Break Stats -- 2024 UK Open Pool Championship (9-Ball), May 2024

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2024 UK Open Pool Championship played May 7-12, 2024 at the Telford International Centre in Telford, England. Pay-per-view streaming was provided in the USA on DAZN. This was a 239-player 9-Ball event (with a couple of no-shows), produced by Matchroom Sport, with double elimination down to 64 players (32 on the winners' side and 32 on the one-loss side) and then single-elimination to the end. Robbie Capito won the tournament, defeating Mieszko Fortunski in the final match.

The commentators were Phil Yates, Michael McMullan, Jeremy Jones, and Karl Boyes. The referees on the main TV table on the weekend were Marcel Eckardt, Desislava Bozhilova, Ben Taylor-Fuente, and Julian Roper. The announcers/interviewers were Abigail Davies and Ashleigh Wilmot, and the MC was Tahir Hajat.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches included:

• Diamond 9-foot tables with corner pockets, apparently, slightly under 4";​

• Simonis 860 Shark Grey cloth;​

• Aramith Tournament Black balls with a black-spots cue ball;​

• Magic Ball Rack racking template;​

• referee racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot (2-ball not necessarily in back location);​

• winner breaks from behind the head string in a box approximately 8" to either side of the long string;​

• no illegal-break rule, but referees enforce a forceful-break requirement;​

• no shot clock until the Last 16, then a 30-second shot clock (60 sec. after the break), with one 30-sec. extension per player per rack;​

• foul on all balls;​

• 3-foul rule in effect;​

• jump cues allowed;​

• all slop counts; and​

• lag for the break in each match.​

These stats are for 12 matches (195 games) from the single-elimination portion of the event (Stage 2, last 64 players). These were all of the matches on Table 1 on Friday and all of the matches on the "TV Table" on the weekend. These matches were 19% of the total of 63 matches played in Stage 2. All Stage 2 matches were races to 10 except for the semifinals to 11 and the final to 13. These 12 matches are listed here in the order in which they were played.

Friday, May 10

1. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz defeated Chang Yu Lung 10-5 (Last 64)​

2. Oscar Dominguez d. Max Lechner 10-4 (Last 64)​

3. Eklent Kaçi d. Mario He 10-7 (Last 64)​

4. Albin Ouschan d. Gary Wilson 10-9 (Last 32)​

5. Joshua Filler d. Anton Raga 10-0 (Last 32)​

Saturday, May 11

6. Filler d. Wiktor Zielinski 10-3 (Last 16)​

7. Kaçi d. Shane Van Boening 10-5 (Last 16)​

8. Robbie Capito d. Filler 10-9 (Quarterfinal)​

9. Pijus Labutis d. Kaçi 10-5 (Quarterfinal)​

Sunday, May 12

10. Mieszko Fortunski d. Petri Makkonen 11-4 (Semifinal)​

11. Robbie Capito d. Labutis 11-9 (Semifinal)​

12. Capito d. Fortunski 13-10 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 76% (88 of 116)​

Match losers -- 63% (50 of 79)​

Total -- 71% (138 of 195)​

Breaker won the game:​

Match winners -- 69% (80 of 116)​

Match losers -- 43% (34 of 79)​

Total -- 58% (114 of 195)​

Break-and-run games on all breaks:​

Match winners -- 22% (26 of 116)​

Match losers -- 15% (12 of 79)​

Total -- 19% (38 of 195)​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 30% (26 of 88)​

Match losers -- 24% (12 of 50)​

Total -- 28% (38 of 138)​

Here's a breakdown of the 195 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​

Breaker won the game: 90 (46% of the 195 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 48 (25%)​

​

Breaker fouled on the break:​

Breaker won the game: 3 (2%)​

Breaker lost the game: 11 (6%)​

​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​

Breaker won the game: 21 (11%)​

Breaker lost the game: 22 (11%)​

​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 58% (114 of 195) of all games,​

He won 65% (90 of 138) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​

He won 42% (24 of 57) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 38 break-and-run games represented 19% of all 195 games, 33% of the 114 games won by the breaker, and 28% of the 138 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 38 break-and-run games consisted of one 3-pack (by Kaçi), five 2-packs (2 by Capito and 1 each by He, Kaçi, and Filler), and 25 singles.

