. Kai-Lun Hsu (.856) 11-8, and David Alcaide d. Justin Bergman 11-9.
[Note: the stats exclude 1 game from the Alcaide/Bergman match because of stream freezing.]

Thurs., Oct. 20
Mike Dechaine d. Darren Appleton 11-2, Warren Kiamco (.925) d. Radoslaw Babica (.944) 11-6,
J-L Chang d. Brandon Shuff 11-6, D. Alcaide (.889) d. A. Alshammari (.627) 11-3, and J. Shaw (.933) d. Pin-Yi Ko (.899) 11-10.
[Note: I missed the first 3 games of the Kiamco/Babica match, so the stats exclude those games.]

Fri., Oct. 21
A. Pagulayan d. P-C Ko 11-5, Dennis Orcollo (.920) d. P-Y Ko (.876) 11-9.
J-L Chang (.925) d. Jeremy Jones (.829) 11-9, J. Shaw (.936) d. D. Alcaide (.889) 11-6,
S. Van Boening d. J. Jones 11-5, and D. Orcollo (.875) d. D. Alcaide (.905) 11-10.

Sat., Oct. 22
J-L Chang (.949) d. J. Shaw (.930) 11-10, S Van Boening (.907) d. J Shaw (.833) 11-9 (Semifinal), and
S. Van Boening (.941) d. J-L Chang (.910) 13-9 (FINAL)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not break illegally or foul) 57% of the time (240 of 422), won 54% of the games (227 of 422), and broke and ran 23% of the games (96 of 422). The break was illegal 20% of the time (86 of 422).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 422 breaks.

Legal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 164 (39% of the 422 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 76 (18%)

Illegal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 16 (4%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 22 (5%)

Fouled (includes 5 breaks that were both fouled and illegal):
  • Breaker won the game: 6 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 34 (8%)

Legal, dry, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 23 (5%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 38 (9%)

Illegal, dry, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 18 (4%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 25 (6%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 54% of all games (227 of 422),
  • He won 68% (164 of 240) of the games in which he broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul (successful breaks).
  • He won 42% (16 of 38) of the games in which he broke illegally, made at least one ball, and did not foul.
  • He won 15% (6 of 40) of the games in which he fouled on the break (whether wet, dry, legal, or illegal).
  • He won 38% (23 of 61) of the games in which he broke legally, dry, and did not foul.
  • He won 42% (18 of 43) of the games in which he broke illegally, dry, and did not foul.
  • He won 35% (63 of 182) of the games in which the break was illegal, fouled, or dry (all unsuccessful breaks).

Break-and-run games -- The 96 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 422 games, 42% of the 227 games won by the breaker, and 40% of the 240 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 96 break-and-run games consisted of 1 4-pack (Van Boening), 3 3-packs (2 by Shaw and 1 by Van Boening), 11 2-packs, and 61 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 96 break-and-run games included just two 9-balls on the break (0.5% of the 422 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on the break when the breaker scratched, so it was spotted. With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.
The stream was bad, but did you add Rodney Morris 3 pack first match on the stream table ? It might change your stats.

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10-23-2016, 11:51 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by BeiberLvr View Post
I compared these stats ...
Thanks for the comparisons. What you call "Legal Breaks," however, is really the successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul). Legal breaks in total were 80% this year.

Here are some comparisons for the US Open 9-Ball streamed matches I watched for this year versus last year.

Breaks on which at least one ball was pocketed (includes all wet breaks even if illegal or fouled)
  • 2016 -- 73% (306 of 422)
  • 2015 -- 68% (388 of 572)

Illegal breaks (whether wet, dry, or fouled)
  • 2016 -- 20% (86 of 422)
  • 2015 -- 4% (23 of 572)

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
  • 2016 -- 57% (240 of 422)
  • 2015 -- 62% (353 of 572)

Breaker won game -- on all breaks:
  • 2016 -- 54% (227 of 422)
  • 2015 -- 53% (302 of 572)

Breaker won game -- on legal breaks:
  • 2016 -- 57% (191 of 336)
  • 2015 -- 54% (294 of 549)

