Break Stats -- 2019 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship, April 2019

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 38 9-Ball matches streamed this past week from the 2019 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, NV. This was a 252-player event produced by Matchroom Sport. Streaming was on Facebook (free) for the first 3 days and on DAZN (ppv) for the last 3 days. The format was double-elimination down to 16 players and then single-elimination to the end. Joshua Filler won the tournament, defeating Wu Jiaqing in the final match.

Conditions -- The conditions for these streamed matches included:

- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets;​

- blue Simonis cloth;​

- Accu-Rack racking template in double-elim. stage, triangle rack in single-elim. stage;​

- Aramith TV Tournament balls with the measles cue ball (except different balls were used in the first 10 streamed matches);​

- referee racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot (2-ball need not be at the back of the rack);​

- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string, with no up-close inspection of the rack;​

- no 3-point (illegal-break) rule;​

- foul on all balls;​

- jump cues allowed;​

- 40-sec. shot clock (80 sec. after the break) with one extension per player per rack; and​

- all slop counts.​

The 38 matches (619 games) on the main streaming table were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. These 38 matches represented 7.7% of the event's total of 495 matches played (excludes the 8 forfeited matches).

Sun., April 21

1. Jayson Shaw defeated Marcus Westen 11-0​

2. Justin Bergman d. Paul Juarez 11-5​

3. Skyler Woodward d. Lun Minh Phuc 11-2​

4. Shane Van Boening d. Abdullah Saeed O Alshammari 11-4​

5. Billy Thorpe d. Max Reyes 11-1​

6. Corey Deuel d. Martin Daigle 11-3​

7. Mitch Ellerman d. David Alcaide 11-6​

8. Van Boening d. Manny Perez 11-1​

9. Dennis Hatch d. Earl Strickland 11-10​

Mon., April 22

10. Albin Ouschan d. Amar Kang 11-6​

11. Marco Teutscher d. Woodward 11-5​

12. Fu Che-Wei d. Mike Dechaine 11-6​

13. Chen Siming d. Ellerman 11-3​

14. (Kevin) Cheng Yu Hsuan d, Rodney Morris 11-5​

15. Naoyuki Oi d. Johnny Archer 11-5​

16. Shaw d. Deuel 11-1​

17. Van Boening d. Johann Chua 11-2​

Tues., April 23

18. Tyler Styer d. Bergman 11-5​

19. Ouschan d. Darren Appleton 11-7​

20. James Aranas d. Thorsten Hohmann 11-10​

21. Shaw d. Petri Makkonen 11-8​

22. Van Boening d. Hatch 11-3​

23. Wang Can d. Thorpe 11-7​

Wed., April 24 -- All "Last-16" Matches

24. Joshua Filler d. Shaw 11-4​

25. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz d. Ko Ping-Chung 11-4​

26. Jeffrey De Luna d. Imran Majid 11-9​

27. Alex Pagulayan d. Aloysius Yapp 11-10​

28. Liu Haitao d. Hsu Kai-Lun 11-9​

29. Chang Yu-Lung d. Jeffrey Ignacio 11-3​

Thurs., April 25

30. Wang d. (Ryan) Hsu Jui-An 11-6 (Last 16)​

31. Wu Jiaqing d. Van Boening 11-7 (Last 16)​

32. Filler d. Sanchez-Ruiz 11-4 (Quarterfinal)​

33. De Luna d. Pagulayan 11-5 (Quarterfinal)​

34. Chang d. Liu 11-10 (Quarterfinal)​

35. Wu d. Wang 11-0 (Quarterfinal)​

Fri., April 26

36. Filler d. De Luna 11-8 (Semifinal)​

37. Wu d. Chang 11-5 (Semifinal)​

38. Filler d. Wu 13-10 (Finals)​

Overall results

■ Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 81% (324 of 400) for match winners, 73% (160 of 219) for match losers, and 78% (484 of 619) in total​

​

■ Breaker won the game -- 76% (302 of 400) for match winners, 46% (101 of 219) for match losers, and 65% (403 of 619) in total​

​

■ Break-and-run games -- 39% (157 of 400) for match winners, 24% (53 of 219) for match losers, and 34% (210 of 619) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 619 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:

Breaker won the game: 344 (56% of the 619 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 140 (23%)​

Breaker fouled on the break:

Breaker won the game: 3 (0%)​

Breaker lost the game: 18 (3%)​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):

Breaker won the game: 56 (9%)​

Breaker lost the game: 58 (9%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 65% (403 of 619) of all games,

He/she won 71% (344 of 484) of the games in which he/she made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​

He/she won 14% (3 of 21) of the games in which he/she fouled on the break.​

He/she won 49% (56 of 114) of the games in which he/she broke dry but did not foul.​

He/she won 44% (59 of 135) of the games in which he/she either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games -- The 210 break-and-run games represented 34% of all 619 games, 52% of the 403 games won by the breaker, and 43% of the 484 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 210 break-and-run games consisted of 3 four-packs (2 by Van Boening and 1 by Shaw), 11 three-packs, 35 two-packs, and 95 singles. No one broke and ran more than 4 games in a row in these streamed matches.

