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  1. mikepage

    SJM Sizes up 2025 in Pro Pool

    Here are many 2025 tournaments listed by Harmonic Field Strength, a measure of how tough it is to go deep. Blue bars are the ones on Spartan's list. The discontinuous gap between China Open and International Open is interesting. Some tournaments are hurt by scheduling while others (like Peri...
  2. mikepage

    Bergman will play WNT events in 2026

    You have a mental image of a "9-foot player" of a certain skill, say 600, who can go to a 7-foot table and adapt pretty easily. And of a somehow similar "7-foot player" who struggles on a 9-foot table because he has less transferrable skills. But those two players don't have the same rating...
  3. mikepage

    Bergman will play WNT events in 2026

    There is nothing stopping us from using all the data, 7-foot, 9-foot, and simply creating separate ratings like people think we should do. Flattering expectations can help adoption in the short term. Producing the most reliable ratings is what sustains trust and value in the long term.
  4. mikepage

    Bergman will play WNT events in 2026

    True. But I'm wondering...do you think we have some secret ulterior reason to mislead you on this issue?
  5. mikepage

    Predator's WPA Women's World 9 Ball

    You've cited several good examples Stu. An interesting contrast is Pia Blaeser, who as a 17, 18, 19, and 20 year old was performing in the 640-650 range, 30+ points below where Savannah and Sofia are now and about 80 points below a teenage Kristina Tkatch. She did get a new sparring partner...
  6. mikepage

    Predator's WPA Women's World 9 Ball

    I'm saying they're both performing near 680 now. Two years ago both were performing around 630s and 3 years ago both near 600. Their Fargo ratings (both in 650s now) lags behind. This is not a general problem. Fargo ratings are not too sticky. This is an issue only for a very small number of...
  7. mikepage

    Predator's WPA Women's World 9 Ball

    I am meaning more than simply comparing their ratings. Both are punching above their ratings by near 30 points and have been performing in the 680 range. I'm saying even when we break it down and estimate performance for 1000-game segments or 6-month segments or whatever, and difference in their...
  8. mikepage

    Predator's WPA Women's World 9 Ball

    We see their performance as pretty much indistinguishable over the last 3 years
  9. mikepage

    My Fargorate progression

    I think it's a different person from MA (facebook says graduated HS in 1998) who plays about 650 speed. I think you are right the other Tony's old matches are in his record, but those games are basically ignored and have no effect on this guys rating.
  10. mikepage

    Mosconi Cup 2025, Dec. 3-6, Alexandra Palace, London

    Below is about what FargoRate predicts in terms of scores (heights are percentages). While 11-8 or so is the most likely score, it still has only about 10% chance of being realized. So more likely Europe wins 11 to 4-or-fewer than Europe wins 11-8 More likely USA wins than Europe wins 11-to-7...
  11. mikepage

    Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

    This is from Iusedtoberich, post # 39. He was 480 with 87 games and then 547 when he reached 200 games a few months later
  12. mikepage

    Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

    lol Started at Starbucks. Too many Mikes on the planet, and you notice it in a small crowd waiting for your Cappuccino with a name on the cup. So I thought I don't really need to be MIKE at Starbucks, I can choose a Starbucks name that is unique and easy to say. I chose Vito. Before long, the...
  13. mikepage

    Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

    Answering your last question first, yes, ratings are more uncertain at any robustness when FargoRate doesn't know much about your opponents. But in "typical" situations, where we know most of your opponents but some are more unknown, the situation is about as follows: Let's say your rating is...
  14. mikepage

    Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

    That's Vito who would enter THAT tournament ;-)
  15. mikepage

    Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

    To the extent they have about 100 games, the preliminary ratings with starter-rating influence would be about halfway between the black and blue lines.
  16. mikepage

    Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

    Turns out I live in a rural area with a couple real small race to 2 or 3 weekly tournaments. I started getting them in the system a couple months ago. Every black-line rating here is a preliminary performance rating (no starter guess) based on an average of about 100 games. Nobody but Vito...
  17. mikepage

    Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

    For what it's worth, --he's posting anonymously --he's not responsive to follow-up questions --I can't find a recent exchange in our support system that fits his description (might be missing it, though) --None of the brand new players from the International under 650 event who started with no...
  18. mikepage

    Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

    Can you let us know what tournament it was?
  19. mikepage

    SJM at the 2025 International Open

    I think the Spanish Open part is staying in line with other Eurotour events, with yes modest payouts compared to major events, but also has --relatively modest $200 Euro entry --attracts nearly 200 entrants from many different countries, --has a Harmonic Field Strength of 800.4 (in line with...
  20. mikepage

    International Open 2025

    And last month he competed both in World 8-Ball and the Philippines Open
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