Break Stats -- 2025 Derby City Classic 9-Ball, January 2025

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2025 Derby City Classic 9-Ball event played January 22-26 at Caesars Southern Indiana Hotel & Casino in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. Joshua Filler won the event, defeating Alex Pagulayan in the final match.

This event had 500 players. It operated under the standard DCC format of redrawing match pairings for every round, with one buy-back permitted for each player. All races were to 9.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches included:

• Diamond 9-foot table with 4½" corner pockets and blue Simonis 860 or 860 HR cloth;​

• Aramith Tournament balls with an Aramith "Diamond" cue ball with blue spots;​

• Accu-Rack racking template;​

• rack your own, with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball not in the back location;​

• winner breaks from the break box -- one diamond to each side of the long string;​

• no 3-point illegal-break rule;​

• jump cues allowed;​

• 30-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and​

• all slop counts.​

The 13 matches (177 games) streamed by Accu-Stats were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. TPAs were not given for some of the matches. The last 5 games of Match 12 were conceded, so the stats include only the first 5 games for that match.

Wed., Jan. 22

1. Moritz Neuhausen (.936) defeated Lee Vann Corteza (.918) 9-7​

Thurs., Jan. 23

2. Tony Chohan (.862) d. Ruslan Chinakhov (.828) 9-6​

Fri., Jan. 24

3. Shane Van Boening (.905) d. Francisco Bustamante (.848) 9-3​

4. Sergio Rivas (.893) d. Chohan (.606) 9-2​

Sat., Jan. 25 (extending through the night until about 11:00 am Sunday morning)

5. Brandon Shuff (.849) d. Nicholas De Leon (.836) 9-6​

6. Neuhausen (.918) d. Van Boening (.877) 9-6​

7. Pia Filler d. Mika Immonen 9-2​

8. Joshua Filler (.935) d. Neuhausen (.857) 9-6​

9. Alex Pagulayan (.898) d. Skyler Woodward (.844) 9-7​

10. Fedor Gorst (.902) d. Billy Thorpe (.873) 9-8​

11. Filler d. Van Boening 9-0​

12. Filler d. Gorst 9-1, conceded from 4-1 (Semifinal)​

​

Sun., Jan 26

13. Filler (.962) d. Pagulayan (.898) 9-6 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 72% (77 of 107)​

Match losers -- 57% (37 of 65)​

Total -- 66% (114 of 172)​

​

Breaker won the game:​

Match winners -- 66% (71 of 107)​

Match losers -- 37% (24 of 65)​

Total -- 55% (95 of 172)​

​

Break-and-run games on all breaks:​

Match winners -- 34% (36 of 107)​

Match losers -- 15% (10 of 65)​

Total -- 27% (46 of 172)​

​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 47% (36 of 77)​

Match losers -- 27% (10 of 37)​

Total -- 40% (46 of 114)​

Here's a breakdown of the 172 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​

Breaker won the game: 78 (45% of the 172 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 36 (21%)​

​

Breaker fouled on the break:​

Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)​

Breaker lost the game: 10 (6%)​

​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​

Breaker won the game: 15 (9%)​

Breaker lost the game: 31 (18%)​

​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 55% (95 of 172) of all games,​

He won 68% (78 of 114) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​

He won 29% (17 of 58) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 46 break-and-run games represented 27% of all 172 games, 48% of the 95 games won by the breaker, and 40% of the 114 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 46 break-and-run games consisted of one 7-pack (by Filler), three 3-packs (two by Filler, one by Van Boening), five 2-packs and 20 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 46 break-and-run games included 3 9-balls on the break (1.7% of the 172 breaks).

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the 2025 DCC 9-Ball event
[This relates only to the 13 matches streamed by Accu-Stats, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4. It was done twice, once each by Filler and Gorst; they lost both games. Three balls were made on the break in 13 games, 11 of which were won by the breaker.

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.1. On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.6 and the distribution was 57% 1 ball, 31% 2 balls, and 12% 3 or 4 balls.

• Number of innings:

51% (87 of 172) of the games ended in one inning – 46 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 41 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​

22% (37 of 172) of the games ended in the second inning.​

28% (48 of 172) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The games with the most innings ended on the non-breaker's 5th visit to the table.​

• 41% (70 of 172) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 40% (46 of 114)​

- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 75% (9 of 12)​

- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 33% (15 of 46)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

- Won the game in that same inning 67% of the time (113 of 169)​

- Won the game in a later inning 16% of the time (27 of 169)​

- Lost the game 17% of the time (29 of 169)​

[Note -- total games used here are 169 rather than 172 to eliminate the games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The match loser won an average of 4.9 games in these races to 9 (excludes Match 12). Just one match went to hill/hill (Gorst d. Thorpe); the most lopsided was one at 9-0 (Filler d. Van Boening).

• The average elapsed time for these races to 9 was 74½ minutes (excludes Match 12). The average minutes per game for all 172 games was 5.3. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at about 108 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 6.8, was Pagulayan d. Woodward 9-7.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time (excluding Match 12), at about 29 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 3.3, was Filler d. Van Boening 9-0.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 14.3 games, other fouls 1 for every 6.1 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.6 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 41% of all games and in 56% of games that were not B&Rs.

 

[nightmare]

What was the score of the nine ball finals?

 

[skogstokig]

What was the score of the nine ball finals?

9-6

 

[bbb]

thank you @AtLarge for the stats

 

[Monti]

Thanks for the stats. Interesting that the two 4 balls off the break resulted in a loss. I guess if you have no shot and have to play safe, there are less balls to hide between

 

[AtLarge]

What was the score of the nine ball finals?

Oops, I neglected to put that in post #1, Match 13. I edited it; thanks.

 

[AtLarge]

Thanks for the stats. Interesting that the two 4 balls off the break resulted in a loss. I guess if you have no shot and have to play safe, there are less balls to hide between

Filler scratched on that break, and Pagulayan ran out. Gorst shot at a long, difficult 2-ball right after the break and missed. Thorpe then also missed the 2-ball to the intended pocket but slopped it in another pocket and ran out.