Break Stats -- 2023 Predator World 10-Ball Championship, Feb./March 2023

AtLarge

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2023 Predator World 10-Ball Championship played February 28 - March 4, 2023 at the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada with free streaming on Billiard TV and on YouTube. The primary commentators were Jim Wych, George Teyechea, Mark White, and Kristina Tkach. Eklent Kaçi won the event, defeating Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz in the final match.

This was an invitational 128-player event with double-elimination down to 32 players (16 on the winners' side and 16 on the one-loss side). The 16 players (out of the final 32) with the highest WPA rankings were then seeded into the final bracket and the positions of the other 16 were drawn randomly. The matches were races to 8 in the double-elimination portion and races to 10 thereafter. The stats are for all 19 matches streamed on Arena Table 1 with commentary. These 19 matches represented 8.0% of the total of 237 matches played in the event (239 planned less 2 forfeits).

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Predator Apex 9-foot table (4¼" corner pockets);​
- Predator Arcadia Reserve Tournament Blue cloth;​
- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​
- Predator Arena lights;​
- referee racks using a Predator Aerorack triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners;​
- a 10-ball made in any pocket on a break is spotted (not a game win);​
- jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (occurred twice);​
- 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break and after a push out) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The 19 matches (254 games) tracked were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played.

Tues. February 28, 2023
1. Lee Vann Corteza defeated Roberto Gomez 8-7​
2. Talal Albooshi d. David Alcaide 8-7​
3. Alex Pagulayan d. Wiktor Zielinski 8-1​
4. Ko Ping Chung d. Skyler Woodward 8-5​

Wed. March 1
5. Billy Thorpe d. Karl Gnadeberg 8-4​
6. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz d. Abdullah Alshammari 8-3​
7. Joshua Filler d. Shane Wolford 8-0​
8. Ko Pin Yi d. Luong Duc Thien 8-0​
9. Zielinski d. Wojciech Szewczyk 8-6​

Thurs. March 2
10. Fedor Gorst d. Oscar Dominguez 8-4​
11. Woodward d. Alex Kazakis 8-4​
12. Sanchez-Ruiz d. Jesus Atencio 8-2​

Fri. March 3
13. Shane Van Boening d. Marc Bijsterbosch 10-3 (Round of 32)​
14. Sanchez-Ruiz d. Chang Jung-Lin 10-8 (Round of 16)​
15. Gorst d. Denis Grabe 10-3 (Quarterfinal)​
16. Eklent Kaçi d. Van Boening 10-7 (Quarterfinal)​

Sat. March 4
17. Sanchez-Ruiz d. Gorst 10-9 (Semifinal)​
18. Kaçi d. Filler 10-8 (Semifinal)​
19. Kaçi d. Sanchez-Ruiz 10-7 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 58% (92 of 158)​
Match losers -- 51% (49 of 96)​
Total -- 56% (141 of 254)

Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 64% (101 of 158)​
Match losers -- 32% (31 of 96)​
Total -- 52% (132 of 254)

Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 16% (25 of 158)​
Match losers -- 7% (7 of 96)​
Total -- 13% (32 of 254)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 27% (25 of 92)​
Match losers -- 14% (7 of 49)​
Total -- 23% (32 of 141)

Here's a breakdown of the 254 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 82 (32% of the 254 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 59 (23%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 9 (4%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 46 (18%)​
Breaker lost the game: 54 (21%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 52% (132 of 254) of all games,​
He won 58% (82 of 141) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 44% (50 of 113) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 32 break-and-run games represented 13% of all 254 games, 24% of the 132 games won by the breaker, and 23% of the 141 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 32 break-and-run games consisted of 7 2-packs (2 by Sanchez-Ruiz, 2 by Gorst, and 1 each by Kaçi, Pagulayan, and Thorpe), and 18 singles. No one in these 19 matches broke and ran more than 2 games in a row.

One match contained 5 B&Rs (the Finals), 1 match had 4, 1 match had 3, 8 matches had 2, 4 matches had 1, and 4 matches had no B&Rs.

10-Balls on the break -- Three 10-balls were made on the break (1.2% of all 254 breaks). They were spotted.
 

AtLarge

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Miscellany from the data for the 2023 Predator World 10-Ball Championship:
[This relates only to the 19 streamed matches I tracked, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 3, done just three times -- once each by Thorpe (won the game, but not by B&R), Gorst (lost the game), and Kaçi (lost the game).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.7 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.2.

• Number of innings:
31% (78 of 254) of the games ended in one inning – 32 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 46 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
25% (63 of 254) of the games ended in the second inning.​
44% (113 of 254) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The two games with the most innings ended on the breaker's 10th visit to the table.​

• 22% (57 of 254) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 23% (32 of 141);​
By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 54% (7 of 13); and​
By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 18% (18 of 100).​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
Won the game in that same inning 45% of the time (114 of 253);​
Won the game in a later inning 23% of the time (58 of 253); and​
Lost the game 32% of the time (81 of 253).​
[Note -- total games used here are 253 rather than 254 to eliminate the 1 game (lost on 3 consecutive fouls), in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 3.6 games in the 12 races to 8 and 6.4 games in the 7 races to 10. Three matches went to hill/hill; the most lopsided matches in the two stages were two at 8-0 and two at 10-3.

