Break Stats -- 2021 FargoRate Ohio Open (US Pro Billiard Series) 10-Ball, October 2021

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2021 FargoRate Ohio Open 10-Ball event played October 13-16 at the Roberts Center in Wilmington, Ohio with free streaming on Billiard TV and on YouTube. This is one of the 4 events comprising this year's CSI/Predator US Pro Billiard Series. The primary commentators were Jeremy Jones and George Teyechea. Mario He won the event, defeating Roberto Gomez in the final match.

This was a 60-player event with double-elimination down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side). A random draw then matched one player from each side against each other, with single-elimination play from that point to the conclusion. Each match was two races to 4. If the same player won both races, he won the match. If the two races to 4 were split, a shootout determined the winner. The stats are for all 20 streamed matches, of which 9 ended with a shootout. These 20 matches represented 18.0% of the total of 111 matches played in the event.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Predator 9-foot table;​
- Predator Arcadia cloth (blue);​
- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​
- Predator Arena lights;​
- referee racks using a Predator triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners, as is a 10-ball in any pocket on a legal break;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (did not occur);​
- 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The 20 matches (226 games) tracked were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played.

Wed. October 13, 2021
1. Evan Lunda defeated Shane Wolford 4-2, 3-4, shootout​
2. Tyler Styer d. Payne McBride 4-0, 1-4, shootout​
3. Mieszko Fortunski d. Ruslan Chinahov 4-0, 4-2​
4. Sharik Sayed d. Ernesto Dominguez 4-1, 4-1​
5. Roberto Gomez d. Jeremy Seaman 4-1, 0-4, shootout​

Thurs. Oct. 14
6. Thorsten Hohmann d. James Davee 4-1, 4-1​
7. Tony Robles d. Denis Grabe 4-2, 4-2​
8. Mika Immonen d. Danny Olson 4-1, 3-4, shootout​
9. Wiktor Zielinski d. Mohammed Ali Berjaoui 4-1, 4-2​
10. Aloysius Yapp d. Dominguez 4-1, 4-2​

Fri. Oct. 15
11. Naoyuki Oi d. Mario He 4-3, 4-2​
12. Hohmann d. Fortunsi 4-2, 4-2​
13. Kang Lee d. Justin Martin 4-3, 1-4, shootout​
14. Alex Kazakis d. Lunda 1-4, 4-0, shootout​
15. Jeffrey De Luna d. Zielinski 2-4, 4-2, shootout​

Sat. Oct. 16
16. Chinahov d. Hohmann 3-4, 4-1, shootout​
17. DeLuca d. Seaman 4-1, 3-4, shootout​
18. Gomez d. De Luna 4-3, 4-1 (Semifinal)​
19. He d. Chinahov 4-3, 4-3 (Semifinal)​
20. He d. Gomez 4-3, 4-0 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 67% (87 of 130) for match winners, 55% (53 of 96) for match losers, and 62% (140 of 226) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 63% (82 of 130) for match winners, 39% (37 of 96) for match losers, and 53% (119 of 226) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 22% (28 of 130) for match winners, 15% (14 of 96) for match losers, and 19% (42 of 226) in total​
Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 32% (28 of 87) for match winners, 26% (14 of 53) for match losers, and 30% (42 of 140) in total​

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 226 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 81 (36% of the 226 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 59 (26%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 7 (3%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 34 (15%)​
Breaker lost the game: 41 (18%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 53% (119 of 226) of all games,​
He won 58% (81 of 140) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 44% (38 of 86) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 42 break-and-run games represented 19% of all 226 games, 35% of the 119 games won by the breaker, and 30% of the 140 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 42 break-and-run games consisted of 2 3-packs (1 each by De Luna and He), 3 2-packs, and 30 singles. De Luna's 3-pack required 27 strikes of the cue ball; He's 3-pack required 4.

10-Balls on the break -- Seven 10-balls were made on the break (3.1% of all 226 breaks).
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2021 FargoRate Ohio Open 10-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 20 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once -- by Grabe, who lost that game.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5.

• 38% (87 of 226) of the games ended in one inning – 19% (42) won by the breaker (B&R) and 20% (45) won by the non-breaker. Eighteen percent (41 of 226) of the games lasted more than 3 innings. The game with the most innings ended on the non-breaker's 9th visit to the table.

• 27% (60 of 226) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 30% (42 of 140)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 45% (5 of 11)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 17% (13 of 75)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 50% of the time (109 of 219)​
- Won the game in a later inning 17% of the time (37 of 219)​
- Lost the game 33% of the time (73 of 219)​
[Note -- total games used here are 219 rather than 226 to eliminate the 7 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 1.7 games in the 40 races to 4 in the 20 matches. Five of those 40 races ended at a score of 4-0, 14 at 4-1, 11 at 4-2, and 10 at 4-3.

• Nine of the 20 matches had a shootout, with 3 of the 9 going to sudden death. In all 9 shootouts, the winner of the match's lag chose to shoot first in the shootout, and he lost 7 of the 9 shootouts.

• The average elapsed time for the two races to 4 in each match was about 71 minutes, or 6.3 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made for the second race to 4 (i.e., shootouts not included), so it includes time for racking and commercial breaks. These breaks, about two minutes each, often occurred after every two games and between races to 4.

• The longest match in elapsed time (excluding shootouts), at 94 minutes, was Oi d. He. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 8.1, was Styer d. McBride.

• The match shortest in elapsed time, at 49 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.5, was the Finals (He d. Gomez).

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 20.5 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.2 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.4 games.

• About 46% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
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