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I do find the scenario almost a metaphor for life in general. Most people are generally not good at risk assessment and such. IMO, it should be taught starting in middle or high school. And, they can through even incorrect assessment, accidentally walk their way into a break even scenario. If...

When I say me, I’m speaking from the contestant POV. I might have not been clear on that. If we are saying the contestant knows 100%, then I’ll have to hear explanation to see what I’m missing.

I’d call him a broken clock, but the clock is right twice a day……

From a sales/business standpoint, it makes sense for the tournament blacks to look different. They could have left the 4 purple and made the 5 pink and been pretty close to original as well as still have the TV contrast. But, it’s much easier to market something different when it looks...

I have a set of blacks showing up today. Let’s see how many times I shoot them out of order.

I’d love to find one with the wrap. Would give me an excuse to add a schon to line up.

This ain’t 1995. It’s well known that any player that good can adapt to new games quite well very quickly. Gorst has an 800+ Fargo. There’s only one player from the US and 26 in the world in that category. Anyone willing to play him yesterday will be willing to play tomorrow. He won the all...

I literally said “what the fuck” out loud. I wish this was a troll post. It would be amazing.

Lol. Hindsight. There were plenty of people who thought it was going to be closer. Can’t blame the promoter. Sometimes Mike Tyson bites a guy’s ear off when people paid $70 ppv. Shit happens. And I promise most people will waste $20 this week on something far less important. Stop being nits...

It’s all relative. It’s an extreme case, but if the overall talent level became high enough, running out a rack here and there could easily be a “banger.” Also, that’s how you become great. Being “mad” at mistakes. Winners are *never* satisfied with their performance. It comes off as...

Pretty interesting everyone wants to see pool succeed but balks at a $20 bill.

Basically, if a person takes a completely random approach they effectively killed part of the information that Monty provided them. They just exclude a door that was opened and turn the odds into a true 50/50 via bad (but less terrible than just staying) decision making.

It’s actually a fairly interesting observation if we think about it. Let’s say we have 3 contestants. A, B, C. A: always swaps B: flips a coin C: always stays They each play 100 games. And we assume the 1/3 and 2/3 stats hold up perfectly for ease of illustration. A: wins 67 games B: (see...

The contestant can never know where it is 100% of the time.

I’m going off memory here. But the insurance company did quote a few things to try avoid paying. He made a few 9’s on break and at least one combo on 9. So they claimed he didn’t run the entire rack on those. Which supposedly running the entire rack was figured in the ~7 million to 1 odds. The...

If you want to discuss different scenarios, then outline them properly. As no one wanting to win would offer the scenario of your first post unless they hate money.

Again, you’re now making up different scenarios. The only reason the proposer would show a goat and offer to swap when they want to win would be either: -odds on money. See my post above about spending 15 to make 5 on a win -some other reason such as marketing and such. You’re basically...

There’s no need to look at empirical data for straight forward things. That’s why confidence intervals exist. You can literally predict worst case scenarios to about 95% confidence. Then you make decisions based on that. If you can afford to fade the worst case scenario, then the decision to...

That’s how a casino would set it up. They would always have a payout that pays less than the 2/3 odds. So they make money when a player swaps cards. And they make a ton of money when they stick with their original. For example: If you wanted to win $5 You would have to bet $15 We play 3x...

If this is being setup as a prop bet and I’m trying to win….and I give you the choice after showing you the door or card. If doing it one time, I’d have to have better odds on money than 2/3. That way I make money when someone swaps and I make even more money when they don’t. If multiple...