Break Stats -- 2025 Super Billiards Expo's Professional Players Championship (9-Ball), April 2025

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Super Billiards Expo's 2025 Professional Players Championship played April 10-13, 2025 at the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center in Oaks, Pennsylvania. I watched the pay-per-view streaming on wnttv.com. Niels Feijen won the event, defeating Eklent Kaçi in the final match.

The commentators were Scott Frost, Brad Silver, Frank Maialetti, and Jeremy Jones.

Conditions -- The conditions for the feature table included:
• Diamond 9-foot table with 4½" corner pockets;​
• Simonis Tournament Blue cloth;​
• Aramith Tournament balls with a black-spots cue ball;​
• Magic Ball Rack racking template;​
• breaker racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball on one of the wings or in the back location;​
• alternate breaks from behind the head string in a box approximately 8" to either side of the long string;​
• foul on all balls;​
• 3-foul rule in effect (violation did not occur);​
• jump cues allowed;​
• no shot clock;​
• all slop counts; and​
• lag for the break in each match.​

This was a 128-player event, with double elimination (Stage 1) down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side), and then single elimination (Stage 2) to the end. A rather unusual format was used for Stage 2 -- the 8 players from the one-loss side were not matched up against the 8 from the undefeated side (until the final match). Instead, the two groups of 8 continued playing down from the two bracket locations they had in Stage 1, until one player (a finalist) was left from each group. So the format guaranteed that the quarterfinalists would be 4 players from each group, the semifinalists would be 2 from each group, and the finalists would be 1 from each group. The prize money for players defeated in the Last 16 round, in the quarterfinals, and in the semifinals was a bit larger for the players who reached Stage 2 without a loss than for the players who reached Stage 2 with a loss.

These stats are for all 19 matches (294 games) played on the feature table, with commentary. Matches 1 through 15 below were in the double-elimination stage and matches 16-19 were in the single-elimination stage. [Note: Two games in each of Matches 9, 11, and 17 below were not shown on the streams, so the stats are for 288 games instead of 294.]

Thursday, April 10
1. Fedor Gorst defeated David Callaghan 10-1​
2. Billy Thorpe d. Rodney Morris 10-6​
3. Ralf Souquet d. Earl Strickland 10-3​
4. Lo Ho Sum d. Sam Henderson 10-7​
5. Skyler Woodward d. Eric Roberts 10-7​

Fri., April 11
6. Strickland d. Barnes Hutchins 10-2​
7. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz d. Payne McBride 10-3​
8. David Alcaide d. Rocky Ma 10-5​
9. Kledio Kaçi d. Jonas Souto 10-5​
10. Mike Dechaine d. Eddie Abraham 10-6​
11. Raymond Linares d. Donny Mills 10-9​

Sat., April 12
12. Jeremy Seaman d. Andri Januarta 10-6​
13. Mickey Krause d. Henderson 10-9​
14. Gorst d. Sanjin Pehlivanovic 10-6​
15. Niels Feijen d. Woodward 10-3​
16. Eklent Kaçi d. Pijus Labutis 10-6 (Last 16)​

Sun., April 13
17. Gorst d. Jayson Shaw 10-3 (Quarterfinal)​
18. E. Kaçi d. Gorst 10-9 (Semifinal)​
19. Feijen d. E. Kaçi 10-8 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 73% (106 of 145)​
Match losers -- 73% (104 of 143)​
Total -- 73% (210 of 288)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 66% (96 of 145)​
Match losers -- 37% (53 of 143)​
Total -- 52% (149 of 288)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 28% (41 of 145)​
Match losers -- 17% (25 of 143)​
Total -- 23% (66 of 288)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 39% (41 of 106)​
Match losers -- 24% (25 of 104)​
Total -- 31% (66 of 210)

Here's a breakdown of the 288 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 127 (44% of the 288 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 83 (29%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 23 (8%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 18 (6%)​
Breaker lost the game: 33 (11%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 52% (149 of 288) of all games,​
He won 60% (127 of 210) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 28% (22 of 78) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 66 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 288 games, 44% of the 149 games won by the breaker, and 31% of the 210 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 66 break-and-run games consisted of two alternate-break 3-packs (one each by K. Kaçi and Henderson), 10 alternate-break 2-packs, and 40 singles. So only twice in these matches did anyone break and run more than 2 games in a row on his own break.

9-balls on the break -- The 66 B&R games included 4 game-winning 9-balls on the break (1.4% of all 288 breaks).
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2025 Professional Players Championship:
[This relates only to the 19 tracked matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 3, done 6 times. Three of those 6 games were won by B&R (one a 9-ball on the break), one was won by the breaker but not by B&R, and 2 were lost.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.1 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4, and the distribution was 66% 1 ball, 31% 2 balls, and 3% 3 balls.

• Number of innings:
45% (130 of 288) of the games ended in one inning – 66 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 64 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
23% (67 of 288) of the games ended on the second inning.​
32% (91 of 288) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the non-breaker's 8th visit.​

• 33% (95 of 288) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 31% (66 of 210)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 63% (17 of 27)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 24% (12 of 51)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 55% of the time (156 of 284)​
- Won the game in a later inning 16% of the time (46 of 284)​
- Lost the game 29% of the time (82 of 284)​
[Note -- total games used here are 284 rather than 288 to eliminate the 4 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The match loser won an average of 5.5 games in these races to 10. Three matches went to hill/hill; the fewest games won in a match was 1.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at about 163 minutes, was E. Kaçi d. Gorst 10-9. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 8,8, was E. Kaçi d. Labutis 10-6. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at about 55 minutes, was Gorst d. Callaghan 10-1. The match that was lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.7, was Thorpe d. Morris 10-6.

• The average elapsed time for these races to 10 was about 103 minutes. The average minutes per game was about 6.6 minutes. E. Kaçi was in 3 of these 19 matches; the average elapsed time for those 3 matches was about 152 minutes and the average minutes per game was about 8.6 minutes.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 10.7 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.7 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.6 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 45% of all games and in about 59% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
One thing I didn't expect is that many of the players break from well inside the break box. I also noticed some of that in the European Open and the PLP.
 
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