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Depends on the odds. If I gave you 3:1 odds just to pick a single door and stick with it, that’s a good bet. 2:1 is even money. In the guessing and switching scenario, you are actually a 2:1 favorite. So, it’s almost always a good bet. I seriously hope you don’t gamble a lot.

Depends on the scenario. The exact scenario says you pick a door. Then the host opens a door showing a goat and gives you the option. If you knew going in that he was going to open the door and show a goat, you should have already made the decision to switch. If you didn’t, know that, then he...

Pretty close overall. But, he is definitely revealing new info. He is revealing exactly where the car is 66% of the time. Which is new info and it’s huge info.

Another way of looking at it…… When using the always switch strategy, to win, your first pick has to be a goat. If there are two goats and one car…..what are the odds of picking a goat (which is the requirement to win when you switch)?? 66% chance of picking a goat. Which in turn means 66%...

Lol. You’re really having trouble with this. 33% of people who didn’t switch won big. 66% of people who did switch won big. Anything different is pure statistical variance. Statistical variance is why casinos stay in business. Many people win in the short term. But almost everyone loses in...

There’s only two answers. Neither is 100% Keep your door, 33% you live, change doors, 66% you live. Math has never killed anyone.

Age of information. Doesn’t matter what the subject. It’s no longer required that you need to find mentor/s or long apprenticeships as the sole means of education. Obviously there’s still a place for mentors and apprenticeships. But, before that was the only way information was passed. So, it...

The odds are 33% on not switching 66% on switching. 1/3 and 2/3 There is zero other way to look at it. The odds are the odds are the odds. *in this very specific scenario* If you change something in the scenario, the odds are different.

Let’s make it life or death. You have no choice. You have to play the game. Let’s say the Jigsaw killer said “let’s play a game.” -There are 3 doors. Behind one of them is a gun that kills you if you open that door. There is nothing behind the other two doors. -You have to pick a door...

A more proper example would be: You have no choice to play and it’s life or death. Do you switch doors? In that scenario, you double your chances of living by switching doors.

This logic is why casinos are still in business.

It’s funny. There’s literally only 9 possible scenarios. It’s not even remotely complicated.

Not sure what else to tell you. It’s so relevant it literally doubles your chances of picking right. He knows where the car is *AND* he can’t open that door.

If he’s clueless and opens the goat….. It’s now 50/50 if you have the car or he does. His knowledge of what’s behind the doors is the “trick” part of the question. Along with not being allowed to open the door with the car.

Because he is not allowed to open the car. So, 66% of the time, after you pick a door, the two doors left are a car and a goat. 33% of the time it’s a goat and a goat. When we swap the door every time, we accept that we are going to lose 33% of the time. That is gone, lost, out of here. But...

The pizza was $25. He kept $2 for a tip. That’s $27. Leaves $3. Each one got a dollar back. So, they each spent $8.33 on the pizza. And they each tipped him $0.66. $8.33 + $0.66 = $8.99

That doesn’t justify making a choice that gives you 33%. The scenario doesn’t allow for 100%. So you have a choice. 33% or 66%

If you only played a mega millions lotto number once in your lifetime…. Are the odds 50/50 because you either win or you lose? The stats don’t have time to play out……

That’s not how stats or life works.

It’s only 50/50 if Monte doesn’t know what the cards are and if somehow a goat was opened out of the last two cards. Once he sees them and can’t open the car….. The choice is no longer 50/50 It’s 66/33