Break Stats -- 2022 Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, January 2022

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Here are some break statistics from the 2022 Derby City Classic's Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge played January 21-24, 2022 at the Caesars Southern Indiana Hotel & Casino in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event won by Joshua Filler. The primary commentators were Mark Wilson and Jeremy Jones.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 10-foot table with standard pro-cut pockets (4½" corners) and Simonis 860 or 860 HR cloth;​
- Aramith Tournament balls with Diamond cue balls (without spots on Day 1, with blue spots on Days 2-4);​
- Accu-Rack Pro10 racking template;​
- rack your own (1-ball on the spot, 2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners) and alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- jump cues not allowed and jumping with break cues not allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break);​
- 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The event's 15 matches (265 games), all streamed from the same table, were as follows (shown in the order in which they were played). The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

Fri., Jan. 21 (Round 1)
Fedor Gorst (.949 -- best of the event) d. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz (.853) 11-6​
Darren Appleton (.877) d. Roland Garcia (.814) 11-7​
Jayson Shaw (.946) d. Omar Al-Shaheen (.843) 11-4​
Shane Van Boening (.895) d. Lee Vann Corteza (.771) 11-5​

Sat., Jan. 22 (Round 1, continued)
Roberto Gomez (.869) d. John Morra (.778) 11-7​
Joshua Filler (.943) d. Alex Kazakis (.909) 11-6​
Mika Immonen (.865) d. Max Eberle (.891) 11-9​
David Alcaide (.924) d. Alex Pagulayan (.891) 11-9​

Sun., Jan. 23 (Round 2)
Gorst (.945) d. Appleton (.789) 11-4​
Shaw (.885) d. Van Boening (.890) 11-8​
Filler (.853) d. Gomez (.750) 11-3​
Immonen (.832) d. Alcaide (.810) 11-7​

Mon., Jan. 24 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)
Gorst (.937) d. Shaw (.869) 11-8​
Filler (.932) d. Immonen (.860) 11-8​
Filler (.889) d. Gorst (.906) 11-9​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 75% (101 of 135) for match winners, 65% (85 of 130) for match losers, and 70% (186 of 265) in total​

Breaker won the game -- 66% (89 of 135) for match winners, 42% (54 of 130) for match losers, and 54% (143 of 265) in total​

Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 33% (44 of 135) for match winners, 22% (29 of 130) for match losers, and 28% (73 of 265) in total​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 44% (44 of 101) for match winners, 34% (29 of 85) for match losers, and 39% (73 of 186) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 265 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 114 (43% of the 265 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 72 (27%)​

Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 1 (0%)​
Breaker lost the game: 8 (3%)​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 28 (11%)​
Breaker lost the game: 42 (16%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 54% (143 of 265) of all games,
He won 61% (114 of 186) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 37% (29 of 79) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 73 break-and-run games represented 28% of all 265 games, 51% of the 143 games won by the breaker, and 39% of the 186 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 73 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 3-pack (by Shaw), 14 alternate-break 2-packs, and 42 singles.

10-balls on the break -- No 10-balls were made on the break.
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2022 DCC Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge:

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 4 times -- once by Gomez (a game loss), once by Gorst (a B&R), and twice by Filler (both B&Rs).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5 and the distribution was 65% 1 ball, 27% 2 balls, 6% 3 balls, and 2% 4 balls.

• 51% (135 of 265) of the games ended in one inning – 28% (73) won by the breaker (B&R) and 23% (62) won by the non-breaker. 11% (29 of 265) of the games lasted 4 or more innings. The longest game ended on the non-breaker's 8th visit to the table.

• 39% (104 of 265) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 39% (73 of 186)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 89% (8 of 9)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 33% (23 of 70)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 56% of the time (149 of 265)​
- Won the game in a later inning 14% of the time (37 of 265)​
- Lost the game 30% of the time (79 of 265)​

• The match loser won an average of 6.7 games in these races to 11. The closest matches were three that ended at 11-9; the fewest games won in a match was 3, once.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at about 148 minutes, was Immonen d. Eberle 11-9. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 7.8, was Gorst d. Sanchez-Ruiz 11-6. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 61 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.3, was Filler d. Gomez 11-3.

• The average elapsed time for these 15 races to 11 was 108 minutes, averaging 6.1 minutes per game.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 29.4 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.6 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.9 games.

