Stats -- Pagulayan vs. Bustamante 10-Ball Race to 25, May 2020

AtLarge

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Here are some stats from the Alex Pagulayan vs. Francisco Bustamante 10-Ball race to 25 played May 5, 2020 at Ray Hansen's home in Texas. Pay-per-view live streaming was provided by PoolActionTV.

This was Day 5 of a best-3-out-of-5 Champions Challenge All-Around match, with a different discipline played each day for up to 5 days. Remote commentary (by phone) was provided on Day 5 by Larry Schwartz (1st 24 games) Jeremy Jones (last 21 games). Ray Hansen also commentated, from a room in his home separate from the pool room. Pagulayan won the set 25-20.

The match ended with Pagulayan winning 3 set to 2 for Bustamante. Scores for each Day/Discipline (Pagulayan's score first):
Day 1 -- 12 - 15, 15-Ball Filipino Rotation (stats here: https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=511474)
Day 2 -- 16 - 13, 9-Ball Banks (stats here: https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=511534)
Day 3 -- 12 - 25, 8-Ball (stats here: https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=511573)
Day 4 -- 10 - 7, One-Pocket (stats here: https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=511636)
Day 5 -- 25 - 20, 10-Ball
Total -- 75 - 80​

Conditions -- The conditions for this set included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with standard pro-cut pockets and blue Simonis 860-HR cloth;
- Aramith Tournament balls with a measles cue ball;
- Accu-Rack Pro-10 racking template;
- rack your own, with the 1-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners;
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- all slop counts (except not sure of 10-ball on the break; did not occur);
- no shot clock; and
- lag for opening break (won by Bustamante).​

■ Pagulayan broke 24 times -- successful 13 times (resulting in 7 game wins and 6 losses), 1 foul (a loss), and 10 dry (5 wins, 5 losses).

■ Bustamante broke 21 times -- successful 16 times (resulting in 7 game wins and 9 losses), 1 foul (a loss), and 4 dry (1 win, 3 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Pagulayan -- 13 of 24 (54%)
Bustamante -- 16 of 21 (76%)
Total -- 29 of 45 (64%)​

Unsuccessful breaks (fouled or dry):
Pagulayan -- 11 of 24 (46%)
Bustamante -- 5 of 21 (24%)
Total -- 16 of 45 (36%)​

Breaker won game:
Pagulayan -- 12 of 24 (50%)
Bustamante -- 8 of 21 (38%)
Total -- 20 of 45 (44%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Pagulayan -- 7 of 24 (29%)
Bustamante -- 4 of 21 (19%)
Total -- 11 of 45 (24%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Pagulayan -- 7 of 13 (54%)
Bustamante -- 4 of 16 (25%)
Total -- 11 of 29 (38%)​

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
Pagulayan -- 9 fouls, including 1 on the break, in 41 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 4.6 games at the table)
Bustamante -- 8 fouls, including 1 on the break, in 38 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 4.8 games at the table)
Total -- 17 fouls in 45 games (1 per 2.6 games)​

Missed shots (est.):
Pagulayan -- 10 misses in 41 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 4.1 games at the table)
Bustamante -- 12 misses in 38 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 3.2 games at the table)
Total -- 22 misses in 45 games (1 per 2.0 games)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Pagulayan after his own successful break -- 7 of 13 (54%)
By Pagulayan after Bustamante's failed break -- 2 of 5 (40%)
By Pagulayan, total -- 9 of 18 (50%)

By Bustamante after his own successful break -- 4 of 16 (25%)
By Bustamante after Pagulayan's failed break -- 4 of 11 (36%)
By Bustamante, total -- 8 of 27 (30%)

Total for Pagulayan and Bustamante -- 17 of 45 (38%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Pagulayan's break:
By Pagulayan -- 7 of 13 (54%)
By Bustamante -- 4 of 11 (36%)
Total -- 11 of 24 (46%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Bustamante's break:
By Bustamante -- 4 of 16 (25%)
By Pagulayan -- 2 of 5 (40%)
Total -- 6 of 21 (29%)​

Break-and-run packages
Pagulayan's 7 B&R games consisted of 2 2-packs and 3 singles
Bustamante's 4 B&R games were all singles​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est):
by Pagulayan only -- 5
by Bustamante only -- 6
by both -- 7
Total games with 1 or more safeties -- 40% (18 of 45)​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Pagulayan -- 0.8 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks
Bustamante -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks
Total -- 1.0 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​

Number of innings -- 53% (24 of 45) of the games ended in one inning. 11 games ended on the breaker's first inning (B&R games), 13 games ended on the non-breaker's first inning, 2 games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 5 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 31% (14 of 45) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the non-breaker's 6th visit.

10-balls on the break -- None. [I didn't hear any mention of what the rule was if one had occurred.]

Set length -- about 4 hours and 9 minutes, for an average of 5.5 minutes per game. [Note: This includes racking and 2 timeouts totaling about 18 minutes. Excluding those timeouts, the average was 5.1 minutes per game.]
 
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It was some good pool to watch and you provide some good number to mull over. Thanks AtLarge!
 
Missed shots (est.):
Pagulayan -- 10 misses in 41 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 4.1 games at the table)
Bustamante -- 12 misses in 38 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 3.2 games at the table)
Total -- 22 misses in 45 games (1 per 2.0 games)

Yeeeeeowch. I gotta long way to go.
 
Thank You

When i learned last night i wouldn’t be able
To stream last night’s ten ball match, i was disappointed.
But i consoled myself by saying, oh well,
I’m sure i will read about it tomorrow morning from AtLarge,
It’ll be like the old days when you didn’t find out about
The game until the next day’s morning paper.
 
It would be interesting if Tyler Styer can keep up with these guys long race 10b.

Tyler fargo 753 but BNR rate 40%!

Alex BNR 29%, which sounds about right.

Tyler probably the #2 10b American player right now. It would be very close match vs Skyler and Justin.
 
I guess the break ISN'T always the most important shot for the pros.

Bustamante was the guy at the table after the break a lot more times than Pagulayan, but he got out from there only 30% of the time. The winners of recent big 10-Ball matches have been right around 50% in that regard. Sometimes the difference can be just in how the balls present themselves after the break, and that results from a combination of luck and breaking skill.
 
Bustamante was the guy at the table after the break a lot more times than Pagulayan, but he got out from there only 30% of the time. The winners of recent big 10-Ball matches have been right around 50% in that regard. Sometimes the difference can be just in how the balls present themselves after the break, and that results from a combination of luck and breaking skill.

yea, it's not just the binary successful/unsuccessful break that matters, but also rock control and numbers of balls left. a guy that averages one ball will be less likely to have a shot after the break than a guy that averages two balls, given the same cue ball control. imo it's definitely the most important shot
 
Pags gotta work on his break.

It seemed like he j-u-s-t missed making a second-row ball in the side quite a bit. You need to tell him the right formula for that.:)

[or keep him away from another 10-Ball match with SVB]
 
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