• The average elapsed time for the 12 races to 8 was about 77 minutes, or 6.6 minutes per game. The average elapsed time for the 7 races to 10 was about 124 minutes, or 7.5 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking, timeouts, and the numerous commercial breaks in these matches.

• The race to 10 that was both longest in elapsed time, at 168 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.8, was Sanchez-Ruiz d. Gorst 10-9. The two races to 8 that were longest in elapsed time, both at about 108 minutes, were Corteza d. Gomez 8-7 and Albooshi d. Alcaide 8-7. The two races to 8 highest in average minutes per game, at 7.6, were Sanchez-Ruiz d. Alshammari 8-3 and Woodward d. Kazakis 8-4.

• The race to 10 that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 78 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 6.0, was Van Boening d. Bijsterbosch 10-3. The race to 8 that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 40 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.0, was Ko PY d. Luong 8-0.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 19.5 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.1 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.5 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 61% of all games and 70% of games that were not B&Rs.
 

AtLarge

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[Bringing a stats post over from another thread.]

Here are the B&R percentages for the matches I tracked from the last 7 US Pro Billiard Series 10-Ball events: 15, 14, 14, 22, 11, 21, 16. As with this week's World 10-Ball event, those events used Predator tables with 4¼" corners and a triangle rack. So this week's result (13%) was not much different from what we have seen previously with this equipment. It's tough!
 

AtLarge

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Let's compare a few stats: this World 10-Ball event vs. last month's World 9-Ball event (10-Ball numbers first):

Successful breaks -- 56%, 78%​
Breaker won game -- 52%, 60%​
B&R on all breaks -- 13%, 32%​
B&R on successful breaks -- 23%, 41%​
One-inning games -- 31%, 56%​
Runouts by non-breaker after dry breaks -- 18%, 28%​
Games with safeties (of all games / of games that were not B&Rs) -- 61%/70%, 38%/56%​
The 10-Ball event was Predator tables with 4¼" corners, Predator cloth, and a triangle rack. The 9-Ball event was Diamond tables with 4¼" corners, Simonis cloth, and a racking template.

Which prefer ye, and why?
 
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Woodshaft

Do what works for YOU!
I would like to see old school triangle racks used with Diamond tables.
The randomness of the triangle rack breaks adds more skill to the games-- safety play, strategy, jumping, kicking, etc. More enjoyable for fans.
Break and runs are boring.
 

AtLarge

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The semifinal match with Sanchez-Ruiz defeating Gorst 10-9 was rather "abnormal."

- number of B&R games -- 0​
- number of runouts by non-breaker after dry breaks -- 0​
- number of 1-inning games -- 1​
- number of games with safeties -- 18 of 19​
- average number of visits to the table per game -- 6.9​
- number of fouls -- 14, including 3 consecutive fouls by Gorst to lose the match​
- length of match -- 2 hrs. 48 minutes, with a shot clock [an average of 8.8 min. per game (about 8.2 excluding timeouts and commercial breaks)]​
 
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Poolmanis

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The semifinal match with Sanchez-Ruiz defeating Gorst 10-9 was rather "abnormal."

- number of B&R games -- 0​
- number of runouts by non-breaker after dry breaks -- 0​
- number of 1-inning games -- 1​
- number of games with safeties -- 18 of 19​
- average number of visits to the table per game -- 6.9​
- number of fouls -- 14, including 3 consecutive fouls by Gorst to lose the match​
- length of match -- 2 hrs. 48 minutes, with a shot clock [an average of 8.8 min. per game (about 8.2 excluding timeouts and commercial breaks)]​
Wow crazy stats..
 

skogstokig

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The semifinal match with Sanchez-Ruiz defeating Gorst 10-9 was rather "abnormal."

- number of B&R games -- 0​
- number of runouts by non-breaker after dry breaks -- 0​
- number of 1-inning games -- 1​
- number of games with safeties -- 18 of 19​
- average number of visits to the table per game -- 6.9​
- number of fouls -- 14, including 3 consecutive fouls by Gorst to lose the match​
- length of match -- 2 hrs. 48 minutes, with a shot clock [an average of 8.8 min. per game (about 8.2 excluding timeouts and commercial breaks)]​

interesting how the hard facts diverge from my memory of the match. definitely thought there was a runout or two.

but how can there be a one inning game if no runout and (obviously) no golden break allowed?
 

AtLarge

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... but how can there be a one inning game if no runout and (obviously) no golden break allowed?
One-inning games also happen when the breaker is successful on the break but does not then run out, and the non-breaker runs out on his first visit.

In this case, Gorst made a ball on the break in Game 14, then scratched playing a safety. Sanchez-Ruiz ran out on his first visit.
 

skogstokig

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One-inning games also happen when the breaker is successful on the break but does not then run out, and the non-breaker runs out on his first visit.

In this case, Gorst made a ball on the break in Game 14, then scratched playing a safety. Sanchez-Ruiz ran out on his first visit.

oh, ok. not a one inning game but two inning game then. but one inning per player
 
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