Recent content by Rocket354

Depends on your definition of A and B. I view them as P(Shane wins given he breaks) and P(Shane wins given he does not break) since those are the only two options in most any race. In winner- or loser-break format the probability of winning a given game is dependent on the previous games. In...

Er...independent trials has a mathematical definition. It is P(AUB) = P(A)*P(B). Any real world competition of course involves a psychological element, but when alternating breaks as in this example, the probability of the person, say Shane, who won the lag winning the third game is the same...

What are the most common problems you see with Cuetec?

Your initial answer referred to packages, which is only relevant in winner break formats. Otherwise, the other person gets to the table every other game to restart their own (presumably independent) trial. Bob's example was helpful. It works because each run is its own trial as each shot is not...

There's conscious bias and unconscious bias. The second is much harder to avoid and affects us all--including, of course, myseelf. I could absolutely be misinterpreting how you present your arguments and otherwise ignore some raised points, but everything you do seems to align more with what...

Perhaps. I've heard heart attack and stroke. That's one super-fast autopsy...

Back to convoluted non-answers. If Tony's 777 and Sky's 812 are inaccurate for 1p because they are about even, and also inaccurate for 9b because Sky has a distinct advantage, then in what sense does Fargo "work"? It appears to be a (very) good assessment of relative average skill, but fails...

This is what Fedor posted: The bolded part stood out to me a bit. Is there an implication there? Also, pretty quick cause of death determination, but perhaps any discussion that way should wait. RIP, Chang Jung-Lin. You were always a pleasure to watch and are gone way too soon.

...So then why aren't there subscores? It sounds like an opportunity for improvement in line with the exact goal of FargoRate. A relative new person to the pool scene might look at Tony's 777 and Skyler's 812 and conclude Skyler has an advantage in a 1p matchup. Your answer also contradicts what...

So, this is only an element in winner-breaks formats? Also, can you address the second part of my question, that is the race calculators having to change based on table size, and now apparently, break format?

What you are suggesting is that for a binominal distribution (n=200, p=.55) you actually get two different standard deviations even though the actual standard deviation of a binominal distribution is sqrt[np(1-p)]. Therefore, the only conclusion is that p != .55 in one of those cases. The only...

Maybe clarifying your belief on the utility of one all-encompassing rating across all pool disciplines would be helpful. Let's take two players. Say, Tony C with a 777 Fargo, and Skyler W with an 812. Do you believe the relative win frequency between these two folks would be exactly the same...

Thanks for the correction. I was watching a lot of matches and my memory mixed up who lost to whom (Max, while performing well overall in both 9b and 10b, did have a couple losses to significantly lower-ranked players). Point stands. There are subcategories in pool skill and thinking FargoRate...

perhaps nitpicking here, but Mike Page rarely proves anything, but often cherry picks various specific locations with whatever statistical alignment he is looking for. I am a big believer in Fargo above any eye test and as a general representation of a player's skill. But to think some players...

That isn't a case where one "has" to use it. That is also a case where it can become a crutch that affects one's sense of aim and reduces the development of one's abilities. People should learn how to make shots without sidespin so they can develop a much better sense of cue ball control and the...