9-Balls on the break -- The 210 break-and-run games included 4 9-balls on the break (0.6% of all breaks).

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the 2019 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship:
[This relates only to the 38 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just twice -- once by Dennis Hatch (including a 9-ball) and once by Filler (he won the game after pushing out).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.3 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.6.

• 52% (322 of 618) of the games ended in one inning – 34% (210) won by the breaker (B&R) and 18% (112) won by the non-breaker. Eight percent (52 of 618) of the games lasted more than 3 innings. [Note: Most of 1 game was not shown on the stream, hence the use of 618 games in total here rather than 619.]

• 40% (248 of 619) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 43% (210 of 484)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 76% (16 of 21)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 19% (22 of 114)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 62% of the time (382 of 614)
- Won the game in a later inning 13% of the time (77 of 614)
- Lost the game 25% of the time (155 of 614)
[Note -- total games used here are 614 rather than 618 to eliminate the 4 games in which no ball was made after the break.]

• The loser won an average of 5.1 games in the 37 races to 11 (excludes the final match). Four matches went to hill/hill; two matches finished with no games won by the loser.

• The average elapsed time for the 37 races to 11 was 97 minutes, averaging 6.0 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and commercial breaks. Commercial breaks were significant in the final 15 matches, generally occurring after every 3 games in a match, and lasting about 3 minutes each.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at 156 minutes, was Chang d. Liu 11-10. The match that was highest in average minutes per game, at 7.6, was Teutscher d. Woodward 11-5.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at 50 minutes, was Shaw d. Deuel 11-1. Two matches tied for lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.2 -- the Shaw/Deuel match and Van Boening d. Hatch 11-3.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 29.5 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.7 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.4 games.

• About 36% of the games involved one or more safeties.

 

[pt109]

78% break success for the field seems terrific.

I'm interested in the difference between the hand-racked results vs the templates.

thanx, AtLarge

 

[AtLarge]

78% break success for the field seems terrific.

I'm interested in the difference between the hand-racked results vs the templates.

thanx, AtLarge

At least on the following measures, and perhaps unexpectedly -- essentially no difference:

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

Template -- 78% (279 of 358)
Triangle -- 79% (205 of 261)​

Breaker won the game:

Template -- 65% (234 of 358)
Triangle -- 65% (169 of 261)​

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

Template -- 34% (121 of 358)
Triangle -- 34% (89 of 261)​

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

Template -- 43% (121 of 279)
Triangle -- 43% (89 of 205)​

 

[Z-Nole]

How do you track all of this?

 

[AtLarge]

How do you track all of this?

Without much sleep or exercise.

[paper, pencil, and paying close attention]

 

[pt109]

At least on the following measures, and perhaps unexpectedly -- essentially no difference:

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

• Template -- 78% (279 of 358)
  Triangle -- 79% (205 of 261)

Breaker won the game:

• Template -- 65% (234 of 358)
  Triangle -- 65% (169 of 261)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

• Template -- 34% (121 of 358)
  Triangle -- 34% (89 of 261)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

• Template -- 43% (121 of 279)
  Triangle -- 43% (89 of 205)

Thanx, sir.....wow...

 

[AtLarge]

Here's a comparison of stats from this year's US Open with those from the last 3 (2015, 2016, and 2017) plus 2018's International 9-Ball Open. As ever, the stats are for the streamed matches I watched, not for all of the events' matches.

The big change in this year's event was no illegal-break rule and no breaking box.

Breaks on which at least one ball was pocketed (includes all wet breaks even if illegal or fouled)

2019 -- 81% (501 of 619)
2018 -- 77% (537 of 699)
2017 -- 71% (475 of 669)
2016 -- 73% (306 of 422)
2015 -- 68% (388 of 572)​

Illegal breaks (whether wet, dry, or fouled)

2019 -- does not apply
2018 -- 14% (99 of 699)
2017 -- 10% (66 of 669)
2016 -- 20% (86 of 422)
2015 -- 4% (23 of 572)​

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):

2019 -- 78% (484 of 619)
2018 -- 62% (435 of 699)
2017 -- 62% (417 of 669)
2016 -- 57% (240 of 422)
2015 -- 62% (353 of 572)​

Breaker won game -- on all breaks:

2019 -- 65% (403 of 619)
2018 -- 52% (363 of 699)
2017 -- 57% (380 of 669)
2016 -- 54% (227 of 422)
2015 -- 53% (302 of 572)​

Breaker won game -- on legal breaks:

2019 -- 65% (403 of 619)
2018 -- 54% (326 of 600)
2017 -- 57% (345 of 603)
2016 -- 57% (191 of 336)
2015 -- 54% (294 of 549)​

Breaker won game -- on illegal breaks:

2019 -- does not apply
2018 -- 37% (37 of 99)
2017 -- 53% (35 of 66)
2016 -- 42% (36 of 86)
2015 -- 35% (8 of 23)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:

2019 -- 34% (210 of 619)
2018 -- 22% (154 of 699)
2017 -- 26% (176 of 669)
2016 -- 23% (96 of 422)
2015 -- 23% (131 of 572)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks:

