Break Stats -- 2023 Medalla Light Puerto Rico Open (US Pro Billiard Series) 10-Ball, November 2023

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2023 Medalla Light Puerto Rico Open 10-Ball event played November 7-10, 2023 at the Puerto Rico Convention Center in San Juan. Streaming was free on Billiard TV and on YouTube. This was the final event of this year's CSI/Predator US Pro Billiard Series. The commentators were Jim Wych, Mark White, Eric Hjorleifson, Tim De Ruyter, and George Teyechea. The referees were John Leyman (head), Parry Anderson, Ricky Bryant, and Angela Williams. Konrad Juszczyszyn won the event, defeating Roland Garcia in the final match.

110 players entered the event out of 128 available slots. The format was double-elimination down to 32 players (16 on the winners' side and 16 on the one-loss side). A random draw then matched one player from each side against each other, with single-elimination play from that point to the conclusion. In the double-elimination portion, each match was two races to 4. If the same player won both races, he won the match. If the two races to 4 were split, a shootout determined the winner. In the single-elimination portion, each match was the best two out of three races to 4, with a shootout determining the winner of the the third set (and, therefore, of the match) if that set was tied at hill/hill (3-3).

The 24 matches (277 games) I tracked were all of the men's-event matches that were streamed on the two feature tables (Table 1 and Table 2) and were available for replay on YouTube. Seven of these matches ended with a shootout. These 24 matches were 12% of the total of 200 matches played in the event (203 scheduled, 3 forfeited).

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Predator Apex 9-foot table with 4¼" corner pockets;​
- Predator Arcadia Reserve Tournament Blue cloth;​
- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​
- Predator Arena lights;​
- referee racks using a Predator Aerorack triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners;​
- a 10-ball made in any pocket on a break is spotted (not a game win);​
- jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (none occurred);​
- 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break and after a push out) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The 24 tracked matches (277 games) were as follows. Matches 1 through 15 were in the double-elimination stage, and matches 16 through 24 in the single-elimination stage. The losing player in Match 9 below was penalized 1 game for tardiness, so the stats are for 276 games.

Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023
1. Gerson Martinez Boza defeated Jose Alberto Delgado 2-4, 4-2, shootout​
2. Shane Van Boening d. Keegan Badour 4-0, 4-1​
3. Joven Bustamante d. Jesus Atencio 4-2, 4-0​
4. Alex Pagulayan d. Kashyap Choudhary 4-0, 4-1​
5. Joshua Filler d. Alan Rolon Rosado 4-1, 4-1​
6. Carlo Biado d. Moritz Neuhausen 4-1, 4-2​
7. Naoyuki Oi d. Darren Appleton 4-0, 4-2​
8. Vitaliy Patsura d. Mika Immonen 2-4, 4-3, shootout​

Wednesday, Nov. 8
9. David Alcaide d. Loy Long 4-0, 4-1​
10. Jesus Atencio d. Emil Gangflot 4-3, 3-4, shootout​
11. Van Boening d. John Morra 4-3, 2-4, shootout​
12. Aloysius Yapp d. Chang Jung-Lin 4-1, 4-2​

Thursday, Nov. 9
13. Mieszko Fortunski d. Appleton 4-3, 3-4, shootout​
14. Immonen d. Tyler Styer 4-0, 4-1​
15. Landon Hollingsworth d. Alex Kazakis 4-1, 1-4, shootout​
16. Biado d. Fortunski 4-1, 4-0 (Last 32)​
17. Mario He d. Wiktor Zielinski 2-4, 4-3, 3-3, shootout (Last 32)​
18. Chang JL d. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz 1-4, 4-1, 4-2 (Last 16)​
19. Filler d. Joao Grilo 4-1, 4-0 (Last 16)​

Friday, Nov. 10
20. Filler d. Fedor Gorst 1-4, 4-1, 4-1 (Quarterfinal)​
21. Roland Garcia d. He 4-0, 4-3 (Quarterfinal)​
22. Garcia d. Filler 4-2, 4-1 (Semifinal)​
23. Konrad Juszczyszyn d. Yapp 4-3, 4-1 (Semifinal)​
24. Juszczyszyn d. Garcia 4-2, 4-1 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 52% (87 of 167)​
Match losers -- 34% (37 of 109)​
Total -- 45% (124 of 276)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 69% (115 of 167)​
Match losers -- 38% (41 of 109)​
Total -- 57% (156 of 276)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 14% (23 of 167)​
Match losers -- 8% (9 of 109)​
Total -- 12% (32 of 276)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 26% (23 of 87)​
Match losers -- 24% (9 of 37)​
Total -- 26% (32 of 124)