• About 38% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
Mean of Accu-Stats match TPAs:

■ for the 15 match winners
2022 -- .903​
2020 -- .891​
2019 -- .902​
2018 -- .870​
2017 -- .869​
2016 -- .878​

■ for the 15 match losers
2022 -- .842​
2020 -- .817​
2019 -- .838​
2018 -- .833​
2017 -- .795​
2016 -- .822​

■ Total (all 30 TPAs)
2022 -- .872​
2020 -- .854​
2019 -- .870​
2018 -- .852​
2017 -- .832​
2016 -- .850​

[These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPAs calculated for each of these 3 groups.]
 
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TPAs in the 900s

With 15 matches each year in this event, there are 30 Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPAs). For the last 8 events (2014-2022) 44 of the 240 TPAs (18%) have been in the 900s:

2014 -- 1 [SVB]

2015 -- 3 [Orcollo and SVB(2)]

2016 -- 4 [ Bustamante, SVB, Shaw (2)]

2017 -- 5 [Hohmann, Kazakis, Shaw (3)]

2018 -- 4 [ Gomez, Gorst, Immonen (2)]

2019 -- 9 [Gorst, Orcollo, Shaw, SVB, Filler (2), Chang (3)]

2020 -- 9 [Corteza, Filler (2), Pagulayan (2), Shaw (2), Van Boening (2)]

2022 -- 9 [Alcaide, Kazakis, Shaw, Filler (2), Gorst (4)]
 
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TPAs in a match totaling 1.800 or higher

For all 120 of the Bigfoot matches for 2014 through 2022, only 11 times (9%) has the total of the 2 players' TPAs been 1.800 or higher:

2018
Gomez d. Immonen 11-10, .893 + .931 = 1.824

2019
Chang d. Van Boening 11-9, .933 + .876 = 1.809
Filler d. Orcollo 11-8, .956 + .915 = 1.871 (highest)
Chang d. Filler 11-9, .922 + .878 = 1.800

2020
Shaw d. Woodward 11-3, .939 + .870 = 1.809
Pagulayan d. Van Boening 11-9, .937 + .910 = 1.847
Corteza d. Filler 11-9, .915 + .913 = 1.828

2022
Gorst d. Sanchez-Ruiz 11-6, .949 + .853 = 1.802
Filler d. Kazakis 11-6, .943 + .909 = 1.852
Alcaide d. Pagulayan 11-9, .924 + .891 = 1.815
Gorst d. Shaw 11-8, .937 + .869 = 1.806

And in only 4 of those 11 matches did both players shoot in the 900s.
 
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Even though the numbers are small, here are the break-and-run results for each player.

First-Round Losers (1 match each)
Sanchez-Ruiz -- 0 B&Rs out of 8 breaks = 0%​
Garcia -- 2 of 9 = 22%​
Al-Shaheen -- 1 of 7 = 14%​
Corteza -- 2 of 8 = 25%​
Morra -- 1 of 9 = 11%​
Kazakis -- 2 of 8 = 25%​
Eberle -- 2 of 10 = 20%​
Pagulyan -- 3 of 10 = 30%​
Total -- 13 of 69 = 19%​

Second-Round Losers (2 matches each)
Appleton -- 3 of 17 = 18%​
Van Boening -- 4 of 17 = 24%​
Gomez -- 3 of 16 = 19%​
Alcaide -- 3 of 19 = 16%​
Total -- 13 of 69 = 19%​

Third-Round Losers (3 matches each)
Shaw -- 12 of 27 = 44%​
Immonen -- 3 of 28 = 11%​
Total -- 15 of 55 = 27%​

Finalists (4 matches each)
Gorst -- 15 of 36 = 42%​
Filler -- 17 of 36 = 47%​
Total -- 32 of 72 = 44%​

Total -- 73 of 265 = 28%

As mentioned in post #1, the 73 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 3-pack (by Shaw), 14 alternate-break 2-packs, and 42 singles.
 
Excellent stats. Thank you!

Gorst's average TPA over 4 matches was 0.934. Just incredible!
Yes. Shaw and Chang had posted .900+ for 3 out of 4 matches in one event, but this was the first time anyone had been at that level for 4 out of 4 matches.
 
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Is this normal?( at DCC) As I was looking at BCA rules & this is just wrong
Yes, this event is played like Texas Express 9-Ball -- no call shots. There have now been 9 Bigfoot 10-Ball events at the DCC. At the first one, in 2013, 10-balls made on the break counted as wins; since then, they have been spotted.
 
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