Breaker won game -- on illegal breaks:
  • 2016 -- 42% (36 of 86)
  • 2015 -- 35% (8 of 23)

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
  • 2016 -- 23% (96 of 422)
  • 2015 -- 23% (131 of 572)

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks:
  • 2016 -- 40% (96 of 240)
  • 2015 -- 37% (131 of 353)

Average number of balls made on the break:
  • 2016 -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks
  • 2015 -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks

Games ending in one inning:
  • 2016 -- 49% (205 of 422)
  • 2015 -- 45% (258 of 572)

Run-outs from first shot after break:
  • 2016 -- 40% (170 of 422)
  • 2015 -- 36% (204 of 572)

Games won by player who made the first ball after the break:
  • 2016 -- 64% (269 of 420)
  • 2015 -- 59% (338 of 570)

Average minutes per game (includes time for racking and timeouts):
  • 2016 -- 6.0
  • 2015 -- 6.1
  
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10-23-2016, 12:00 PM

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Originally Posted by BeiberLvr View Post
AtLarge

If it's not too much trouble, could you provide the basic stats for just the matches below? All the players are top 100 in Fargo, so I'm curious to see if their numbers are higher.

Also, do you know if the numbers changed as the week went on and players learned the break better?
I imagine you mean for that group of matches in aggregate (as opposed to individually)?

And, yes, the numbers usually do tend to improve a bit as the week goes on, weaker players are eliminated, and the players have more experience with the streamed table. Because of the streaming problems this year, my stats started with the 15th match, so that tendency might be a bit diluted. Also, almost all of the streamed matches involved strong players.

Give me some time; can't do this right now.
  
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Talking 10-23-2016, 12:11 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Here are some aggregate break statistics from 24 of the 39 9-Ball matches streamed this past week on a pay-per-view basis by Accu-Stats from the 2016 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship in Norfolk, VA.
Thanks, AtLarge
Breaker won game on all breaks showing on 54% which is average of all breakers seem to show that break does not make difference. Do you have breaker won game stats for individual players? I think top breakers like Jayson and Shane would show much high break won % compared to the poor breakers.
You do not keep stats on whether open table / shot on lowest number?

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10-23-2016, 12:11 PM

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Originally Posted by JoseV View Post
The stream was bad, but did you add Rodney Morris 3 pack first match on the stream table ? It might change your stats.

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My stats started with the 15th match, so that match was not included. I also saw a couple of 2-packs in the early matches. But I doubt that the overall frequency of B&R's in those early matches was better than it was in the 24 matches included in the stats.
  
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10-23-2016, 12:33 PM

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Originally Posted by spartan View Post
Thanks, AtLarge
Breaker won game on all breaks showing on 54% which is average of all breakers seem to show that break does not make difference.
This point has come up quite a bit over the years. What I usually say is the following.

The percentage of games won by the breaker in pro events is generally in the range of 45% - 65%. It can get much higher than that for the top players near the end of an event when they are dialed in on the break and running out a lot. It can also be influenced by matches involving a strong player and a weak player. A very lopsided match in a winner-breaks format obviously leads to a very high "breaker-won-game" percentage.

Racking templates can also affect this number. If, for example in 9-Ball, the wing ball goes in on the break regularly, the stay-at-table percentage after the break is so high that the breaker has many more opportunities for a B&R game, and that raises the overall winning percentage for the breaker.

Despite the fact that the stats sometimes seem to indicate that it is no great advantage to be breaking, I doubt that many top players would want to give the break to an opponent coming down the stretch in a big event.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spartan View Post
Do you have breaker won game stats for individual players? I think top breakers like Jayson and Shane would show much high break won % compared to the poor breakers.
Yes, I can do the stats for the individual players in the streamed matches I watched. Most of the players are not on the stream much, though. For this event, however, my stats include SVB 4 times, Chang 5 times, Shaw 5 times, and Alcaide 4 times. So I'll do some stats on them later.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spartan View Post
You do not keep stats on whether open table / shot on lowest number? ...
If I understand your question, yes I do, sort of. I know whether they pushed, played safe, or shot after the break. But another player might have handled that particular situation differently, so it has a bit of a subjective element to it.
  
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