8 ball tactic scenario II

[Cardinal2B]

Here's what I was left with last night, shooting solids:
START(
%CY8D3%Hq2Y7%JZ8I5%M[2Y0%P]1V4

)END

Two choices I see:
One, attempt to kick in the 3 ball, which if you make the shot means you win as the 8 is a duck; if you miss, you lose 'cause you're playing someone who can / will run out the stripes & the 8.
Two, attempt to roll the 10 up to the 3 ball, locking it up with the 3 on the rail, giving opponent ball-in-hand. Get it right, and the 10 becomes 'impossible' to sink even with ball-in-hand.
Both pretty difficult.
What's your call? See any other options?

 

[Cornerman]

Here's what I was left with last night, shooting solids:
START(
%CY8D3%Hq2Y7%JZ8I5%M[2Y0%P]1V4

)END

Two choices I see:
One, attempt to kick in the 3 ball, which if you make the shot means you win as the 8 is a duck; if you miss, you lose 'cause you're playing someone who can / will run out the stripes & the 8.
Two, attempt to roll the 10 up to the 3 ball, locking it up with the 3 on the rail, giving opponent ball-in-hand. Get it right, and the 10 becomes 'impossible' to sink even with ball-in-hand.
Both pretty difficult.
What's your call? See any other options?

Pray.

The defensive is about the same as the offensive percentage-wise. I'd go offensive.

Fred <~~~ slow kick at the three

 

[pooladdict]

Here's what I was left with last night, shooting solids:
START(
%CY8D3%Hq2Y7%JZ8I5%M[2Y0%P]1V4

)END

Two choices I see:
One, attempt to kick in the 3 ball, which if you make the shot means you win as the 8 is a duck; if you miss, you lose 'cause you're playing someone who can / will run out the stripes & the 8.
Two, attempt to roll the 10 up to the 3 ball, locking it up with the 3 on the rail, giving opponent ball-in-hand. Get it right, and the 10 becomes 'impossible' to sink even with ball-in-hand.
Both pretty difficult.
What's your call? See any other options?

If you go for locking up the 10 with the 3, it is very easy for your opponent to safe you back immediately, like this:
START(
%CY8D3%Hq2Y7%JX2D2%M[2Y0%PT9D5%]h2E4%^[7D3

)END

In my opinion you should therefore go for the kick or jump the 10-ball to make the 3-ball. Whatever you feel comfortable with. In some cases it can be a strategy to tie your opponents object ball with the eight ball, but that does not seem possible here.

Then again, you could also try Mikko's strategy, tie up the 10 ball and 3 ball and hope for a mental meltdown in your opponents head

 

[Snapshot9]

What I would do ...

The way I see it, the 10 ball would be extremely difficult
to tie up considering how the 3 is laying, and if you missed
the safety, even a little, he could shoot the 10 to the downtable
right corner, then 13 is side and 8 in corner.

I would go for a 2 rail kick shot on the 3 to the side, and even
if you did not make it, the cue could end up down by the 8,
and perhaps giving a difficult shot on the 13 to the corner, or
even get lucky behind the 8. Speed control for the kick is
a highly important factor for the shot.

 

[pooladdict]

forget jumping the 10-ball, that one was based on how I remembered the set up, didn't check. I see now that the 10 is to far away and close to the 3, whitey will fly..

 

[jsp]

Pray.

The defensive is about the same as the offensive percentage-wise. I'd go offensive.

Fred <~~~ slow kick at the three

I disagree. From the way you placed the 3 ball, you have a VERY narrow window for the side pocket. Playing the kick is just too low percentage. I'd take my chances on the tie up, and make HIM work to return safety or break up the cluster. Any time you have a shot that you'd make only 10% of the time, i'd always rather have the other player do the hard work.

 

[Cardinal2B]

If you go for locking up the 10 with the 3, it is very easy for your opponent to safe you back immediately, like this:
START(
%CY8D3%Hq2Y7%JX2D2%M[2Y0%PT9D5%]h2E4%^[7D3

)END

In my opinion you should therefore go for the kick or jump the 10-ball to make the 3-ball. Whatever you feel comfortable with. In some cases it can be a strategy to tie your opponents object ball with the eight ball, but that does not seem possible here.

