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The proposer’s odds: 66% if you don’t switch 33% if you do switch The only way it’s not is if your change the scenario,

It’s easy and free entertainment. It’s like being at an aquarium. You look at odd and interesting shit and sometimes tap on the glass.

Someone’s buying them. As they are still in business. There’s only two options now: -they are doing fine and haven’t seen any decrease in sales or other things to indicate they need to “catch up” to everyone else -they are making a poor business decision by not keeping up and will either go...

Now you’re just making shit up.

No, you get to open one door, 33% or 66% Regardless of how many times you get to pick.

Again, not how life works. One time or a million. Odds are odds. Our public education fails yet again.

Confidence intervals are the real meat and potatoes of predictable outcomes in life. I know that by switching, I’m going to be 66.6r% odds. So it’s the correct choice. However, I know that in 95% of situations (95% confidence interval) if I ran it 9 times, I would win anywhere from 33% of the...

For example, you could run the scenario 9 times. And anything from winning 3 times up to 9 times is “normal”. The long term would be 66.6r and 33.3r, however, it’s almost never going to hit those numbers exactly without an exponentially large sample size.

It’s actually not perfectly 67 and 33 once you figure in confidence intervals and such. But people aren’t able to understand the non complicated explanation. So, not even going to go down that rabbit hole.

At this point, I’m not being intelligent arguing with someone who has zero idea what they are saying. Enjoy thinking that outcomes = odds. With your logic, everything in life is an coin flip because you either get something or you don’t. Carry on.

That’s not how it works. It’s 33% and 66%. In the scenario you posted on the first post, it’s literally impossible to ever be 50%.

Holy shit you’re dumb. LOL

Have you read this thread at all? Or read the literal hundreds of pages on Google about this? You don’t need 100 tries for odds to be odds. When you get in your car tomorrow, (going to make up numbers here) and the odds of dying are say 2%. But, the two possible outcomes are that you either...

The only hustle in this scenario is when people such as yourself pull 50% out of thin air when it’s 33% and 66%. That’s the hustle. Letting people lie to themselves when they could get the best odds possible without knowing.

So, you’ve decided you’re smarter than everyone over the last 30 years including the computer simulations?

Ya. I deleted them because I explained it incorrectly. You are correct on the odds. The only determining factor of the “proper” choice is what the player knows when Monty doesn’t know. That’s just the game theory side of it.

I deleted my previous posts as I didn’t explain it correctly. This starts getting into what the odds are vs the play. If he doesn’t know where the car is, and he can open it and you lose, then yes, you don’t get any different odds when he randomly opens the goat. *However* the proper...

Awesome. I was about to pick one up. Will keep an eye out for the AZ premium hopefully.

It’s all the same. If you decide to play someone, and you’re not getting odds on your money (almost unheard of in pool) then any edge is a good bet. As long as you win 51% of the time, it’s a good bet. If not, it’s a bad bet. No different than any other thing in life. Driving a car to work...

Which is another very good point. This scenario makes a very good prop bet because people feel like switching is a bad thing. Evidenced by the website listed earlier. Almost twice as many didn’t switch doors and they lost 65% of the time not switching.