Break Stats -- Derby City Classic 9-Ball, Jan./Feb. 2020

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2020 Derby City Classic 9-Ball event played January 29 - February 1 at Caesars Southern Indiana Hotel & Casino in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats.

This event had 408 players, and operated under the standard DCC format of redrawing match pairings for every round, with one buy-back permitted for each player. All races were to 9 except the final match to 11. Lee Vann Corteza won the event.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches included:

The 10 streamed matches (135 games) were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. No TPA was given for two of the matches. [Note: The stats are for 133 games instead of 135 as they exclude 2 games in the Al Shaheen/Woodward match when my stream was down.]

Thurs. Jan 30

Fri., Jan. 31

Sat., Feb. 1

Overall results


Here's a breakdown of the 133 breaks (for match winners and losers combined).

Legal, made at least one ball, and no foul:

Illegal, made at least one ball, and no foul:

Fouled (includes 1 break that was both fouled and illegal):

Legal, dry, and no foul:

Illegal, dry, and no foul:

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% of all games (75 of 133),

Break-and-run games -- The 39 break-and-run games represented 29% of all 133 games, 52% of the 75 games won by the breaker, and 42% of the 92 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 39 break-and-run games consisted of 1 5-pack (Filler), 1 4-pack (Aranas), 5 2-packs, and 20 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 39 break-and-run games included 3 9-balls on the break (2.3% of the 133 breaks). With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.

Miscellany from the data for the 2020 DCC 9-Ball event
[This relates only to the 10 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4 -- done just once, by Melling. He won the game but not by B&R.

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.4. On successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul), the average was 1.7.

• 53% (71 of 133) of the games ended in one inning – 29% (39) won by the breaker (B&R) and 24% (32) won by the non-breaker. 8% (10 of 133) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 43% (57 of 133) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 42% (39 of 92)
- By the non-breaker after wet but illegal breaks -- 47% (7 of 15)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 75% (6 of 8)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 28% (5 of 18)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 65% of the time (84 of 130)
- Won the game in a later inning 14% of the time (18 of 130)
- Lost the game 22% of the time (28 of 130)
[Note -- total games used here are 130 rather than 133 to eliminate the 3 games in which no ball was made after the break.]

• For the 9 races to 9 (excludes the Finals), the loser won an average of 4.3 games. Only 1 match went to hill/hill. The most lopsided match was 9-1.

• The average elapsed time for the 9 races to 9 was 66 minutes, averaging 4.9 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at 124 minutes, was Barretta d. Korsiak 9-8. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 7.9, was Atencio d. Jelatis 9-4.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 25 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 2.3, was Filler d. Van Boening 9-2.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 16.6 games, other fouls 1 for every 5.3 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.4 games.

• About 35% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Mean of Accu-Stats Match TPAs for DCC 9-Ball

These averages are for the streamed matches for which TPAs were given by Accu-Stats -- 8 matches in 2020, 8 matches in 2019, 10 matches in 2018, 7 in 2017, 9 in 2016, 9 in 2015, and 6 in 2014.

For match winners

For match losers

For both winners and losers

[Note: These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPAs calculated for each of the 3 groups.]

Bob Jewett said:

I was wondering if you noticed which ball was going most of the time. It looks like 80% (107/133?) of the breaks were wet.

Click to expand...

Probably close to two-thirds of the balls made on the break were either (a) the 1-ball in the side pocket on the opposite side of the table from the breaker or (b) the wing ball on the same side of the table as the breaker, in the nearest corner pocket. I'd estimate that the a's numbered twice the b's.