Break Stats -- 2023 JFlowers Scottish Open (9-Ball), May 2023

AtLarge

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2023 JFlowers Scottish Open played May 26-28, 2023 at McGoldricks Pool & Sports Bar in Glasgow, Scotland, with free streaming on YouTube. This was a 64-player 9-Ball event, with double elimination down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side) and then single-elimination to the end. Jayson Shaw won the tournament, defeating Wiktor Zielinski in the final match.

Several players commentated on at least one match, with Graham Hickman and Adam Smith doing the most. The referees were Julian Roper and Alan Reynolds (sp.?),

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
• Rasson 9-foot table with 4 ¼" corner pockets;​
• new Simonis 860 Shark Grey cloth;​
• Aramith Tournament Black balls with a black-spots cue ball;​
• Magic Ball Rack racking template;​
• referee racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot (2-ball not necessarily in back location);​
• winner breaks from behind the head string in a box approximately 8" to either side of the long string;​
• no illegal-break rule, but referees enforce a forceful-break requirement;​
• no shot clock;​
• foul on all balls;​
• 3-foul rule in effect;​
• jump cues allowed;​
• all slop counts; and​
• lag for the break in each match.​

These stats are for all 18 matches (275 games) that were played on the feature streaming table (Table 11) with commentary. This was 15.4% of the total of 117 matches played in the event (119 scheduled less 2 forfeits). The races were to 10 on the winners' side and 8 on the losers' side in the double-elimination stage, then to 10 in the single-elimination stage. The 18 matches are listed here in the order in which they were played.

Friday, May 26
1. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz defeated Sullivan Clark 10-4​
2. Imran Majid d. Albin Ouschan 10-8​
3. Denis Grabe d. Chris Melling 10-5​
4. Ko Pin Yi d. Kelly Fisher 10-7​
5. Mario He d. Moritz Neuhausen 10-9​
6. Joshua Filler d. Darren Appleton 10-0​

Saturday, May 27
7. David Alcaide d. Davy Piergiovanni 10-8​
8. Wiktor Zielinski d. Ko Ping Han 10-1​
9. Elliott Sanderson d. Naoyuki Oi 10-9​
10. Liu Ri Teng d. Sanjin Pehlivanovic 10-6​
11. Jon McAllister d. Gary Wilson 8-6​
12. Jayson Shaw d. Sanderson 10-3​

Sunday, May 28
13. Filler d. Jonas Souto 8-3​
14. Neuhausen d. Ko PY 10-3 (Last 16)​
15. He d. Filler 10-7 (Last 16)​
16. Shaw d. He 10-6 (Quarterfinal)​
17. Zielinski d. Grabe 10-5 (Semifinal)​
18. Shaw d. Zielinski 10-9 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 78% (132 of 169)​
Match losers -- 71% (75 of 106)​
Total -- 75% (207 of 275)

Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 69% (117 of 169)​
Match losers -- 44% (47 of 106)​
Total -- 60% (164 of 275)

Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 30% (51 of 169)​
Match losers -- 21% (22 of 106)​
Total -- 27% (73 of 275)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 39% (51 of 132)​
Match losers -- 29% (22 of 75)​
Total -- 35% (73 of 207)

Here's a breakdown of the 275 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 138 (50% of the 275 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 69 (25%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 18 (7%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 23 (8%)​
Breaker lost the game: 24 (9%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 60% (164 of 275) of all games,​
He won 67% (138 of 207) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 38% (26 of 68) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 73 break-and-run games represented 27% of all 275 games, 45% of the 164 games won by the breaker, and 35% of the 207 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 73 break-and-run games consisted of 2 4-packs (one each by Filler and Shaw), 1 3-pack (Ko PY), 9 two-packs, and 44 singles.

9-Balls on the break -- The 73 break-and-run games included 7 9-balls on the break (2.5% of all breaks).
 
Miscellany from the data for the 2023 JFlowers Scottish Open (9-Ball):

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Zielinski. He won the game, but not by B&R.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.2 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4 and the distribution was 63% 1 ball, 31% 2 balls, and 6% 3 or 4 balls.

• Number of innings:
47% (128 of 275) of the games ended in one inning – 73 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 55 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
24% (67 of 275) of the games ended in the second inning.​
29% (80 of 275) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most visits to the table ended on the breaker's 10th visit.​

• 35% (95 of 275) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 35% (73 of 207)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 76% (16 of 21)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 13% (6 of 47)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 58% of the time (156 of 267)​
- Won the game in a later inning 16% of the time (43 of 267)​
- Lost the game 25% of the time (68 of 267)​
[Note -- total games used here are 267 rather than 275 to eliminate the games in which no ball was made after the break -- 7 games where the 9-ball was made on the break and 1 game that was lost on 3 consecutive fouls before any ball was pocketed.]​

• The loser won an average of 5.6 games in the 16 races to 10. Three of the matches went to hill/hill. The most lopsided match was one at 10-0.

• The average elapsed time per match for the 16 races to 10 was 97 minutes. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was both longest in elapsed time, at 155 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.2, was He d. Neuhausen 10-9. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.7, was Filler d. Appleton 10-0. The average minutes per game for all 275 games was 6.3.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 13.1 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.7 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.0 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 46% of all games and in 63% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
That’s more like it…78% on the breaks….and a few 9-balls.
thanx, AtLarge
 
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