Here are some aggregate break statistics from 24 of the 39 9-Ball matches streamed this past week on a pay-per-view basis by Accu-Stats from the 2016 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship in Norfolk, VA.
Because the streaming was unstable until Tuesday afternoon, these stats exclude the first 14 streamed matches (Sunday, Monday, and the first two matches Tuesday). They also exclude one match I had to miss on Thursday.
Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
The 24 matches (422 games) tracked were as follows. The figures in parentheses for some of the matches are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.
Tues., Oct. 18, 2016
Wed., Oct. 19
Thurs., Oct. 20
Fri., Oct. 21
Sat., Oct. 22
Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not break illegally or foul) 57% of the time (240 of 422), won 54% of the games (227 of 422), and broke and ran 23% of the games (96 of 422). The break was illegal 20% of the time (86 of 422).
Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 422 breaks.
Break-and-run games -- The 96 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 422 games, 42% of the 227 games won by the breaker, and 40% of the 240 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).
The 96 break-and-run games consisted of 1 4-pack (Van Boening), 3 3-packs (2 by Shaw and 1 by Van Boening), 11 2-packs, and 61 singles.
9-balls on the break -- The 96 break-and-run games included just two 9-balls on the break (0.5% of the 422 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on the break when the breaker scratched, so it was spotted. With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.
Because the streaming was unstable until Tuesday afternoon, these stats exclude the first 14 streamed matches (Sunday, Monday, and the first two matches Tuesday). They also exclude one match I had to miss on Thursday.
Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot Paragon table with pro-cut pockets;
- blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Accu-Rack racking template;
- Aramith Tournament balls with the measles cue ball;
- winner breaks from the box -- 9" to each side of the long string;
- breaker racks for himself with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball at the back of the rack;
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 balls pass the head string or are pocketed;
- foul on all balls;
- jump cues allowed;
- for most matches, a 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and
- all slop counts.
The 24 matches (422 games) tracked were as follows. The figures in parentheses for some of the matches are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.
Tues., Oct. 18, 2016
Jorge Rodriguez (.857) defeated Frankie Hernandez (.822) 11-9, Jayson Shaw (.905) d. Warren Kiamco (.877) 11-9,
Alex Pagulayan d. Han Haoxiang 11-8, and Jung-Lin Chang (.868) d. Shane Van Boening (.762) 11-4.
Wed., Oct. 19
Ping-Chung Ko d. Stevie Moore 11-1, Kenichi Uchigaki (.888) d. Skyler Woodward (.813) 11-6,
Niels Feijen (.933) d. Konrad Juszczyszyn (.679) 11-2, Alex Pagulayan d. Mark Gray 11-5,
Abdullah Alshammare (.902) d. Kai-Lun Hsu (.856) 11-8, and David Alcaide d. Justin Bergman 11-9.
[Note: the stats exclude 1 game from the Alcaide/Bergman match because of stream freezing.]
Thurs., Oct. 20
Mike Dechaine d. Darren Appleton 11-2, Warren Kiamco (.925) d. Radoslaw Babica (.944) 11-6,
J-L Chang d. Brandon Shuff 11-6, D. Alcaide (.889) d. A. Alshammari (.627) 11-3, and J. Shaw (.933) d. Pin-Yi Ko (.899) 11-10.
[Note: I missed the first 3 games of the Kiamco/Babica match, so the stats exclude those games.]
Fri., Oct. 21
A. Pagulayan d. P-C Ko 11-5, Dennis Orcollo (.920) d. P-Y Ko (.876) 11-9.
J-L Chang (.925) d. Jeremy Jones (.829) 11-9, J. Shaw (.936) d. D. Alcaide (.889) 11-6,
S. Van Boening d. J. Jones 11-5, and D. Orcollo (.875) d. D. Alcaide (.905) 11-10.
Sat., Oct. 22
J-L Chang (.949) d. J. Shaw (.930) 11-10, S Van Boening (.907) d. J Shaw (.833) 11-9 (Semifinal), and
S. Van Boening (.941) d. J-L Chang (.910) 13-9 (FINAL)
Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not break illegally or foul) 57% of the time (240 of 422), won 54% of the games (227 of 422), and broke and ran 23% of the games (96 of 422). The break was illegal 20% of the time (86 of 422).
Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 422 breaks.
Legal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 164 (39% of the 422 games)
Breaker lost the game: 76 (18%)
Illegal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 16 (4%)
Breaker lost the game: 22 (5%)
Fouled (includes 5 breaks that were both fouled and illegal):
Breaker won the game: 6 (1%)
Breaker lost the game: 34 (8%)
Legal, dry, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 23 (5%)
Breaker lost the game: 38 (9%)
Illegal, dry, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 18 (4%)
Breaker lost the game: 25 (6%)
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 54% of all games (227 of 422),
He won 68% (164 of 240) of the games in which he broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul (successful breaks).
He won 42% (16 of 38) of the games in which he broke illegally, made at least one ball, and did not foul.
He won 15% (6 of 40) of the games in which he fouled on the break (whether wet, dry, legal, or illegal).
He won 38% (23 of 61) of the games in which he broke legally, dry, and did not foul.
He won 42% (18 of 43) of the games in which he broke illegally, dry, and did not foul.
He won 35% (63 of 182) of the games in which the break was illegal, fouled, or dry (all unsuccessful breaks).
Break-and-run games -- The 96 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 422 games, 42% of the 227 games won by the breaker, and 40% of the 240 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).
The 96 break-and-run games consisted of 1 4-pack (Van Boening), 3 3-packs (2 by Shaw and 1 by Van Boening), 11 2-packs, and 61 singles.
9-balls on the break -- The 96 break-and-run games included just two 9-balls on the break (0.5% of the 422 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on the break when the breaker scratched, so it was spotted. With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.
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