Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXXVIII 9-Ball Open, January 2024

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Turning Stone Classic XXXVIII 9-Ball Open played January 4-7, 2024 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York. Free live streaming was provided by AZBtv on the Facebook page of UpState AL and on YouTube.

This was a 128-player double-elimination event. Fedor Gorst won the tournament, defeating Jayson Shaw in the final match.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches in this event included:

- Diamond 9-foot table with 4½" corner pockets;​

- Tournament Blue Simonis 860 cloth, new;​

- Aramith Tournament balls with a measles cue ball;​

- Diamond black polycarbonate triangle rack;​

- winner breaks from a central box (2 diamonds wide);​

- loser racks, with the 1-ball on the foot spot;​

- cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting;​

- no jump cues allowed;​

- no shot clock;​

- all slop counts; and​

- lag for opening break.​

The stats are for 21 of the 23 matches (280 games) shown on the main streaming table. I did not watch 2 of those 23 matches -- the losers'-side matches that were streamed at 10 am on Friday and Saturday. These 21 tracked matches represented 8.3% of the event's total of 252 matches played (2 matches were forfeited), and are listed here in the order in which they were played.

Thursday, January 4, 2024

1. Kristina Tkach defeated Dave Mills 9-2​

2. Waleed Hashem d. Caroline Pao 9-1​

3. Garrett Vaughan d. Pat Fleming 9-3​

4. Erik Hjorleifson d. Jamie Garrett 9-3​

Friday, Jan. 5

5. Jayson Shaw d. Thorsten Hohmann 9-3​

6. Donny Mills d. Trystan Speedwell 9-4​

7. Matt Krah d. Dave Shlemperis 9-3​

8. Tom Cayer d. Jordan Turner 9-1​

9. Ron Casanzio d. Dan Hewitt 9-8​

10. Hunter Lombardo d. Alvin Thomas 9-8​

Saturday, Jan. 6

11. Vitaliy Patsura d. Barry Hetherington 9-0​

12. Shaw d. Johnny Archer 9-2​

13. Mills d. Tkach 9-5​

14. Casanzio d. Hohmann 9-8​

15. Hjorleifson d. Casper Matikainen 9-7​

16. Jonathan Smith d. Jimmy Rivera 9-5​

Sunday, Jan. 7

17. Shaw d. Rodney Morris 9-5​

18. Hjorleifson d. Hewitt 9-6​

19. Shaw d. Fedor Gorst 9-6 (Hotseat match)​

20. Gorst d. Hjorleifson 9-2 (Semifinal)​

21. Gorst d. Shaw 13-5 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 68% (122 of 180)​

Match losers -- 59% (59 of 100)​

Total -- 65% (181 of 280)​

Breaker won the game:​

Match winners -- 74% (133 of 180)​

Match losers -- 40% (40 of 100)​

Total -- 62% (173 of 280)​

Break-and-run games on all breaks:​

Match winners -- 27% (48 of 180)​

Match losers -- 15% (15 of 100)​

Total -- 23% (63 of 280)​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 39% (48 of 122)​

Match losers -- 25% (15 of 59)​

Total -- 35% (63 of 181)​

Here's a breakdown of the 280 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​

Breaker won the game: 121 (43% of the 280 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 60 (21%)​

​

Breaker fouled on the break:​

Breaker won the game: 6 (2%)​

Breaker lost the game: 10 (4%)​

​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​

Breaker won the game: 46 (16%)​

Breaker lost the game: 37 (13%)​

​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 62% (173 of 280) of all games,​

He won 67% (121 of 181) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​

He won 53% (52 of 99) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 63 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 280 games, 36% of the 173 games won by the breaker, and 35% of the 181 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 63 break-and-run games (including 9-balls on the break) consisted of one 4-pack (by Gorst in the Final), four 3-packs (2 by Shaw in the Hotseat match, 1 by Hjorleifson, and 1 by Cayer), nine 2-packs, and 29 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 63 break-and-run games included 6 9-balls on the break (2.1% of all 280 breaks).

