Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXVIII 9-Ball Open, September 2017

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the matches streamed free by AZBtv this week from the Turning Stone Classic XXVIII 9-Ball Open in Verona, New York.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:

- Diamond 9-foot table with 4½" pro-cut corner pockets;​

- Tournament Blue Simonis 860 cloth;​

- Aramith Tournament TV balls with the measles cue ball;​

- Diamond wooden rack;​

- winner breaks from the box (2 diamonds wide);​

- loser racks, with the 1-ball on the spot;​

- cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting;​

- no jump cues allowed; and​

- all slop counts.​

The 23 matches (325 games) on the main streaming table were as follows (shown in the order in which they were played). These 23 matches represented 9.2% of the event's total of 249 matches played (excludes the 5 forfeited matches).
[Note: These stats exclude 10 games that I missed -- 8 at the start of the Boemmels/Fleming match, 1 in the Rodriguez/Herring match, and 1 in the Thorpe/Rodriguez match.]

Thurs., Aug. 31, 2017

Earl Strickland defeated Erik Hjorleifson 9-6, Mika Immonen d. Eric Cloutier 9-5,​

Matt Tetreault d. Pat Fleming 9-7, and Danny Hewitt d. Martin Daigle 9-7.​

​

Fri., Sept. 1

Harry Chaggaris d. Bruce Carroll 9-3, Billy Thorpe d. Dave Fernandez 9-3,​

Earl Herring d. Norm Wadden 9-8, Billy Lanna d. Johnny Archer 9-4,​

Karen Corr d. Mike Nicoloro 9-5, Donny Mils d. Kevin West 9-0, and Norm Pomainville d. Michael Yednak 9-5.​

​

Sat., Sept. 2

Brent Boemmels d. Steve Fleming 9-7, Bucky Souvanthong d. Kerry McAuliffe 9-3,​

Rodney Morris d. Thorpe 9-8, Jorge Rodriguez d. Herring 9-4,​

Thorpe d. Rodriguez 9-7, Jayson Shaw d. Strickland 9-2, and Souvanthong d. Morris 9-5.​

​

Sun., Sept. 3

Shane Van Boening d. Mills 9-8, Jeremy Sossei d. Immonen 9-7, Shaw d. Van Boening 9-3,​

Van Boening d. Mills 9-3 (Semifinal), and Van Boening d. Shaw 13-4 (Finals).​

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 59% of the time (187 of 315), won 53% of the games (167 of 315), and broke and ran 17% of the games (55 of 315).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 315 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​

Breaker won the game: 114 (36% of the 315 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 73 (23%)​

​

Breaker fouled on the break:​

Breaker won the game: 7 (2%)​

Breaker lost the game: 21 (7%)​

​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​

Breaker won the game: 46 (15%)​

Breaker lost the game: 54 (17%)​

​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 53% (167 of 315) of all games,​

He won 61% (114 of 187) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​

He won 25% (7 of 28) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​

He won 46% (46 of 100) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​

He won 41% (53 of 128) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games -- The 55 break-and-run games represented 17% of all 315 games, 33% of the 167 games won by the breaker, and 29% of the 187 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul). The 55 break-and-run games (including 9's on the break) consisted of one 5-pack (by Van Boening), one 3-pack (by Shaw), eight 2-packs and 31 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 55 break-and-run games included 7 9-balls on the break (2.2% of the 315 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on a fouled break.

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXVIII 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 23 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4 -- once each by Souvanthong and Sossei (and they both ran out). Three balls were made on a single break 13 times.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.9 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4.

• 37% (118 of 315) of the games ended in one inning – 17% (55) won by the breaker (B&R) and 20% (63) won by the non-breaker. 20% (63 of 315) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 28% (87 of 315) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 29% (55 of 187)​

- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 57% (16 of 28)​

- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 18% (18 of 100)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

- Won the game in that same inning 44% of the time (134 of 306)​

- Won the game in a later inning 21% of the time (63 of 306)​

- Lost the game 36% of the time (109 of 306)​

[Note -- total games used here are 306 rather than 315 to eliminate the 7 games in which no ball was made after the break and the 2 games for which I failed to note who made the first ball after the break.]​

• For the 22 races to 9 (i.e., excluding the finals race to 13) the loser won an average of 5.0 games. The loser won 3 or fewer games in 7 of those 22 matches, including one 9-0 score. Three of those 22 matches went hill/hill.

• The average elapsed time for the 22 races to 9 was 73 minutes, or 5.2 minutes per game. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The Tetreault d. Fleming match was by far the longest in elapsed time at 129 minutes (next longest was 98 minutes), and highest in average minutes per game at 8.1 min./game for the 16 games.

• The Mils d. West match was shortest in elapsed time at 41 minutes for the 9 games. The Thorpe d. Rodriguez match was lowest in average minutes per game at about 3.4 min./game for the 16 games.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 11 games, other fouls 1 for every 3 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.2 games.

• About 47% of the games involved one or more safeties.

 

[barrymuch90]

The very last stat provided is interesting to me. Top level 9 ball is obviously not a break contest or break n run contest if every other game includes forced intended safeties. This is another example in my opinion why 9 ball is actually a good game for the pros and better than 8 ball. The intended safeties per game in 8 ball is like half that if not fewer. Idk why this jumped out at me but it just proves the games not to easy or broken or anything else.

 

[AtLarge]

The very last stat provided is interesting to me. Top level 9 ball is obviously not a break contest or break n run contest if every other game includes forced intended safeties. This is another example in my opinion why 9 ball is actually a good game for the pros and better than 8 ball. The intended safeties per game in 8 ball is like half that if not fewer. Idk why this jumped out at me but it just proves the games not to easy or broken or anything else.

Yes, for high-level players, games with safeties are far fewer in 8-Ball than in 9-Ball or 10-Ball.

The results for the Turning Stone events have been quite consistent. The percentages of streamed games with safeties were about 47%, 45%, 48%, 45%, and 44% (going backwards in time) for the last 5 events. But not all the TS players in streamed matches are top pros. If we look only at the final-day matches, the average over those most recent 5 events is 37%, still pretty high.

For 8-Ball, the percentage was about 8% at both the recent (Aug. 2017) US Open and at the most recent Make-It-Happen 8-Ball event (Nov. 2016). Back in 2014 at the CSI Invitational and at the MIH event it was only 4%.

Now, in Darren Appleton's World Pool Series, 8-Ball has been toughened because of the changes in rules and equipment (such as take the group you make more of on the break, and break outside a central box). So safeties are more prevalent, but still nothing like in 9-Ball. For Darren's 3 events so far, safeties have been played in about 16% of the streamed games.

 

[AtLarge]

Van Boening, Shaw, and Mills took the top 3 places in the tournament. They accounted for 22% of the appearances in the 23 streamed matches (10 of 46) and 24% of the break shots tracked (75 of 315). Here are a few stats for the three of them combined versus all the other players who appeared in any of the 23 streamed matches.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
• Top 3 -- 73% (55 of 75)
• All others -- 55% (132 of 240)
• Total -- 59% (187 of 315)

Breaker won the game:
• Top 3 -- 67% (50 of 75)
• All others -- 49% (117 of 240)
• Total -- 53% (167 of 315)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
• Top 3 -- 35% (26 of 75)
• All others -- 12% (29 of 240)
• Total -- 17% (55 of 315)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
• Top 3 -- 47% (26 of 55)
• All others -- 22% (29 of 132)
• Total -- 29% (55 of 187)

 

[dearnold]

Thanks for taking the time to post this. Much appreciated.