Cue Raffles

7stud said:
Raffles are scams. In your raffle, the expected value of winning was 1/100 x $400 = $4. Anyone who bought a ticket for $10, should expect to lose $6 for every similar raffle they played. Another way to look at it is: if you played the raffle 100 times, on average you would win 1 time. 100 tickets would cost you $10 x 100 = $1,000 and you would win a $400 cue, so you would lose $600. Lesson: if you like the cue, buy it yourself for $400 instead of playing the raffle--it's cheaper. Also, you have no idea whether the raffle is being run fairly, i.e. the raffle administrator could just say, so and so won the cue, which means your actual probability of winning the raffle was 0.



Let's see: that would make the probability of winning 1/10, and the prize is $400, so the expected value of playing that raffle is: 1/10 x $400 = $40. With tickets costing $10, on average I would make $30 every time I played that raffle. Or, if I played that raffle 10 times, on average I would win it 1 time. To play the raffle 10 times would cost me 10 x $10 = $100, and I would win a $400 cue, so I would come out $300 ahead. Answer: very favorably.
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Well what if like me you buy one ticket and win? So I won a $600 cue for a $20.00 ticket and sold the cue $400 at the same tournament. Raffles aren't scams any more than break-pot tickets or scratch-off lotto tickets.
 
At the sbe retailers will usually raffle a $400 cue to raise $400. 40 tickets at $10 each. i won a predator cue once. it listed at around $800. was selling in the $600 range. i sold it for $500.
Some raffles are scams the winner is predetermined.
 
The fact that 100 people would invest in a raffle for a cue of "unknown" value is not surprising to me- it just reinforces the mentality of the general pool playing public that you find in a pool room, or online. The room owner was the smartest guy in the room- he knew his audience to perfection!
 
It's pretty simple really. If you don't like the odds/numbers don't play the game. It's no different than handicapping a match. And let's face it, I don't know a single person who wouldn't jump at the chance to sell something they bought for $400 for $1000. The way it's sold makes no difference.

Having said all that, this discussion reminds me of a joke...


A young man named Chuck bought a horse from a farmer for $250. The farmer agreed to deliver the horse the next day. The next day, the farmer drove up to Chucks house and said, ‘Sorry son, but I have some bad news, the horse died.’

Chuck replied, ‘Well, then just give me my money back.’

The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.’

Chuck said, ‘Ok, then, just bring me the dead horse.’

The farmer asked, ‘What ya gonna do with him?

Chuck said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’

The farmer said, ‘You can’t raffle off a dead horse!’

Chuck said, ‘Sure I can, Watch me. I just won’t tell any body he’s dead.’

A month Later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, ‘What happened with that dead horse?’

Chuck said, ‘I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at five dollars a piece and made a profit of $2495.’

The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’

Chuck said, ‘Just the guy who won. So I gave him his five dollars back.
 
Ever run across Facebook pool cue raffle groups? There's quite a few of them. They operate somewhat under the radar with money changing hands thru Venmo/etc. and you must be invited/approved to join and see what's going on. The group I'd joined streams a 'random', virtual roulette wheel to pick the winner. The first item I was very interested in just happened to be won by one of the group administrators. With about 40 entries in the raffle it was an odd coincidence. I lost interest in the group after that. And, as you'd expect, they collect about twice as much in entries as the raffle item is worth.
 
slach said:
Ever run across Facebook pool cue raffle groups? There's quite a few of them. They operate somewhat under the radar with money changing hands thru Venmo/etc. and you must be invited/approved to join and see what's going on. The group I'd joined streams a 'random', virtual roulette wheel to pick the winner. The first item I was very interested in just happened to be won by one of the group administrators. With about 40 entries in the raffle it was an odd coincidence. I lost interest in the group after that. And, as you'd expect, they collect about twice as much in entries as the raffle item is worth.
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I used to see those all the time. But I never got involved because I always figured they'd be too easy to manipulate. I'm not saying they weren't run fairly. I just didn't like that action.

I will say it was pretty "interesting" to see the same cues get raffled off multiple times, though. I have an idea as to how/why that was happening but I'm not sure as to how accurate it is.

Cue Value: $5,000
Tickets Sold Value: $6,000
Offer $5,000 cash to winner in lieu of cue.
Repeat.
 
Every one i entered was run the same way: set number of entries, Powerball based winning #. No subterfuge or dicking around. Cue was shown and described so anyone with half a brain could enter or bail at will. I've never bought tickets at a tournament style raffle. All were on-line. I entered about six and won three. Getcha sum!!
 
slach said:
Ever run across Facebook pool cue raffle groups? There's quite a few of them. They operate somewhat under the radar with money changing hands thru Venmo/etc. and you must be invited/approved to join and see what's going on. The group I'd joined streams a 'random', virtual roulette wheel to pick the winner. The first item I was very interested in just happened to be won by one of the group administrators. With about 40 entries in the raffle it was an odd coincidence. I lost interest in the group after that. And, as you'd expect, they collect about twice as much in entries as the raffle item is worth.
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People used to do those here on AZB, but there is some regulatory issue about raffles and gambling that put off the Admins enuf to have them banned from the site. That likely explains the Facebook ones being private groups...

I played in a few of them here before they were banned. As others have said, I didn't have the money to purchase a cue as nice as the ones being raffled, but I did have $10 for a one-in-40 chance at it. (Or whatever the $$$ and number of entries were) Them being run thru here gave me a bit more of a feeling of security in the process and its legitimacy, not sure I'd jump in on a Facebook raffle.
 
justadub said:
People used to do those here on AZB, but there is some regulatory issue about raffles and gambling that put off the Admins enuf to have them banned from the site. That likely explains the Facebook ones being private groups...

I played in a few of them here before they were banned. As others have said, I didn't have the money to purchase a cue as nice as the ones being raffled, but I did have $10 for a one-in-40 chance at it. (Or whatever the $$$ and number of entries were) Them being run thru here gave me a bit more of a feeling of security in the process and its legitimacy, not sure I'd jump in on a Facebook raffle.
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Best one on FB is run by Alex Fenilli. Nice cues, on the square.
 
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