Break Stats -- 2025 European Open Pool Championship (9-Ball), March 2025

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2025 European Open Pool Championship played March 11-16 at the Hotel Hills Sarajevo in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Pay-per-view streaming was provided on wnttv.com. This was a 256-player 9-Ball event, produced by Matchroom Sport, with double elimination down to 64 players (32 on the winners' side and 32 on the one-loss side) and then single-elimination to the end. Joshua Filler won the tournament, defeating Naoyuki Oi in the final match.

The commentators (2 per match) were Phil Yates, Michael McMullan, Jeremy Jones, and Karl Boyes, with Scott Frost on one match. The referees were Marcel Eckardt, Ben Taylor-Fuente, and several others whose names I do not know. On the weekend, the announcer/interviewer was Di Stewart and the MC was Andrej Petrovic.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches included:
• Diamond 9-foot table with 4" corner pockets;​
• Simonis 860 Shark Grey cloth;​
• Aramith Tournament Black balls with a black-spots cue ball;​
• Magic Ball Rack racking template;​
• referee racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball on one of the wings or in the back location;​
• winner breaks from behind the head string in a box approximately 8" to either side of the long string;​
• no illegal-break rule, but referees enforce a forceful-break requirement (no violations);​
• 30-second shot clock (60 sec. after the break or a push out), with one 30-sec. extension per player per rack;​
• foul on all balls;​
• 3-foul rule in effect (violation did not occur);​
• jump cues allowed;​
• all slop counts; and​
• lag for the break in each match.​

These stats are for all 17 matches (247 games) that were played on "Table 1" from Thursday through Sunday -- 5 matches in the Qualification rounds on Thursday, 5 matches in the Last 64 and Last 32 rounds on Friday, and 7 matches played on the weekend. These 17 matches are listed here in the order in which they were played. [Note: the first part of one of the games in Match 7 below was not shown on the stream, so the stats are for 246 games instead of 247.]

Thursday, March 13
1. Ko Ping Chung defeated Nguyen Anh Tuan 9-2​
2. Sanjin Pehlivanovic d. Dimitris Loukatos 9-1​
3. Emil Gangflot d. Mickey Krause 9-5​
4. Naoyuki Oi d. Mika Van Berkel 9-1​
5. Hubert Lopotko d. Krause 9-4​

Friday, March 14
6. Edward Koyongian d. Johann Chua 10-6 (Last 64)​
7. Luong Duc Thien d. Kledio Kaçi 10-9 (Last 64)​
8. Pehlivanovic d. Besar Spahiu 10-6 (Last 64)​
9. Tobias Bongers d. Yannick Ponders 10-9 (Last 32)​
10. Pehlivanovic d. Eklent Kaçi 10-8 (Last 32)​

Saturday, March 15
11. Wojiech Szewczyk d. Pehlivanovic 10-2 (Last 16)​
12. Joshua Filler d. Jayson Shaw 10-4 (Last 16)​
13. Pijus Labutis d. Duong Quoc Hoang 10-6 (Quarterfinal)​
14. Filler d. Szewczyk 10-6 (Quarterfinal)​

Sunday, March 16
15. Oi d. Daniel Maciol 11-1 (Semifinal)​
16. Filler d. Labutis 11-6 (Semifinal)​
17. Filler d. Oi 13-1 (Final)​

Overall results
Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 80% (131 of 164)​
Match losers -- 70% (57 of 82)​
Total -- 76% (188 of 246)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 71% (116 of 164)​
Match losers -- 34% (28 of 82)​
Total -- 59% (144 of 246)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 29% (47 of 164)​
Match losers -- 12% (10 of 82)​
Total -- 23% (57 of 246)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 36% (47 of 131)​
Match losers -- 18% (10 of 57)​
Total -- 30% (57 of 188)

Here's a breakdown of the 246 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 123 (50% of the 246 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 65 (26%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 11 (4%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 18 (7%)​
Breaker lost the game: 26 (11%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 59% (144 of 246) of all games,​
He won 65% (123 of 188) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 36% (21 of 58) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 57 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 246 games, 40% of the 144 games won by the breaker, and 30% of the 188 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 57 break-and-run games consisted of one 3-pack (Ko PC), seven 2-packs (4 by Filler, and 1 each by Ko PC, Szewczyk, and Oi), and 40 singles. No one in these 17 matches broke and ran more than 3 games in a row.

