Do you ever get the feeling that the Fargo Rate of a player just does not seem right?

V

vintagecollectibles831

Well-known member
Curious, do you ever get the feeling that the Fargo Rate of a player just does not seem right?

Makes me wonder, lets say you have 2 650 Fargo rate players, who only ever competed locally, in the cities where they lived.

Then, they eventually meet up, and play against each other in some big regional event, but their speeds seem to be very different.

The number 650 was just an example. It could even be like two 500 Fargo players, for example.

The same question goes for Ladies who mostly only compete against other ladies. Would a 650 Female player consistently run fairly even with a 650 Male player? I know, this argument has probably come up a lot, and I understand that Siming Chen for example, competed against a very strong Pro from FL, and beat him multiple sets, for the money.

Anyways, back to my original question, and the reason I ask is because I have seen some 650 Fargo players, for example, that I did not think should have a 650 rating. In those cases, they just did not look strong enough to be a 650. But, I guess they must have been, for some reason, or maybe I just seen them on a bad day.

Thanks for any thoughts.
 
A Fargo Rating isn’t an absolute prediction. If you watched two 650-rated players compete every day for a couple of weeks and one consistently outperformed the other in both execution, knowledge and match results, then there may be a discrepancy. But on any given day, either player might perform well above or well below their established level. A Fargo Rating is essentially an estimate of a player’s long-term average playing strength, not a prediction of how they’ll perform in any single match.
 
Cameron Smith said:
A Fargo Rating isn’t an absolute prediction. If you watched two 650-rated players compete every day for a couple of weeks and one consistently outperformed the other in both execution, knowledge and match results, then there may be a discrepancy. But on any given day, either player might perform well above or well below their established level. A Fargo Rating is essentially an estimate of a player’s long-term average playing strength, not a prediction of how they’ll perform in any single match.
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I generally agree with this, but of course Fargo only measures match results. It’s blind to how you win or lose a game.

One easy example is the OP’s question about women players. You can look at many 700 level women players and rightly say their breaks aren’t on par with their male counterparts with the same rating. But if so they must do something else better than their male counterparts -maybe they play better patterns, or kick better or whatever. At least in my area there aren’t enough women’s events so the women players play against men all the time and their Fargo will reflect that.

This can be a problem when someone says that they saw a 650 who doesn’t play as well. Maybe that 650 doesn’t run out as much as other 650s. But maybe he plays smart safeties. Or maybe he plays bad patterns and just relies on exceptional shotmaking to bail himself out. Or maybe the 650 is on fire and playing like a 750 - then they probably have off days when they play well below 650.
 
The data does show that Fargo holds up well when people from one area (a state) travel to another area to play. There is less jurisdictional bias than we think. Players from all over the country do as expected (no statistically significant difference) when they all convene in Las Vegas for big tournaments. (The exception was players from Puerto Rico that did a little worse than expected).

The data also shows that women's Fargo ratings hold up quite well when playing against men.

The guys at Fargo have heard all of this before, have studied it and made videos to share the evidence.
 
CocoboloCowboy said:
Fargo is like all Handicapping Systems, not Prefect.

Person who has Fargo but only play 9 Ball on Bar Boxes, has never play One Pocket on a 9 footer, should carry Rating over at First Attempt to play One Pocket?
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One pocket and banks are special cases, as there are specialists in those games that can easily beat many players with much higher Fargos.

Although they now allow 1p games to go in to Fargo they don’t do a breakdown of 1p only matches. It would sure be interesting if they did.
 
GideonF said:
One pocket and banks are special cases, as there are specialists in those games that can easily beat many players with much higher Fargos.

Although they now allow 1p games to go in to Fargo they don’t do a breakdown of 1p only matches. It would sure be interesting if they did.
Click to expand...

There are not a lot of One Pocket and Banks tournaments though, right? Not anywhere near the number of 8 and 9 ball tournaments. Same can be said for Leagues.
 
Are there any leagues or tournaments that use FargoRate for handicapping?
In my opinion, the system will only work for 8ball.
And the top/pro rating is unnecessary as they don’t do handicapping and there are other ranking lists.
 
skor said:
Are there any leagues or tournaments that use FargoRate for handicapping?
In my opinion, the system will only work for 8ball.
And the top/pro rating is unnecessary as they don’t do handicapping and there are other ranking lists.
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BCA nine ball uses Fargo for handicapping.