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXXVIII 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 21 tracked matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 3, done 10 times. Four of those 10 games were won by the breaker (2 by B&R) and 6 were won by the non-breaker.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.9 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4, and the distribution was 65% 1 ball, 29% 2 balls, and 6% 3 balls.

• Number of innings:

37% (104 of 280) of the games ended in one inning – 68 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 60 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​

24% (66 of 280) of the games ended in the second inning.​

39% (110 of 280) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The two games with the most visits to the table ended on the breaker's 9th visit.​

• 29% (81 of 280) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 35% (63 of 181)​

- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 50% (8 of 16)​

- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 12% (10 of 83)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 48% of the time (132 of 274)
- Won the game in a later inning 22% of the time (59 of 274)
- Lost the game 30% of the time (83 of 274)
[Note -- total games used here are 274 rather than 280 to eliminate the 6 games in which no ball was made after the break.]
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• Excluding the Finals race to 13, the loser won an average of 4.1 games in the 20 races to 9. Three matches went to hill/hill; the most lopsided was one at 9-0.

• The average elapsed time for the 20 races to 9 was 82 minutes, or 6.3 minutes per game. Including the Finals, the average minutes per game for all 21 matches was also 6.3. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made, so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The race to 9 that was both longest in elapsed time, at 144 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.5, was Casanzio d. Hewitt 9-8.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at about 48 minutes, was Cayer d. Turner 9-1. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.5, was Shaw d. Morris 9-5.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 17.5 games, other fouls 1 for every 2.9 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.3 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 47% of all games and in 61% of games that were not B&Rs.

 

[AtLarge]

28 different players accounted for the 42 player appearances in the 21 matches I tracked. Shaw was in 5 of these 21streamed matches and Gorst in 3 (all on the last day for Gorst). Here is how Gorst and Shaw, combined, did in their 8 appearances compared with the 34 appearances of the other 26 players in these matches.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

Gorst & Shaw -- 81% (54 of 67)​

Others -- 60% (127 of 213)​

Total -- 65% (181 of 280)​

Breaker won the game:

Gorst & Shaw -- 70% (47 of 67)​

Others -- 59% (126 of 213)​

Total -- 62% (173 of 280)​

Break-and-run games on all breaks:

Gorst & Shaw -- 40% (27 of 67)​

Others -- 17% (36 of 213)​

Total -- 23% (63 of 280)​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

Gorst & Shaw -- 50% (27 of 54)​

Others -- 28% (36 of 127)​

Total -- 35% (63 of 181)​

 

[stewie]

So, Turning Stone has different break rules than Matchroom events. How would they compare? Keeping in mind, maybe, different player levels(?)

 

[AtLarge]

So, Turning Stone has different break rules than Matchroom events. How would they compare? Keeping in mind, maybe, different player levels(?)

Dr. Dave has tabulated results from many of my stats threads. So if you are looking for a comparison of a few breaking statistics -- Matchroom events vs. Turning Stone events -- you can see the 9-Ball table here (although he has not yet added this latest Turning Stone event): https://billiards.colostate.edu/faq/break/stats/#9-ball

But, as you mentioned, the average skill level of the players in the Matchroom matches I tracked would be higher than in the Turning Stone matches I tracked.

 

[stewie]

Well, you two are more crazy, than I expected. In a good way thank you!

The table has what I meant. Actually does not really show turning stone to be better or worse then match room events, at all. Interesting.

 

[Monti]

Thanks for these. Interesting to see that if you put 3 balls down from the break then you are more likely to lose! (Obviously small sample)

 

[AtLarge]

Thanks for these. Interesting to see that if you put 3 balls down from the break then you are more likely to lose! (Obviously small sample)

Well, I don't want you to lose any money betting that direction. For all of the 9-Ball matches that I tracked in 2023, when the breaker made 3 or more balls on the break he won the game 71% of the time.

 

[skogstokig]

Well, you two are more crazy, than I expected. In a good way thank you!

