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  1. mikepage

    Measurable Improvement from Equipment Change

    One difficulty is it takes a LOT of play to nail down a level, and so looking for modest changes is asking a lot. I used to do 10-15 innings of equal offense around 5-6am most mornings. I had the intuitive feeling that with certain kinds of music I was more likely "in the zone," and played...
  2. mikepage

    Medellin open WNT ranking event

    It's on Tournamentapp.de, a German system. Seems there were 32 8-player double elimination groups that each qualified 2. Here are those 64 qualifiers. Appears it it DE to 32 and then SE. https://www.tournamentapp.de/kalender-details-gruppen-raster.php?tID=1421&tabID=2245
  3. mikepage

    Medellin open WNT ranking event

    That would be Elliot Sanderson, 751, from GBR vs Brayan Lobo, from Columbia
  4. mikepage

    My Fargorate progression

    Nice update. Just a clarification. Your friend doesn't have a starter rating of "0." He doesn't have one at all. That means the preliminary rating he sees is totally based on the performance and is not tethered to a guess.
  5. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    You can even work backwards to see a 2-1 race is not an even proposition for a 100 point gap. The only way for the "2" to win the set is to win the 1st two games, and the chance of that happening is (chance of winning the first game) X (chance of winning the second game). For this to be 50%...
  6. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    What is the question?
  7. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    OK
  8. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    You are not understanding what Bob is saying. You seem to think a 6-3 match for two players 100 points apart is a 50/50 proposition. I know it seems like it should be. But it isn't.
  9. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    Also, which is a linear scale and which is a nonlinear scale is in the eye of the beholder. If we use inches for length and plot the number of trout in a stream at each length, we get a nice bell curve If we use grams for weight/mass and plot how many raspberries are at each weight we get a...
  10. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    6-4 is the race on this hot chart for a 100-point difference. It goes to 6-3 at 109 points
  11. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    Different regions are VERY different in these regards. If you are in Phoenix or Portland or Oklahoma City or Madison WI, or Calgary and a bunch of other places, people are using the APP all the time. And tons of people who play in local tournaments or match up at the pool hall have a pretty good...
  12. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    I think you're right when people are new to it or only have casual association. Things are different when players are using the ratings regularly. I had a pool room where I used them for a decade, and basically everybody--hundreds of players there--would know about what is right for a 400 vs...
  13. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    They're sort of clear in different ways. The scale on the left has the nice feature that a DIFFERENCE between two ratings always means the same thing. So the 60 points between 515 and 575 means the same thing as the 60 points between 590 and 650, etc. To note the same thing for the ratings on...
  14. mikepage

    I fixed Fargorate

    Nice! This 2^(rating/100) X 5. If you just get rid of the "X 5" it still has the properties you like and also is a reasonable estimate of your straight-pool high run. So in other words, take a couple Fargo Ratings, like 570 and 630. Move the decimal point over 570. => 5.7 630. => 6.3 Do on...
  15. mikepage

    Surprised at the "stickiness" of Fargo ratings

    I get 565 for your last 500 games since July, with the 2nd 250 being far higher than the first (587 vs 543). You have to be a little careful with that weighted average. If Gorst beats me 20-10, I'd be at 745, right? If instead Gorst and I go 9-9 one day and then he beats me 11-1 the next...
  16. mikepage

    Questions for Mike with FargoRate

    A group of players--whether it is 2 or 200--who are fully isolated from the rest of the network is what we call an island. Islands are pretty rare and mostly are counterfactuals like the one we're talking about here. Even when a low-level league, perhaps a USAPL league, starts up in a remote...
  17. mikepage

    Questions for Mike with FargoRate

    Everything you've said in recent posts is right except for this. There is no need for a starter rating, and in fact more players don't have one than have one. FargoRate would have no information to place them other than that they are 100 points apart. Yes they would have numbers, and yes they...
  18. mikepage

    My Fargorate progression

    You are not understanding the way it works. It turns out he had no starter rating at all (like more than half the players who enter the system). But even if he did, it wouldn't matter if that starter rating was 100 or 800, he'd be at the same place now.
  19. mikepage

    Apps that report to Fargo

    Two comments about this. First, the starter guesses you are talking about are outside the system. They don't affect anybody and are merely about incorporating people who don't yet have a Fargo Rating. The second thing is a LO can't change them at whim. There are restrictions. For instance...
  20. mikepage

    Current State of the WPBA Tour?

    Savannah was referred to as "only 15" in a previous post. I believe she's 13 and turns 14 next month
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