9-Balls on the break -- The 38 break-and-run games included 5 game-winning 9-balls on the break (2.6% of all breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on a fouled break, so it was spotted.

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the 2024 UK Open Pool Championship (9-Ball):
[This relates only to the 12 streamed Stage 2 matches I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 3, done just 4 times -- twice by Capito (a B&R and a game loss), once by Kaçi (a B&R), and once by Van Boening (a game loss).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.3, and the distribution was 72% 1 ball, 25% 2 balls, and 3% 3 balls.

• Number of innings:

35% (68 of 195) of the games ended in one inning – 38 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 30 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​

21% (40 of 195) of the games ended in the second inning.​

45% (87 of 195) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most visits to the table ended on the non-breaker's 11th visit.​

• 28% (54 of 195) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 28% (38 of 138)​

- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 71% (10 of 14)​

- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 14% (6 of 43)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

- Won the game in that same inning 46% of the time (88 of 190)​

- Won the game in a later inning 23% of the time (44 of 190)​

- Lost the game 31% of the time (58 of 190)​

[Note -- total games used here are 190 rather than 195 to eliminate the 5 games in which no ball was made after the break.​

• The loser won an average of 5.2 games in the 9 races to 10 (excludes the longer semifinals and final). The closest matches were two that went to hill/hill; the most lopsided was one at 10-0.

• The average elapsed time for the 9 races to 10 was was about 117 minutes. The average minutes per game for all 12 matches was 7.7. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and commercial breaks. Commercial breaks were taken only in the Last 16 and subsequent matches. They were significant in those matches, generally occurring after every 3 games in a match, and lasting about 3 minutes each.

• The race to 10 that was longest in elapsed time, at about 150 minutes, was Ouschan d. Wilson 10-9. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 9.0, was Sanchez-Ruiz d. Chang YL 10-5.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at about 77 minutes, was Filler d. Raga 10-0. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 6.5, was Kaçi d. Van Boening 10-5.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 13.9 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.6 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.3 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 55% of all games and in 69% of games that were not B&Rs.

 

[AtLarge]

2023 vs. 2024

How do the stats compare for this year's UK Open versus last year's? For both years, my stats are for all 12 matches streamed from the single-elimination portion of the event (Fri. - Sun.) on the feature tables with commentary (Table 1 on Friday and the "TV Table" on the weekend). That was 180 games in 2023 and 195 games in 2024. I'm aware of only one difference between the two years in rules and equipment -- corner-pocket mouths of 4" in 2023 vs. (purportedly) slightly less than 4" in 2024.

These stats are for 2023 first, then 2024.

• Successful breaks -- 74%, 71%​

• Breaker won game -- 60%, 58%​

• B&R games on all breaks -- 32%, 19%​

• B&R games on successful breaks -- 43%, 28%​

• Games ending in 1 inning -- 49%, 35%​

• Games going beyond the 2nd inning -- 27%, 45%​

• Runouts by the player at the table following the break -- 41%, 28%​

• Games won by first player to make a ball after the break -- 75%, 69%​

• Games per missed shot (approx.) -- 2.4, 1.3​

• Games per foul -- 4.4, 2.9​

• Matches won by winner of lag -- 33%, 25%​

• Minutes per game (including commercial breaks) -- 6.4, 7.7​

• Winning 9-balls on the break (% of all breaks) -- 3 (1.7%), 5 (2.6%)​

The two years are showing some fairly large differences. Why? The slightly smaller pockets this year? Variation because of the rather small sample sizes? Aberrational poor play this year? Subpar performance from fatigued players (too many events/matches)? None of these? All of these? Other reasons?

 

[Cameron Smith]

I think you see the biggest difference in this stat,

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning
59% 2023 vs 46% 2024

So collectively, the field wasn't even beating the 9 ball ghost. I’ve always been curious about that stat and I think its been as high as 70% for some of the events with 4.25”+ tables.

 

[jbart65]

Too many matches? This was the first big MR open this year.