Here's a breakdown of the 276 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 82 (30% of the 276 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 42 (15%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 4 (1%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 70 (25%)​
Breaker lost the game: 74 (27%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 57% (156 of 276) of all games,​
He won 66% (82 of 124) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 49% (74 of 152) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 32 break-and-run games represented 12% of all 276 games, 21% of the 156 games won by the breaker, and 26% of the 124 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 32 break-and-run games consisted of 1 2-pack (by Van Boening) and 30 singles. Only once in these 24 matches did anyone break and run more than 1 game in a row.

Four of the 24 matches contained 3 B&Rs, 5 matches had 2, 10 matches had 1, and 5 matches had no B&Rs.

10-Balls on the break -- 3 (1.1% of the 276 breaks); they were spotted.
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2023 Puerto Rico Open 10-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 24 streamed matches I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Chang JL. He won the game, but not by B&R. Three balls were made on the break just twice, once by Van Boening and once by Zielinski; both of those games were B&Rs.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.6 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.3.

• Number of innings:
26% (73 of 276) of the games ended in one inning – 32 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 41 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
26% (72 of 276) of the games ended in the second inning.​
48% (131 of 276) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The games with the most visits to the table were two that ended on the breaker's 10th visit.​

• 22% (62 of 276) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 26% (32 of 124)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 25% (2 of 8)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 19% (28 of 144)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 45% of the time (124 of 274)​
- Won the game in a later inning 24% of the time (67 of 274)​
- Lost the game 30% of the time (83 of 274)​
[Note -- total games used here are 274 rather than 276 to eliminate 2 games lost on 3 consecutive fouls before a ball was pocketed after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 1.4 games in the 50 races to 4 in the 24 matches. Nine of those 50 races ended at a score of 4-0, 20 at 4-1, 12 at 4-2, and 9 at 4-3. In addition, one match had a third set that went to 3-3, causing a shootout.

• Seven of the matches had shootouts, 6 in the double-elimination stage and 1 in the single-elimination stage. The shootouts averaged 8.7 shots at an average of about 46 seconds each (including "racking").

• The average minutes per game for the 276 games was 6.5. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made for the last race to 4 or 3-3 tie in a third set (i.e., shootouts not included), so it includes time for racking and timeouts between races.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at about 140 minutes excluding the shootout, was the He d. Zielinski match. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 8.6, was Pagulayan d. Choudhary.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 42 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.6, was Filler d. Grilo 4-1, 4-0. [This excludes a short match where one game was not played because a player was late to the match.]

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 34.5 games, other fouls 1 for every 2.4 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.4 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 58% of all games and 65% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
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appreciated, as always.

so one would be better off not breaking? or do the safe break, depending on the opponents moving game
 
appreciated, as always.

so one would be better off not breaking? or do the safe break, depending on the opponents moving game
Despite the low rates of successful breaks and B&Rs (now pretty standard in this series of events), in this event the rate at which the breaker won the game was pretty good -- 57%. If the break was successful the breaker won about two-thirds of the time and if the break was unsuccessful he still won about half the time. So I guess they shouldn't give up the break.

I wonder whether Pagulayan stuck with that soft cut break he used in Match #4 above. He broke successfully on just 2 of his 7 breaks but won all 7 games. His opponent's play, however, was rather awful. The only other player I saw that tried something like that was Mario He, perhaps for just a few breaks, but I didn't mark down which games those were so I don't know how well it worked for him.
 
Despite the low rates of successful breaks and B&Rs (now pretty standard in this series of events), in this event the rate at which the breaker won the game was pretty good -- 57%. If the break was successful the breaker won about two-thirds of the time and if the break was unsuccessful he still won about half the time. So I guess they shouldn't give up the break.