And it is important for Pro players to have a Fargo (even if handicaps are not used in pro tournaments) because pro players intermix with all of us amateurs in a lot of regional tournaments and add meaningful data to the ecosystem that creates accurate ratings for everyone. Is it necessary to show us their rating on the broadcast or livestream of a pro tournament? Probably not. I think of it like chess. All chess players that compete have a rating, but ultimately at the top it is just the best players in a tournament and the ratings don't mean much.
 
DieselPete said:
BCA nine ball uses Fargo for handicapping.
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and how does it work? has a 500 player beaten a 700 player in a race to 7 for example?
I doubt that, spotting games won't help a wicker player in 9 ball
 
Nice thing about being up in years the desire to got to local Bars or Rooms to compete is gone. Figured out even if you win the hours spent v/s money won just dont justify the effort, gas, aggravation, and dealing with BS.

Arizona Rating System was like Fargo, as one guy said the BETTER I GOT, the HIGHER I WAS RATED, the Less Tournaments I could play.

Working hard, getting better, was rewarded with being removed from opportunity to compete, and got to point only OPEN TOURNAMENTS (NO Handicapped) were open to him.

FARGO or AZ RATING System all have faults.

JMHO
 
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The Fargo number is a reflection of how you have fared against players in the system. That allows a person to estimate how they might fare in a given match. The robustness is an indicator of potential accuracy of the estimate.
So if you were present only for my one victory against a 725 you might think I am under rated. And of course the one time I lost to a 350 would be the other end of that swing.
My ego doesn't like my punny number. I just remind myself that it's just an indicator of past performance. So I used to avoid learning my opponents number before a match as The Fear Factor is huge.
 
If you search for posts by Mike Page you'll find a lot of discussion and information on these very subjects... 👍
 
CocoboloCowboy said:
spent
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Well my ledger or account shows that my competition on the fields of friendly strife was profitable. However the per hour invested proofed the recreational status.
The memories are the true treasures. The money barely covered my bar tabs. 🤷‍♂️
Gotta quote Coach McHargue again. "We play to have fun. It's easier to have fun when you win."
So when I do lose I strive to be happy for my opponent. Especially if it's a much lower Fargorate player. Yeah Real Effing Happy at times. 😉
A favorite memory is the time I just couldn't find my focus and lost to a young man that was a beginner. I was in a self depreciating funk as I extended my hand to feign congratulations. The young player obviously knew my number and was so happy that he stepped inside my extended hand and HUGGED ME!!! The Hug did bring a Real Smile and helped me get over myself and be truly happy for his success.
 
vintagecollectibles831 said:
Curious, do you ever get the feeling that the Fargo Rate of a player just does not seem right?

Makes me wonder, lets say you have 2 650 Fargo rate players, who only ever competed locally, in the cities where they lived.

Then, they eventually meet up, and play against each other in some big regional event, but their speeds seem to be very different.

The number 650 was just an example. It could even be like two 500 Fargo players, for example.

The same question goes for Ladies who mostly only compete against other ladies. Would a 650 Female player consistently run fairly even with a 650 Male player? I know, this argument has probably come up a lot, and I understand that Siming Chen for example, competed against a very strong Pro from FL, and beat him multiple sets, for the money.

Anyways, back to my original question, and the reason I ask is because I have seen some 650 Fargo players, for example, that I did not think should have a 650 rating. In those cases, they just did not look strong enough to be a 650. But, I guess they must have been, for some reason, or maybe I just seen them on a bad day.

Thanks for any thoughts.
Click to expand...
Recently, I drew a guy in a one pocket tournament that was a 475, but I don't think his robustness was all that high. I beat him, but it was MUCH harder than it should be for a 475. If I was to estimate his speed, I would put him at 600-630. Even though I won, and was the last 600-ish player left in the event, my fargo was trashed.

I think Fargo is the best handicapping system by far. However, I also think it has greater inaccuracy when it comes to measuring one-pocket skill level.

kollegedave
 
You can't really use a single data point (one match) as a predictor for whether Fargo rate averages are correct. If those two players played over and over and the result was lopsided, Fargo would correct for that. But anyone can win one match.

On that day, Player one might play 100 points better than his FargoRate and Player 2 might play 100 points lower. That's like 1 750 playing 550. That doesn't mean their Fargo Rates are wrong. Just that they played outside their average that day.

-td
 
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