Odd tourney, but hard to say why.

 

[pt109]

Thanx for the stats, AtLarge…..they tell a lot.

 

[Choir Boy]

Thanks for this. The biggest difference I noticed this year was the fear of missing any and all but the easiest shots. The game needs this on the one hand, but on the other hand this takes away seeing players attempting and making extremely difficult shots. Safety play was already borderline too important AND boring. And in my opinion shotmaking plays a huge part in creating drama for the spectators. What's the answer?

 

[sjm]

The two years are showing some fairly large differences. Why? The slightly smaller pockets this year? Variation because of the rather small sample sizes? Aberrational poor play this year? Subpar performance from fatigued players (too many events/matches)? None of these? All of these? Other reasons?

Thanks for these wonderful stats. While the tighter pockets are part of the reason for the drop in stats from 2023, I'd guess that the average Fargo rate of those who played on the stream table was significantly lower this year than last, mostly because four sub-800 Fargo players were the last four standing.

The quality of play for a Sunday at a Matchroom major was less than that to which we have grown accustomed, and it is surely because nobody in the Fargo Top 50 reached the final day.

 

[AtLarge]

... I'd guess that the average Fargo rate of those who played on the stream table was significantly lower this year than last, mostly because four sub-800 Fargo players were the last four standing.

The quality of play for a Sunday at a Matchroom major was less than that to which we have grown accustomed, and it is surely because nobody in the Fargo Top 50 reached the final day.

Yes, the 12 matches I tracked last year involved 14 different players, 9 of whom have FargoRates today of 800+ (I didn't try to find last year's rates). 19 of the 24 player appearances in the 12 matches were by 800+ players. I couldn't find a FargoRate for one of the players (Luong Duc Thien), but the average for the other 23 appearances is about 824. [I would guess that Luong would lower that average a bit.]

This year, the 12 tracked matches involved 16 different players, 10 of whom have FargoRates today of 800+. 14 of the 24 player appearances in the 12 matches were by 800+ players. The average for the 24 appearances is about 815.

Last year's 4 semifinalists have a current FR average of 832 while this year's semifinalists average 794.

 

[stewie]

I think they overdid the pocket size. I watched Lechner loosing against Oscar. He tried 2, 3 difficult shots and missed them all. Long shots with speed to get some momentum as he was trailing big time and didn't get many chances. This seems to be a situation almost getting impossible for them now on these tables. Must be very frustrating for them. Takes away chances of comebacks unfortunately.

 

[Nick B]

... So collectively, the field wasn't even beating the 9 ball ghost. I’ve always been curious about that stat and I think its been as high as 70% for some of the events with 4.25”+ tables.

Not sure you got that one correct. Playing the ghost is ball in hand after break. Also players won't try and break out 50/50 clusters and just put the breaker on "2 Fouls" with another safety. I'm pretty sure all the field of last 32 could beat the ghost. Correction I'm 100% sure even on those pockets.

 

[mikepage]

Yes, the 12 matches I tracked last year involved 14 different players, 9 of whom have FargoRates today of 800+ (I didn't try to find last year's rates). 19 of the 24 player appearances in the 12 matches were by 800+ players. I couldn't find a FargoRate for one of the players (Luong Duc Thien), but the average for the other 23 appearances is about 824. [I would guess that Luong would lower that average a bit.]

Duc Thien Luong is at 777. So if he had one appearance, the 824 appearance average last year would be lowered to 822 [vs 815 this year].

This year, the 12 tracked matches involved 16 different players, 10 of whom have FargoRates today of 800+. 14 of the 24 player appearances in the 12 matches were by 800+ players. The average for the 24 appearances is about 815.

Last year's 4 semifinalists have a current FR average of 832 while this year's semifinalists average 794.

 

[Monti]

Interesting that kaci is often cited as a slow player yet his game with Svb was the quickest?

 

[jbart65]

The quality of play for a Sunday at a Matchroom major was less than that to which we have grown accustomed, and it is surely because nobody in the Fargo Top 50 reached the final day.

I am not sure about this. All four players played better in their final 16 and quarterfinal matches. Much better by and large. They beat a bunch of 800-plus Fargo players in the process.

