Only a ten-percent pocketing possibility for sure, and as he said, he was realistically just hoping for a good hit that would leave Earl somewhat safe (if possible) after CB/OB contact.
I'd have to say the chances of pocketing that shot are much less than 10%.
Personally, I think the serendipity involved only adds to the greatness of the shot.
"For some players, luck itself is an art." -TCOM