The table has what I meant. Actually does not really show turning stone to be better or worse then match room events, at all. Interesting.

the difference in pocket size may make up for the fargo gap a little, 4" vs 4.5". plus the MR events have had many low fargo players too, signing up has been first come first served. they are going to change that to a qualifying system

 

[tomatoshooter]

Thanks for these. Interesting to see that if you put 3 balls down from the break then you are more likely to lose! (Obviously small sample)

I noticed that, too. And when the breaker broke dry, he still won a majority of the time. I'm guessing becuasr the better player breaks more often and therefore has more dry breaks (68-41) so the weaker player can't get out as reliably. The statistics are a lot to unpack but I think winning after a dry break is about the better player still winning and overcoming the dry break, not that the break is unimportant.

 

[Willowbrook Wolfy]

Thanks for taking the time and providing all that data Atlarge.

Looking at it everyone seems to play so slow when I compare my times with theirs. My longest race to 30 I have recorded took 3hrs 22 minutes. Maybe it was 4hrs 22min. Big difference but nothing compared to a race to 9 going over 2hours. That was 52 games with 10 min breaks every 5/10 racks. 8, 9, and 10. We have a Friday night fight night that streams and I’ve seen some of them go 5-6hrs to 20. Its crazy. I’d be so bored. I always aim for under 3hrs on a race to 30.

My race with the ghost the other day took 13 minutes and that was with interruptions. Never usually takes me over 20min to play the ghost race to 7. Does someone playing 15-20 racks an hours gives them twice as much practice as someone playing 7-10 an hour. Idk but it’s definitely twice as many balls pocketed.

 

[skogstokig]

Thanks for taking the time and providing all that data Atlarge.

Looking at it everyone seems to play so slow when I compare my times with theirs. My longest race to 30 I have recorded took 3hrs 22 minutes. Maybe it was 4hrs 22min. Big difference but nothing compared to a race to 9 going over 2hours. That was 52 games with 10 min breaks every 5/10 racks. 8, 9, and 10. We have a Friday night fight night that streams and I’ve seen some of them go 5-6hrs to 20. Its crazy. I’d be so bored. I always aim for under 3hrs on a race to 30.

My race with the ghost the other day took 13 minutes and that was with interruptions. Never usually takes me over 20min to play the ghost race to 7. Does someone playing 15-20 racks an hours gives them twice as much practice as someone playing 7-10 an hour. Idk but it’s definitely twice as many balls pocketed.

there's more on the line for them vs you playing the ghost. i'm notoriously a fast play activist, but not without understanding of players shooting for their livelihood. god bless the shot clock..

 

[skogstokig]

also should be noted that fedor gorst has sped up his game. i don't think he'll be in trouble with the shot clock as much going forward.

 

[Willowbrook Wolfy]

there's more on the line for them vs you playing the ghost. i'm notoriously a fast play activist, but not without understanding of players shooting for their livelihood. god bless the shot clock..

Well I get what you’re saying. If it was true I would agree. I play for $1000 on a race to 30. And normally finish at right around 3hrs or 3-1/2. That is high stakes for me. I was by no means knocking their play. Just going over the data and comparing my speed of play with the avg. of top players. Then stating that I seem to have a higher pace of play when compared.

Hey. Maybe I should slow down a bit.

 

[AtLarge]

the difference in pocket size may make up for the fargo gap a little, 4" vs 4.5". plus the MR events have had many low fargo players too, signing up has been first come first served. they are going to change that to a qualifying system

While you're correct about many low FargoRate players in some past Matchroom events, that's not so true as to the matches I track for the stats threads. The streamed matches are usually with good players, and I now tend to start my stats matches with the single-elimination stage or the round to qualify for the single-elimination stage.

 

[tomatoshooter]

While you're correct about many low FargoRate players in some past Matchroom events, that's not so true as to the matches I track for the stats threads. The streamed matches are usually with good players, and I now tend to start my stats matches with the single-elimination stage or the round to qualify for the single-elimination stage.

I'm kind of interested in how the early rounds go. I want to see how good the worst players in the tournament are, I already know Gorst can beat me. All kidding aside, because these stats come from the later rounds, better players having better days may be slightly overrepresented.