But then they flailed about in the semis and finals. I think it was nerves more than anything. Nobody seemed all that cool under pressure, especially Mikkonen. He didn’t look anything at all like the guy who beat Woodward.

Now, their erratic play could be why they have lower Fargos. But they were missing shots and making mistakes that they shouldn’t have regardless of their Fargos. I mean, Fortunski failing to call a push in a final? And then his mystery shot on the 6 to get to the 7 in the final fame.

 

[Cameron Smith]

Not sure you got that one correct. Playing the ghost is ball in hand after break. Also players won't try and break out 50/50 clusters and just put the breaker on "2 Fouls" with another safety. I'm pretty sure all the field of last 32 could beat the ghost. Correction I'm 100% sure even on those pockets.

I don’t mean it exactly literally, but just to be illustrative. But the main point is that the stat tells a story since it starts after the first ball is made and previous events were frequently in the 60-65% range. It’s not complicated as much by other compounding factors like players struggle with the break one year vs another.

 

[AtLarge]

I don’t mean it exactly literally, but just to be illustrative. But the main point is that the stat tells a story since it starts after the first ball is made and previous events were frequently in the 60-65% range. It’s not complicated as much by other compounding factors like players struggle with the break one year vs another.

Agree. And I appreciate that you took the trouble to look up a stat from last year's event!

 

[skogstokig]

2023 vs. 2024

How do the stats compare for this year's UK Open versus last year's? For both years, my stats are for all 12 matches streamed from the single-elimination portion of the event (Fri. - Sun.) on the feature tables with commentary (Table 1 on Friday and the "TV Table" on the weekend). That was 180 games in 2023 and 195 games in 2024. I'm aware of only one difference between the two years in rules and equipment -- corner-pocket mouths of 4" in 2023 vs. (purportedly) slightly less than 4" in 2024.

These stats are for 2023 first, then 2024.

• Successful breaks -- 74%, 71%​

• Breaker won game -- 60%, 58%​

• B&R games on all breaks -- 32%, 19%​

• B&R games on successful breaks -- 43%, 28%​

• Games ending in 1 inning -- 49%, 35%​

• Games going beyond the 2nd inning -- 27%, 45%​

• Runouts by the player at the table following the break -- 41%, 28%​

• Games won by first player to make a ball after the break -- 75%, 69%​

• Games per missed shot (approx.) -- 2.4, 1.3​

• Games per foul -- 4.4, 2.9​

• Matches won by winner of lag -- 33%, 25%​

• Minutes per game (including commercial breaks) -- 6.4, 7.7​

• Winning 9-balls on the break (% of all breaks) -- 3 (1.7%), 5 (2.6%)​

The two years are showing some fairly large differences. Why? The slightly smaller pockets this year? Variation because of the rather small sample sizes? Aberrational poor play this year? Subpar performance from fatigued players (too many events/matches)? None of these? All of these? Other reasons?

thanks for the brilliant stats as always. as someone who watched double elim TV table and also some side table matches, i don't think it's a matter of sample size. fatigue may be a factor but these guys are used to playing all day all week. i would say the biggest explanation is the pocket size difference.

why it produced semifinalists of slightly lower rank may be in the field of aberration or chance but also, these are fairly young players with an upward trajectory. i thought the same thing when people were talking about "that dohr guy" in the DE/early SE - yes, he may have a low fargorate, but there's a reason fargo is more of an american obsession than something asians or europeans cares about..

 

[skip100]

19% break and run in 9 ball is ridiculous. This snookerization of pool needs to stop.

 

[misterpoole]

Filler 10-0 then 10-3. Didn't seem to be having any problems with the tighter pockets. Then he played poorly during the first half of the Capito match, but not because of the pockets. He just was 'off' as the commentators stated multiple times. Anyone know why he was 'off'. He beat himself.

 

[skogstokig]

Filler 10-0 then 10-3. Didn't seem to be having any problems with the tighter pockets. Then he played poorly during the first half of the Capito match, but not because of the pockets. He just was 'off' as the commentators stated multiple times. Anyone know why he was 'off'. He beat himself.

he was feeling ill.