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  1. mikepage

    A new measure of tournament toughness: Harmonic Field Strength

    Having an extra round or a few extra rounds where you might get clipped by a weaker player matters less than it seems at first glance. Let's say 64 800-level players are going to play a single elimination tournament on Saturday. Then on Sunday those same 64 players play in a 128-player SE...
  2. mikepage

    A new measure of tournament toughness: Harmonic Field Strength

    Oh my mistake. I thought the top player was 850 in both cases. Carry on. Sorry.
  3. mikepage

    A new measure of tournament toughness: Harmonic Field Strength

    I think the best way is expected $$ or expected points with typical distributions, not something like chance of winning.
  4. mikepage

    A new measure of tournament toughness: Harmonic Field Strength

    Bob had a typo. The one you prefer is 840 and the other is 826.
  5. mikepage

    A new measure of tournament toughness: Harmonic Field Strength

    Depth here kinda means 800s, not the qualifier crowd.
  6. mikepage

    A new measure of tournament toughness: Harmonic Field Strength

    We are working on Monte Carlo simulations to find an optimum exponent. I have a sneaking suspicion it may actually need to go in the other direction! We’ll see.
  7. mikepage

    A new measure of tournament toughness: Harmonic Field Strength

    How Strong Was the Field? Harmonic Field Strength (HFS) as a New Way to Measure Tournament Toughness Pool pundits battle about whether the European Open or the World 10-Ball Championship had the stronger field—or which event truly ran deepest in 2025. Or which tournaments should be...
  8. mikepage

    WNT Hanoi Open 2025, Vietnam, Oct 7-12

    With all the posting you've done on the subject, you keep circling back to the ball color and a referee issue. If those two things form the core of your judgment, just let us know so we can decide whether to weight them like you do. Calling the kinds of judgments listed above "clear" is not...
  9. mikepage

    Men's 2025 World 8-Ball Championship, Bali, Oct.7-13

    He played 54 games against opponents averaging 787. The expectation from his rating is win 32, lose 22 He fell 1 game shy, winning 31 and losing 23
  10. mikepage

    Men's 2025 World 8-Ball Championship, Bali, Oct.7-13

    --At this event two years ago Hijikata beat JL Chang twice, the 2nd time 10-5 to get to quarterfinals --A month later he beat Chua 11-3 and Yapp 11-8 to get to finals of All Japan --2024 China Open he beat Jui An Hsu, Kun Lin Wu, and Nayoiki Oi (11-6) to face Filler in the finals. Though he...
  11. mikepage

    WNT Hanoi Open 2025, Vietnam, Oct 7-12

    This is what we know. 743 with 220 games before this event.
  12. mikepage

    WNT Hanoi Open 2025, Vietnam, Oct 7-12

    Following the break, one suit is easier to run and the other is harder (forget for a minute that the players won't always agree which is which). The two ways we tend to play 8-Ball are (1) Open table --player never shoots the hard suit (2) Take-what-you-make --player shoots the hard suit...
  13. mikepage

    Peri 9 Ball Open - Oct 2-5

    I see ASIA --Hong Kong --Philippines --Indonesia --Taiwan X 4 ROW --Bosnia and Herzegovina --Germany --Austria --United States X 2 --Albania --Spain --Poland --Serbia Quarterfinals have 3 guaranteed ROW and 2 Guaranteed ASIA with 3 up for grabs (Wu Kun Lin vs Wiktor Zielinski) (Edward...
  14. mikepage

    Fargo Ratings

    It looks like the answer can't be YES to both of these. But it kind of is. What goes into the calculation engine is just date, opponent, and W or L for each game, consistent with what Pat asks here. But there are 58 million of these games. And bundled together they form a highly connected...
  15. mikepage

    Fargo Ratings

    Here's another thing that trips people up. Imagine Victor grows up playing on 7-foot tables only and Hugo grows up playing on 9-foot tables only. Both players get to the point they can beat the 9-Ball ghost 15% of the time on their usual table. We'd I think all agree Hugo is a better player...
  16. mikepage

    Fargo Ratings

    This makes sense, right? Pretty much any individual task is easier on the 7-foot table and harder on the 9-foot table.
  17. mikepage

    Fargo Ratings

    Yes, I get your claim here. It just has nothing to do with Fargo Ratings, right?
  18. mikepage

    Fargo Ratings

    You titled this thread "Fargo Ratings," but it seems like a claim about the best or most efficient way to develop at pool. Does this relate to Fargo Ratings in some way I don't see?
  19. mikepage

    Josh Filler 2025 results

    869.4 without one pocket 870.3 with one pocket included
  20. mikepage

    Josh Filler 2025 results

    I don't mean merely that he has the highest Fargo Rating. He started the year with that. So just to maintain the gap, he'd have to outperform everyone else in 2025. I mean his actual performance has exceeded even that high expectation, and he is outperforming everybody else by a bigger margin...
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