Then again, you could also try Mikko's strategy, tie up the 10 ball and 3 ball and hope for a mental meltdown in your opponents head

I think that is the key insight - that even with a completion of a difficult shot to lock up the 10 you leave yourself vulnerable to a bad stiff. So, since both about the same degree of difficulty, might as well go for the shot with better reward & kick at the 3 (can't jump in my league, well, can't use a jump stick anyway).

 

[Cardinal2B]

The way I see it, the 10 ball would be extremely difficult
to tie up considering how the 3 is laying, and if you missed
the safety, even a little, he could shoot the 10 to the downtable
right corner, then 13 is side and 8 in corner.

I would go for a 2 rail kick shot on the 3 to the side, and even
if you did not make it, the cue could end up down by the 8,
and perhaps giving a difficult shot on the 13 to the corner, or
even get lucky behind the 8. Speed control for the kick is
a highly important factor for the shot.

Scott - OK, I was looking at a one-rail kick on the 3 in the side (and yes, it was thin & difficult). I didn't think of a 2-rail kick...What two rails did you mean, and why would that be better than just one-rail? (does it do a better job of putting whitey down table by the 8 if you miss?)...
Just so everyone knows, I went for the lock-up, which was only semi-perfect (meaning not good) left three possible shots, my opponent with b-i-h took the one depicted here:
START(
%CZ0D1%Hq2Y7%JZ0E6%M[2Y0%P]8E9

)END
and we were hill-hill at the time, and it was 'Goodnight' from there. Like always I've been replaying the options in my mind since.

 

[Cornerman]

I disagree. From the way you placed the 3 ball, you have a VERY narrow window for the side pocket. Playing the kick is just too low percentage. I'd take my chances on the tie up, and make HIM work to return safety or break up the cluster. Any time you have a shot that you'd make only 10% of the time, i'd always rather have the other player do the hard work.

Oh, I don't know. If you slow kick and miss, you might get this, which raises your percentages:

START(
%C^3D3%Hq2Y7%JZ8I5%M[2Y0%PY6D4

)END

Fred

 

[jsp]

Oh, I don't know. If you slow kick and miss, you might get this, which raises your percentages:

START(
%C^3D3%Hq2Y7%JZ8I5%M[2Y0%PY6D4

)END

Fred

Understood. But the 13 is pretty much a hanger, and the 10-13 combo isn't too difficult. And besides, if you slow kick the 3, you run the risk of hitting the rail first before the 3, and table scratching. It's an interesting situation to discuss, because depending on the type of player you are, there is no clear cut solution to this problem. I'm naturally a defensive player, so i'd go for the tie up .

 

[Snapshot9]

This is what

Scott - OK, I was looking at a one-rail kick on the 3 in the side (and yes, it was thin & difficult). I didn't think of a 2-rail kick...What two rails did you mean, and why would that be better than just one-rail? (does it do a better job of putting whitey down table by the 8 if you miss?)...
Just so everyone knows, I went for the lock-up, which was only semi-perfect (meaning not good) left three possible shots, my opponent with b-i-h took the one depicted here:
START(
%CZ0D1%Hq2Y7%JZ0E6%M[2Y0%P]8E9

)END
and we were hill-hill at the time, and it was 'Goodnight' from there. Like always I've been replaying the options in my mind since.

This is what I had in mind: and if you hit the 3 a little thick, by accident,
then the cue would roll right down by the 8 leaving a semi tough shot.

START(
%CY8D3%Hq2Y7%JZ8I5%M[2Y0%P]1V4%Ur4P2%VU4C3%Ws1X4%XV5C1%_T3C4
%`C0I6%a[6U9
)END

 

[Cardinal2B]

This is what I had in mind: and if you hit the 3 a little thick, by accident,
then the cue would roll right down by the 8 leaving a semi tough shot.

START(
%CY8D3%Hq2Y7%JZ8I5%M[2Y0%P]1V4%Ur4P2%VU4C3%Ws1X4%XV5C1%_T3C4
%`C0I6%a[6U9
)END

got it. thanks. good thought.

 

[Colin Colenso]

As jsp noted, the angle into the center looks nearly impossible.

I'd probably play it as shown below, trying to make the 3 in the long corner, playing at speed for the CB to follow where the black line indicates.