9-Balls on the break -- 5 (2.0% of all 246 games)
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2025 European Open Pool Championship (9-Ball):
[This relates only to the 17 streamed matches I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Labutis in a game win. Three balls were made on the break 3 times; the breaker won 2 of those games (1 by B&R).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.3, and the distribution was 74% 1 ball, 24% 2 balls, and 2% 3 or 4 balls.

• Number of innings:
40% (99 of 246) of the games ended in one inning – 57 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 42 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
29% (72 of 246) of the games ended in the second inning.​
30% (75 of 246) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most visits to the table ended on the non-breaker's 9th visit.​

• 31% (76 of 246) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 30% (57 of 188)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 79% (11 of 14)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 18% (8 of 44)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 54% of the time (131 of 241)​
- Won the game in a later inning 20% of the time (48 of 241)​
- Lost the game 26% of the time (62 of 241)​
[Note -- total games used here are 241 rather than 246 to eliminate the 5 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 6.2 games in the 9 races to 10 (excludes the shorter races to 9 on Thursday and the longer semifinals and final). Two of the 17 matches went to hill/hill (both in races to 10). The most lopsided matches were one at 13-1, one at 11-1, and two at 9-1.

• The average minutes per game for all 17 matches was 6.4. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made, so it includes time for racking and commercial breaks. Commercial breaks were taken only in the Last 16 and subsequent matches. They were significant in those matches, generally occurring after every 3 games in a match, and lasting about 3 minutes each. The 10 matches on Thursday and Friday that had no commercial breaks averaged 6.4 minutes per game. The 7 matches on the weekend that had commercial breaks also averaged 6.4 minutes per game, but an estimated average of 5.9 minutes per game if there had been no commercial breaks.

• The match that was highest in average minutes per game, at 8.0, was Pehlivanovic d. Spahiu. The two matches lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.8, were Oi d. Van Berkel and Lopotko d. Krause. None of those 3 matches had commercial breaks.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 17.6 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.6 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.0 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 50% of all games and in 65% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
What a dominant performance from Filler. And to think some people here were saying he was washed up after switching cues :ROFLMAO:
 
I’m surprised the average on the break was one.
Thanks, At,arge
 
Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches included:
• Diamond 9-foot table (I did not hear any mention of the pocket sizes);​
• Simonis 860 Shark Grey cloth;


4" was mentioned.

great stats as usual. the amount of lopsided scores on the last two days pops out. probably an anomaly rather than a tendency, but still. naoyuki beating maciol 11-1 and filler then beating naoyuki 13-1 the same day is wild. probably won't happen again in many years​
 
Looks like 4 to me....

Screenshot 2025-03-17 012035.png


Screenshot 2025-03-17 012006.png


Maybe I should actually carry a ruler around.
 
looks partly like the winners made more balls on the breaks.

and the with 4 inch pockets seems too many balls went in on the break. which in my mind leads to the skill in making specific balls on the break
and then it follows that the break even though in general doesn't look decisive, it may be. especially so for the very top players that mastered it.
 
looks partly like the winners made more balls on the breaks. ...
The match winners in the matches I tracked broke 2.0 times as often as the losers (164 to 82), made 2.2 times as many balls in total on the break including fouled breaks (178 to 80), and averaged 1.1 balls per break vs. the match losers' 1.0 balls per break. Not much difference there. Maybe the winners' table layouts after the break were better on average. I'll determine the percentage of the time each group (winners and losers) took an offensive shot after the break rather than a push or safety, but can't do that right now.
 
ten percent more can add up to a game a set. so that is significant.

"Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 123 (50% of the 246 games)
Breaker lost the game: 65 (26%)"

so the breaker was about a two to one favorite to win the game when he had a good break. so the best breakers taken individually not as the group likely had an even larger advantage over a weaker breaker.
 
... I'll determine the percentage of the time each group (winners and losers) took an offensive shot after the break rather than a push or safety, but can't do that right now.
Following their own successful breaks in the 17 matches in post #1, the match winners took offensive shots (rather than safes or pushes) 63% of the time (80 of 126) versus 60% (34 of 57) for the match losers.

Following their opponent's dry breaks, the match winners took offensive shots 41% of the time (7 of 17) versus 59% (16 of 27) for the match losers.

So the match winners and match losers shot to make a ball at a fairly similar frequency after successful breaks. The table layouts, at least for the lowest-numbered ball on the table after the break, may have been, on average, similar in difficulty. On dry breaks by their opponents, match winners went defensive at a higher frequency than did match losers. Perhaps the layouts left by match losers after their dry breaks were more difficullt, but the numbers on dry breaks were pretty small.
 
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