Break Stats -- 2022 Seybert's Michigan Open (US Pro Billiard Series) 10-Ball, September 2022

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2022 Seybert's Michigan Open 10-Ball event played September 21-24 at the Kellogg Arena in Battle Creek, Michigan. Streaming was free on Billiard TV and on YouTube. This was the fourth of the 6 events planned for this year's CSI/Predator US Pro Billiard Series. The main commentators were Mark White, Tim De Ruyter, and Tony Robles. Aloysius Yapp won the event, defeating Robbie Capito in the final match, thereby successfully defending the title he won in this event last year.

This was a 74-player event with double-elimination down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side). A random draw then matched one player from each side against each other, with single-elimination play from that point to the conclusion. Each match was two races to 4. If the same player won both races, he won the match. If the two races to 4 were split, a shootout determined the winner. The stats are for all 13 matches streamed on the feature table (excluding all matches from the women's event), of which 8 ended with a shootout. These 13 matches represented 9.4% of the total of 139 matches played in the open event.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:

- Predator Apex 9-foot table (4¼" corner pockets);​

- Predator Arcadia cloth (blue);​

- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​

- Predator Arena lights;​

- referee racks using a Predator Aerorack triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​

- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​

- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​

- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners;​

- a 10-ball made in any pocket on a break is spotted (not a game win);​

- jump cues allowed;​

- foul on all balls;​

- 3-foul rule in effect (occurred once);​

- 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break and after a push out) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​

- lag for opening break.​

The 13 streamed matches (150 games) were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. Matches 1 through 10 were in the double-elimination stage, and matches 11-13 in the single-elimination stage. The stats are for 146 games instead of 150, because the YouTube stream I watched was down for a while during match #10.

Wed. September 21, 2022

1. Riku Romppanen defeated Robert Frost 3-4, 4-2, shootout​

2. Vitaliy Patsura d. Tyler Styer 4-3, 4-3​

3. Justin Martin d. Blaire Marcus 4-2, 1-4, shootout​

4. Moritz Newhausen d. Thorsten Hohmann 1-4, 4-3, shootout​

Thurs. Sept. 22

5. Jayson Shaw d. John Morra 4-0, 4-1​

6. Hohmann d. Mason Koch 4-0, 2-4, shootout​

7. Chang Jung-Lin d. Sharik Sayed 4-1, 2-4, shootout​

8. Mika Immonen d. Naoyuki Oi 4-0, 4-3​

Fri. Sept. 23

9. Carlo Biado d. Michael Schneider 4-2, 4-0​

10. Alex Pagulayan d. Roland Garcia 3-4, 4-2, shootout​

11. Aloysius Yapp d. Morra 4-1, 3-4, shootout (Last 16)​

Sat. Sept. 24

12. Yapp d. Chang J-L 4-2, 3-4, shootout (Semifinal)​

13. Yapp d. Robbie Capito 4-2, 4-1 (Final)​

Overall results

■ Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 59% (49 of 83) for match winners, 56% (35 of 63) for match losers, and 58% (84 of 146) in total​

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■ Breaker won the game -- 66% (55 of 83) for match winners, 46% (29 of 63) for match losers, and 58% (84 of 146) in total​

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■ Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 27% (22 of 83) for match winners, 16% (10 of 63) for match losers, and 22% (32 of 146) in total​

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■ Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 45% (22 of 49) for match winners, 29% (10 of 35) for match losers, and 38% (32 of 84) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 146 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​

Breaker won the game: 53 (36% of the 146 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 31 (21%)​

​

Breaker fouled on the break:​

Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)​

Breaker lost the game: 4 (3%)​

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Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​

Breaker won the game: 29 (20%)​

Breaker lost the game: 27 (18%)​

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Therefore, whereas the breaker won 58% (84 0f 146) of all games,​

He won 63% (53 of 84) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​

He won 50% (31 of 62) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 32 break-and-run games represented 22% of all 146 games, 38% of the 84 games won by the breaker, and 38% of the 84 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 32 break-and-run games consisted of 4 3-packs (2 by Immonen in the same match, 1 by Hohmann, and 1 by Shaw), 2 2-packs, and 16 singles.

10-Balls on the break -- None (they would have been spotted).

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the 2022 Michigan Open 10-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 13 streamed matches I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Immonen. He won the game by B&R.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.8 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4.

• Number of innings

- 34% (49 of 146) of the games ended in one inning -- 32 games on the breaker's first inning (B&R games) and 17 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​

- 44% (64 of 146) of the games ended on the second or third inning.​

- 23% (33 of 146) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's third visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the non-breaker's 7th visit.​

• 29% (42 of 146) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 38% (32 of 84)​

- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 67% (4 of 6)​

- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 11% (6 of 56)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

- Won the game in that same inning 47% of the time (68 of 145)​

- Won the game in a later inning 26% of the time (38 of 145)​

- Lost the game 27% of the time (39 of 145)​

[Note -- total games used here are 145 rather than 146 to eliminate a game that ended on 3 consecutive fouls with no balls pocketed after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 1.8 games in the 26 races to 4 in the 13 matches. Four of those 26 races ended at a score of 4-0, 6 at 4-1, 8 at 4-2, and 8 at 4-3.

• Eight of the 13 matches had a shootout, with 2 of the 8 going to sudden death. In all 8 shootouts, the winner of the match's lag chose to shoot first in the shootout, and he won 6 of those 8 shootouts.

• The average elapsed time for the two races to 4 in each match was about 82 minutes, or 7.1 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made for the second race to 4 (i.e., shootouts not included), so it includes time for racking and commercial breaks. These breaks, about two minutes each, often occurred after every two or three games and between races to 4.

• The average elapsed time for the 8 shootouts (excluding the commercial breaks that preceded some of them) was about 4.8 minutes, or about 43 seconds per shot for the 54 shots taken in those shootouts.

• The match that was both longest in elapsed time (excluding shootouts), at 130 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 9.3 was Patsura d. Styer.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 49 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.5, was Immonen d. Oi.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 24.3 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.1 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.3 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 45% of all games and 58% of games that were not B&Rs.