Break Stats -- 2016 Texas Open !0-Ball Championship, February 2016

AtLarge

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2016 Texas Open 10-Ball Championship played February 12-14, 2016 at Skinny Bob's Billiards in Round Rock, TX with pay-per-view streaming by PoolActionTV. This was a 128-player, double-elimination event.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Brunswick Gold Crown III 9-foot table with fairly lenient pockets;​
- Super Aramith Pro balls with a red logo cue ball;​
- Accu-Rack Dedicated 10 racking template;​
- rack your own with the 1-ball on the foot spot and the 2- and 3-balls on the back corners;​
- alternating breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- cue-ball fouls only; and​
- all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break in either foot-rail pocket).​

The stats are for the following 20 matches, all of which were streamed from the same table. These matches totaled 231 games, but I had streaming problems during 12 of the games, so the stats are for 219 games.

Fri., Feb. 12
Jeffrey Ignacio defeated Casey Crews 7-0​
Roberto Gomez d. Mark Mendoza 7-5 (stats exclude 1 game)​
Dennis Orcollo d. John Demet 7-4 (stats exclude 1 game)​
Sat., Feb. 13
James Davis, Jr. d. Chris Baggett 7-4​
Ignacio d. Tony Chohan 7-4 (stats exclude 2 games)​
Junior Jueco d. Robb Saez 7-5 (stats exclude 5 games)​
Jose Bear d. John Palmore 7-6​
Ernesto Dominguez d. Zack Sanderson 7-0​
Skyler Woodward d. Ruben Bautista 7-5 (stats exclude 1 game)​
Jason Klatt d. Oscar Dominguez 7-6​
Tony Chohan d. Charlie Bryant 7-6 (stats exclude 1 game)​
Tony Chohan d. Shane Harvey 7-4​
Sun., Feb. 14
Woodward d. Warren Kiamco 7-3​
Robb Saez d. Mendoza 7-3​
Orcollo d. Jeremy Jones 7-3​
Gomez d. CJ Wiley 7-1 (stats exclude 1 game)​
Orcollo d. Woodward 7-5​
Gomez d. Jueco 7-4​
Woodward d. Gomez 7-6​
Woodward d. Orcollo 7-5 and 7-5​
Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 63% of the time (137 of 219), won 53% of the games (116 of 219), and broke and ran 18% of the games (40 of 219).
Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 219 games.
Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 79 (36% of the 219 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 58 (26%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 5 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 8 (4%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 32 (15%)​
Breaker lost the game: 37 (17%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 53% (116) of all 219 games,​
He won 58% (79 of 137) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 38% (5 of 13) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 46% (32 of 69) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 45% (37 of 82) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​
Break-and-run games -- The 40 break-and-run games represented 18% of all 219 games, 34% of the 116 games won by the breaker, and 29% of the 137 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).
With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 40 break-and-run games (including one 10-ball on the break) consisted of 9 alternate-break 2-packs and 22 singles. No one broke and ran 3 or more games in a row on his own break.

10-balls on the break -- The 10-ball was made on the break 4 times (1.8% of the 219 breaks), but 3 of those 4 had to be spotted (with the breaker continuing to shoot) rather than counting as a win.
 
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An oddity in the 2-set finals ...

Both sets not only ended at the same score -- 7-5 in Sky's favor -- but the score after each game was exactly the same in the two sets (Sky's score first):

1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 4-2, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, 6-5, 7-5.

And in both sets -- Dennis broke and ran Game 10 to tie it, Sky broke and ran Game 11 to take the lead, and Dennis fouled in Game 12 to lose it (although they were different types of fouls).
 
Hi AtLarge

Thank you very much for this valuable information.

"Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 63% of the time (137 of 219), won 53% of the games (116 of 219), and broke and ran 18% of the games (40 of 219)."

So, roughly 2 thirds the breaker has a chance to go on... which does not mean he has a decent opening. If you are forced to push, one at pro level is at a disadvantage. Eventually, the breaker wins only half of these tables. How many times do we here how important the break is!? is it?

@AtLarge: how do these numbers compare to other pro events, I assume you have gathered?
 
Hi AtLarge

Thank you very much for this valuable information.

"Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 63% of the time (137 of 219), won 53% of the games (116 of 219), and broke and ran 18% of the games (40 of 219)."

So, roughly 2 thirds the breaker has a chance to go on... which does not mean he has a decent opening. If you are forced to push, one at pro level is at a disadvantage.;

Yes, it is conventional wisdom that the player who pushes is at a disadvantage. I've looked at the numbers for this a few times. Perhaps the most recent was a couple of years ago when I combined the data from 7 tournaments -- 4 Turning Stone events (XVIII, XIX, XX, and XXI) and 3 US Open 9-Ball Championships (2011, 2012, and 2013).

Out of 2,813 games in 174 streamed matches for those 7 tournaments, 319 games (11.3%) involved a push out, and the results were as follows:

Breaker pushed and won the game -- 109​
Breaker pushed and lost the game -- 93​
Non-breaker pushed and won the game -- 57​
Non-breaker pushed and lost the game -- 60​

So, overall, the person who pushed won 166 of the 319 games (52%) and lost 153 (48%). Breakers who pushed won the majority of their pushes, but non-breakers came out about even.

So, based on that still-limited amount of data, a little over 300 pushes, I found no real confirmation of the belief that the pusher is at a disadvantage.

Eventually, the breaker wins only half of these tables. How many times do we here how important the break is!? is it?

Here's something I've posted more than once when someone asked about the significance of the break.

The percentage of games won by the breaker in pro events is generally in the range of 45% - 65%. It can get much higher than that for the top players near the end of an event when they are dialed in on the break and running out a lot. It can also be influenced by matches involving a strong player and a weak player. A very lopsided match in a winner-breaks format obviously leads to a very high "breaker-won-game" percentage.

Racking templates can also affect this number. If, for example in 9-Ball, the wing ball goes in on the break regularly, the stay-at-table percentage after the break is so high that the breaker has many more opportunities for a B&R game, and that raises the overall winning percentage for the breaker.

Despite the fact that the stats sometimes seem to indicate that it is no great advantage to be breaking, I doubt that many top players would want to give the break to an opponent coming down the stretch in a big event.

@AtLarge: how do these numbers compare to other pro events, I assume you have gathered?

Yes, I've posted results from dozens of events in recent years. You can find these threads by going to my Public Profile, clicking on the "Statistics" button, and then clicking on "Find all threads started by AtLarge."

Dr. Dave has tabulated some of my results, and those can be found here: http://billiards.colostate.edu/threads/break.html#statistics.
 
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Here's a split between the first two days of the TX Open 10-Ball and the third day (streamed matches only). Quite a difference in stats.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Fri. & Sat. -- 52% (63 of 122)
Sun. -- 76% (74 of 97)
Combined -- 63% (137 of 219)

Breaker won the game:
Fri. & Sat. -- 48% (58 of 122)
Sun. -- 60% (58 of 97)
Combined -- 53% (116 of 219)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
Fri. & Sat. -- 8% (10 of 122)
Sun. -- 31% (30 of 97)
Combined -- 18% (40 of 219)

B&R games, on successful breaks:
Fri. & Sat. -- 16% (10 of 63)
Sun. -- 41% (30 of 74)
Combined -- 29% (40 of 137)


Note that the streamed matches on Friday and Saturday, unlike those on Sunday, included quite a few players who are not professionals.
 
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