If I hit it badly enough, I'd expect a thinner contact that would send my CB down toward the 8-ball, the blue line giving me a 2nd chance of maybe hooking the opponent or giving him a tough shot.

Note: I tried a GIF file for a change...looks a bit ugly

 

[Snapshot9]

Colin ...

As jsp noted, the angle into the center looks nearly impossible.

I'd probably play it as shown below, trying to make the 3 in the long corner, playing at speed for the CB to follow where the black line indicates.

If I hit it badly enough, I'd expect a thinner contact that would send my CB down toward the 8-ball, the blue line giving me a 2nd chance of maybe hooking the opponent or giving him a tough shot.

Note: I tried a GIF file for a change...looks a bit ugly

Colin ...Granted that is an option, but if you don't make it, you have
left a sure sellout, whereby my shot is more of a 2 way shot for defensive
incase I don't make it, possibly even being able to hook the opponent
behind the 8 ball. I like my odds better than yours, IMO.

 

[Colin Colenso]

Colin ...Granted that is an option, but if you don't make it, you have
left a sure sellout, whereby my shot is more of a 2 way shot for defensive
incase I don't make it, possibly even being able to hook the opponent
behind the 8 ball. I like my odds better than yours, IMO.

Our shots are basically identical. I was writing mine while you posted. I wasn't trying to show a different shot. In mine their is a good chance of coming 2nd rail first. I'd be aiming for rail and ball at the same time, erring on the rail first side.

The CB could go an inch or two either side creating several alternatives. I would leave an easy out if I hit the OB very solid and missed, but if I'm a bit off, the CB will travel further and wider down usually for a safety chance.

 

[PatH]

It almost looks like a small masse shot would get the job done but I'm not sure where the cueball would end up afterward. Guess I'll have to try it and see.

START(
%CY8D3%Hq2Y7%JZ8I5%M[2Y0%P]1V4%bY2D9%cY3K3%d\9U7

)END

PatH

 

[mjantti]

The way I see it, the 10 ball would be extremely difficult
to tie up considering how the 3 is laying, and if you missed
the safety, even a little, he could shoot the 10 to the downtable
right corner, then 13 is side and 8 in corner.

I would go for a 2 rail kick shot on the 3 to the side, and even
if you did not make it, the cue could end up down by the 8,
and perhaps giving a difficult shot on the 13 to the corner, or
even get lucky behind the 8. Speed control for the kick is
a highly important factor for the shot.

Yes, this is exactly what I had in mind. A great post. When the object ball isn't literally a hanger and you need a good hit to make it, I'd go for the 2 railer also. If the 3-ball would be hanging, I'd go from the short rail. The factor, that you might leave the cueball near the short rail in the other end of the table is worth taking into consideration.

 

[mjantti]

Also, there are a few things to consider here:

-If you tie up the 3-ball with your opponents ball while you have a kick available, are you going to get a better shot at the 3-ball ? Or is this kick the best shot you can come up with the safety battle ? You are looking for making your position better, not just moving the problem further away in the future.

-IMHO, it's not always about finding the 50-50 or better shot (in this case the kick to the 3-ball is well below 50-50), it's about deciding are you going to take this 20-80 shot or do you make things more complicated and are expected to have 10-90 shot later ? First of all tieing up the 3-ball with a stripe isn't a 100% shot. It's kind of adding all those upcoming odds up. If you shoot three to five 60-40 shots in a row to have a chance to win the game or you take the 20-80 shot right away is the key. In this case it seems it's likely to take the gutshot kick and hope for the best.

-If you tie up the 3-ball, you'll most likely will be shooting from a hook next time you come to the table. Well, next time you might have only a 20-80 chance to hit the 3-ball, and just hoping to get really lucky to leave a good safety.

After these points, I'd go for the kick. Most likely you won't get a better chance for this game.
Just my thoughts here...

 

[renard]

There is no defensive shot here. You have to try and make it. The masse is tough because the cueball has to break so late around the stripe. I would keep it a simple one rail kick. Reason is we need to pocket the ball. Two rails brings your chances down further at making the ball. No matter where you leave the cue ball after a missed shot your opponent has a shot.

I'm with cornerman on this make 'em shoot a combo if you miss...