2019 -- 43% (210 of 484)
2018 -- 35% (154 of 435)
2017 -- 42% (176 of 417)
2016 -- 40% (96 of 240)
2015 -- 37% (131 of 353)​

Average number of balls made on the break:

2019 -- 1.3 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks
2018 -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks
2017 -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks
2016 -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks
2015 -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks​

Games ending in one inning:

2019 -- 52% (322 of 618)
2018 -- 48% (337 of 699)
2017 -- 49% (329 of 669)
2016 -- 49% (205 of 422)
2015 -- 45% (258 of 572)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:

2019 -- 40% (248 of 619)
2018 -- 37% (257 of 699)
2017 -- 40% (265 of 669)
2016 -- 40% (170 of 422)
2015 -- 36% (204 of 572)​

Games won by player who made the first ball after the break:

2019 -- 75% (459 of 614)
2018 -- 78% (540 of 691)
2017 -- 77% (508 of 658)
2016 -- 76% (319 of 420)
2015 -- 75% (427 of 570)​

Average minutes per game (includes time for racking and timeouts):

2019 -- 6.0
2018 -- 6.2
2017 -- 6.0
2016 -- 6.0
2015 -- 6.1​

 

[pwd72s]

Many thanks for doing and posting all this work. I did find the results between template & triangle racks very interesting.

 

[AtLarge]

Many thanks for doing and posting all this work. I did find the results between template & triangle racks very interesting.

Me, too. I expected the template to produce higher success rates than the triangle. But maybe the reason is that the triangle was used on just the last 15 matches, which probably involved many of the better breakers. So their better breaking skills made up for the inherent difference between template and triangle.

 

[AtLarge]

The 38 streamed matches involved 47 different players. 30 of them appeared in streamed matches just once, 10 appeared twice, 3 appeared three times, 3 four times (Filler, Wu, and Shaw), and 1 five times (Van Boening). Here are some stats for each of the 4 players who appeared at least four times (they finished 1st, 2nd, 9th/16th, and 9th/16th in the event).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

Filler -- 84% (38 of 45)
Wu -- 88% (38 of 43)
Shaw -- 81% (29 of 36)
Van Boening -- 90% (45 of 50)
4-player total -- 86% (150 of 174)
Other 43 players -- 75% (334 of 445)
All 47 players -- 78% (484 of 619)​

Breaker won the game:

Filler -- 73% (33 of 45)
Wu -- 79% (34 of 43)
Shaw -- 78% (28 of 36)
Van Boening -- 86% (43 of 50)
4-player total -- 79% (138 of 174)
Other 43 players -- 60% (265 of 445)
All 47 players -- 65% (403 of 619)​

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

Filler -- 36% (16 of 45)
Wu -- 47% (20 of 43)
Shaw -- 53% (19 of 36)
Van Boening -- 46% (23 of 50)
4-player total -- 45% (78 of 174)
Other 43 players -- 30% (132 of 445)
All 47 players -- 34% (210 of 619)​

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

Filler -- 42% (16 of 38)
Wu -- 53% (20 of 38)
Shaw -- 66% (19 of 29)
Van Boening -- 51% (23 of 45)
4-player total -- 52% (78 of 150)
Other 43 players -- 40% (132 of 334)
All 47 players -- 43% (210 of 484)​

 

[skogstokig]

Without much sleep or exercise.

[paper, pencil, and paying close attention]

you don't use excel?

 

[AtLarge]

you don't use excel?

No, not for this.

 

[gxman]

Wu an Shane BNR rate is off the charts.

47% and 46%.

 

[AtLarge]

Of the 38 streamed matches ,,,

• The winner of the lag won 18 (47%)

• The winner of the first game won 17 (45%)

 

[gxman]

At Large, would you have Shaw's BNR %(of all breaks).

I think I saw him on the TV table 4 matches

 

[AtLarge]

At Large, would you have Shaw's BNR %(of all breaks).

I think I saw him on the TV table 4 matches

Thank you for spotting that; you are correct that he appeared on stream 4 times. So I have edited post #11 to include his stats.

 

[AtLarge]

Regarding pushes:

Conventional wisdom is that the player who pushes out is at a disadvantage, because it is the other player who then has the choice on whether to shoot.

Out of 618 games in the 38 streamed matches I watched for the 2019 U.S. Open Championship, 73 games (12%) involved a push out, and the results were as follows:

• Breaker pushed and won the game -- 34
• Breaker pushed and lost the game -- 23
• Non-breaker pushed and won the game -- 7
• Non-breaker pushed and lost the game -- 9

78% (57 of 73) of the pushes were by the breaker and 22% by the non-breaker, the same split as for successful vs. unsuccessful breaks.

Overall, the person who pushed won 41 of the 73 games (56%) and lost 32 (44%). Breakers who pushed won nearly 50% more games than they lost, while non-breakers lost a couple more games than they won.

Of the 73 pushes, 36 were returned (passed back to the pusher to shoot), and the pusher won 19 of those 36 games (53%). The pusher won 59% (22 of 37) of the games that were not passed back to him.

As usual for stats on pushes, the numbers are small, so generalizations should not be made from them.