9 ball spots

[jack]

Has anyone ever seen a chart of how you'd rate different spots against each other? Obviously the 6 gives more weight than giving the 8, but how would you rank the last 3 vs the 7 and the break, etc....i'd be interested to see a running chart of the various combinations......or even a list...

thanks!

 

[sjm]

Has anyone ever seen a chart of how you'd rate different spots against each other? Obviously the 6 gives more weight than giving the 8, but how would you rank the last 3 vs the 7 and the break, etc....i'd be interested to see a running chart of the various combinations......or even a list...

thanks!

There's no real way to do it, as the break means more to some and less to others, and the same is true of ball spots.

Games on the wire, though, is another matter. A game on the wire means the same to me as it does to any other player.

A concept useful in understanding the games on the wire concept is the implied win percentage (which, for the math geeks out there, is based on negative binomial probability). If a player who can give x games on the wire in a race to y will have an even money chance to win the set if his probabability of winning any given rack is z, then z is his implied winning percentage.

As the most common competitive races are to 5, 7, and 9, here are some implied winning percentages for those races:

Race to Five
1 games on wire, implied win percentage = .5598
2 games on wire, implied win percentage = .6359

Race to seven
1 games on wire, implied win percentage = .5405
2 games on wire, implied win percentage = .5881
3 games on wire, implied win percentage = .6449

Race to Nine
1 games on wire, implied win percentage = .5306
2 games on wire, implied win percentage = .5652
3 games on wire, implied win percentage = .6046
4 games on wire, implied win percentage = .6498

Hence, I can only give up 2 on 7 if I feel my chance of winning any given rack is 58.81% or better. Three on nine, which requires an implied win percentage of 60.46% is a little tougher to give up than two on seven, as its implied win percentage is higher. Two on nine is just a hair tougher to give up than one on five.

 

[jack]

There's no real way to do it, as the break means more to some and less to others, and the same is true of ball spots.

[snip]

thanks sjm...while the break might definitely mean more to bustamante than me, if you have two mostly evenly matched players, wouldn't it be possible to give a less than exact estimate? i know some guys will give last three and not the seven, or last two and but not the 8...I suppose, given that there isn't really an exact science to it, i'd be subjective.....but even so, i'd still be curious...
one players reasoning was that, when he was playing someone his level (and he's good), giving the last two wasn't so much of a spot...the reasoning being that at that point he'd expect the other player could normally win...whereas giving the 8 would help him out all game...

 

[sjm]

thanks sjm...while the break might definitely mean more to bustamante than me, if you have two mostly evenly matched players, wouldn't it be possible to give a less than exact estimate? i know some guys will give last three and not the seven, or last two and but not the 8...I suppose, given that there isn't really an exact science to it, i'd be subjective.....but even so, i'd still be curious...
one players reasoning was that, when he was playing someone his level (and he's good), giving the last two wasn't so much of a spot...the reasoning being that at that point he'd expect the other player could normally win...whereas giving the 8 would help him out all game...

The whole subject is a matter of opinion, but I'd be happy to offer mine.

The last two is a huge spot between two weak players, yet has almost no value at top level. Ginky once told me that, against a fellow pro, he'd rather give the last two than one on the wire to thirteen. Think about it, at pro level, how many racks are lost by the guy who made the second to last ball on the table? If you said very few, you nailed that question.

The eight is worth more as it can be made on a combo, and is worth a game on seven at high level. The seven is probably worth two games on nine.
At a fairly high level, the last three is fairly comparable to the seven.
I'd guess that the break is probably worth about a game on nine at very high levels of play.