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This was fun. But, I’m going to sleep for the day now. If anyone wants to take me up on the bet, I’ll give 3/2 odds. If you think it’s 50/50, you can make enough money to retire on.

I’ve tried explaining this is every way possible. He’s either a troll or just not smart enough to grasp the concept. He continually ignores the free money. So, hopefully just trolling.

If I *never* choose the door I picked first….. I will be correct 66%

I will be able to tell you where the car is 66% of the time. Y or N??

Mix 3 cards up. Face down. 2, 2, A Do it 100 times. Pull one to the side. Look at the other two. And turn over a 2 from those two. I will tell you where the A is out of the last two cards not turned over….. 66 times

The car will be in the door I didn’t choose and he didn’t open….. Literally 66/100 666/1000 Etc

It matters because I know where the car is 66% if the time. I can literally tell you which of the two doors the car is….. 66 times out of 100

If it doesn’t matter, come take my money. I’m not joking. I’ll bring $500k if you want.

66% of the time, the car will be in the card he didn’t turn over and you don’t have in your hand.

The only way this scenario could be 50/50 is if he turned over the goat, then mixed up the other two cards and you had to pick.

Absolutely nothing to do with this scenario.

But 66% of the time he has to eliminate the goat when he has the car. That’s the kicker. Because he has no choice in 66% of scenarios.

The initial 33/66% can’t magically disappear unless the door he opens is random. Someone is going to have a 66% chance in this scenario. If you swap, you’ll be the one with 66% If you don’t, you’ll be the one with 33%

I’d suggest you never gamble then. That’s literally how winners gamble. They pick the favorite over the long run. Unless they have the proper odds on money. 66% is 66%

No, because he doesn’t get to choose which card to eliminate 66% of the time. 66/100 times he will look at the two cards/doors and he will see one goat and one car. So, those 66 times out of 100, he has *NO* choice which door or card to show you.

Because you don’t understand probability and gambling. You either need to be the favorite to win or have the corrects odds. You would need 2:1 odds to not swap doors

66% of the time, the two you didn’t pick will be a Goat and Car. With a goat in your hand. 33% of the time you will pick the car and the other two will be goats.

If you don’t swap doors, you win the whole car 33% of the time. If you swap doors, you win the whole car 66% of the time. That’s literally how it plays. If you want to win the whole car, you swap doors to give yourself the best chance. If you don’t swap, and you still win the whole car, you...

No, I just understand basic probability and you don’t.

Holy shit dude. That’s the exact scenario, just from the person picking the doors POV. There’s literally no difference.