I wonder whether Pagulayan stuck with that soft cut break he used in Match #4 above. He broke successfully on just 2 of his 7 breaks but won all 7 games. His opponent's play, however, was rather awful. The only other player I saw that tried something like that was Mario He, perhaps for just a few breaks, but I didn't mark down which games those were so I don't know how well it worked for him.

right. i was looking at successful breaks only. yes, mario won that match, i watched it and it was annoying to watch. filler did the same thing in world 8-ball last year, safe broke the entire match trying to instead outmove jayson. filler lost.
 
filler did the same thing in world 8-ball last year, safe broke the entire match trying to instead outmove jayson. filler lost.
I'm not surprised that strategy didn't work. I believe AtLarge did the stats for an 8 ball tournament recently and, if I recall correctly, the first player to take an offensive shot got out 90% of the time.
 
I'm not surprised that strategy didn't work. I believe AtLarge did the stats for an 8 ball tournament recently and, if I recall correctly, the first player to take an offensive shot got out 90% of the time.
You're probably remembering the World 8-Ball Championship from just 3 weeks ago. I didn't calculate the stat you mentioned, but it wouldn't have been quite that high. Here are a few stats that get at that same notion, comparing 8-Ball results (from that event 3 weeks ago) and 10-Ball results (from the event this week). The first number is for 8-Ball, the second for 10-Ball.

Runouts by the breaker after successful breaks -- 76%, 26%​
Runouts by the non-breaker after fouled or dry breaks -- 65%, 20%​
Runouts by the player who made the first ball after the break (as a percentage of all games) -- 73%, 45%​
Games won by the player who made the first ball after the break -- 78%, 70%​
 
You're probably remembering the World 8-Ball Championship from just 3 weeks ago. I didn't calculate the stat you mentioned, but it wouldn't have been quite that high. Here are a few stats that get at that same notion, comparing 8-Ball results (from that event 3 weeks ago) and 10-Ball results (from the event this week). The first number is for 8-Ball, the second for 10-Ball.

Runouts by the breaker after successful breaks -- 76%, 26%​
Runouts by the non-breaker after fouled or dry breaks -- 65%, 20%​
Runouts by the player who made the first ball after the break (as a percentage of all games) -- 73%, 45%​
Games won by the player who made the first ball after the break -- 78%, 70%​
Thanks, I was too lazy to look. It's like they say, the quickest way to get the right answer on the internet is to post the wrong answer. Those are astounding runout percentages for 8 ball. I seem to recall a pretty low percentage of successful breaks in that tournament.
 
Miscellany from the data for the 2023 Puerto Rico Open 10-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 24 streamed matches I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Chang JL. He won the game, but not by B&R. Three balls were made on the break just twice, once by Van Boening and once by Zielinski; both of those games were B&Rs.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.6 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.3.

• Number of innings:
26% (73 of 276) of the games ended in one inning – 32 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 41 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
26% (72 of 276) of the games ended in the second inning.​
48% (131 of 276) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The games with the most visits to the table were two that ended on the breaker's 10th visit.​

• 22% (62 of 276) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 26% (32 of 124)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 25% (2 of 8)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 19% (28 of 144)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 45% of the time (124 of 274)​
- Won the game in a later inning 24% of the time (67 of 274)​
- Lost the game 30% of the time (83 of 274)​
[Note -- total games used here are 274 rather than 276 to eliminate 2 games lost on 3 consecutive fouls before a ball was pocketed after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 1.4 games in the 50 races to 4 in the 24 matches. Nine of those 50 races ended at a score of 4-0, 20 at 4-1, 12 at 4-2, and 9 at 4-3. In addition, one match had a third set that went to 3-3, causing a shootout.

• Seven of the matches had shootouts, 6 in the double-elimination stage and 1 in the single-elimination stage. The shootouts averaged 8.7 shots at an average of about 46 seconds each (including "racking").

• The average minutes per game for the 276 games was 6.5. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made for the last race to 4 or 3-3 tie in a third set (i.e., shootouts not included), so it includes time for racking and timeouts between races.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at about 140 minutes excluding the shootout, was the He d. Zielinski match. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 8.6, was Pagulayan d. Choudhary.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 42 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.6, was Filler d. Grilo 4-1, 4-0. [This excludes a short match where one game was not played because a player was late to the match.]

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 34.5 games, other fouls 1 for every 2.4 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.4 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 58% of all games and 65% of games that were not B&Rs.
Dude, your data collection is awesome. Really fascinating reading.
 
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