Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXXV 9-Ball Open, September 2022

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Turning Stone Classic XXXV 9-Ball Open played September 1-4, 2022 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York. Free live streaming was provided by AZBtv on the Facebook page of UpState AL.

This was a 128-player double-elimination event. Jayson Shaw won the tournament, defeating Donny Mills in the final match. This was Shaw's 8th win at Turning Stone (all in the last 14 events).

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches in this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with "pro-cut" pockets (but possibly 4¼" corners instead of 4½") and espresso-colored rails;​
- Tournament Blue Simonis 860 or 860 HR cloth;​
- Super Aramith Pro balls;​
- Diamond black polycarbonate triangle rack;​
- winner breaks from a central box (2 diamonds wide);​
- loser racks, with the 1-ball on the foot spot;​
- cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting;​
- no jump cues allowed;​
- no shot clock;​
- all slop counts; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The stats are for 20 of the 23 matches (281 games) shown on the main streaming table. I excluded one of those 23 matches from the stats because the level of play was much worse than in any of the other matches. Also, I did not watch 2 of the 23 matches -- the losers'-side matches between two amateurs that were streamed at 10 am on Friday and Saturday. These 20 tracked matches represented 7.9% of the event's total of 252 matches played (2 matches were forfeited -- 1 in full and 1 that was in progress), and are listed here in the order in which they were played.

Thursday, September 1, 2022
1. Shane Van Boening defeated Sean Santoro 9-2​
2. Mika Immonen d. Hunter Lombardo 9-4​
3. Jonathan Smith d. Eric Cloutier 9-5​
4. Mike Yednak d. Joe Darigis 9-4​

Friday, Sept. 2
5. Bucky Souvanthong d. Pat Fleming 9-5​
6. Yesid Garibello d. Dave Dreidel 9-6​
7. Demetrius Jelatis d. Ray McNamara 9-8​
8. Kevin West d. Earl Herring 9-6​
9. Kyle Akaloo d. Jim Prather 9-6​

Saturday, Sept. 3
10. Dany Normandin d. Sylvain Deslauriers 9-3​
11. Jayson Shaw d. Earl Strickland 9-3​
12. Garibello d. Redgie Cutler 9-4​
13. Garibello d. Frankie Hernandez 9-8​
14. Shaw d. Danny Hewitt 9-4​
15. Strickland d. Jeremy Sossei 9-8​

Sunday, Sept. 4
16. Immonen d. Donny Mills 9-4​
17. Souvanthong d. Jimmy Rivera 9-5​
18. Shaw d. Immonen 9-1 (Hotseat match)​
19. Mills d. Immonen 9-6 (Semifinal)​
20. Shaw d. Mills 13-5 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 59% (102 of 174) for match winners, 56% (60 of 107) for match losers, and 58% (162 of 281) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 67% (116 of 174) for match winners, 36% (39 of 107) for match losers, and 55% (155 of 281) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 19% (33 of 174) for match winners, 12% (13 of 107) for match losers, and 16% (46 of 281) in total​
Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 32% (33 of 102) for match winners, 22% (13 of 60) for match losers, and 28% (46 of 162) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 281 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 95 (34% of the 281 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 67 (24%)​

Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 4 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 6 (2%)​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 56 (20%)​
Breaker lost the game: 53 (19%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 55% (155 of 281) of all games,
He won 59% (95 of 162) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 50% (60 of 119) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 46 break-and-run games represented 16% of all 281 games, 30% of the 155 games won by the breaker, and 28% of the 162 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 46 break-and-run games (including 9's on the break) consisted of one 3-pack (by Shaw in the Finals), five 2-packs (two by Mills and one each by Van Boening, Immonen, and Fleming), and 33 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 46 break-and-run games included 7 9-balls on the break (2.5% of all 281 breaks). Also, 1 9-ball was made on a fouled break, so it was spotted.
 

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Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXXV 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 20 tracked matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 3, done just four times -- by Van Boening (a game loss), Jelatis (a game loss), Shaw (a game win by B&R), and Mills (a game loss).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.8 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.3, and the distribution was 75% 1 ball, 22% 2 balls, and 2% 3 balls.

• 33% (92 of 281) of the games ended in one inning – 16% (46) won by the breaker (B&R) and 16% (46) won by the non-breaker. 18% (51 of 281) of the games lasted more than 3 innings. The games with the most innings were two that ended on the breaker's 10th visit to the table.

• 23% (65 of 281) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 28% (46 of 162)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 40% (4 of 10)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 14% (15 of 109)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 42% of the time (116 of 274)​
- Won the game in a later inning 28% of the time (77 of 274)​
- Lost the game 30% of the time (81 of 274)​
[Note -- total games used here are 274 rather than 281 to eliminate the 7 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• Excluding the Finals race to 13, the loser won an average of 4.8 games in the 19 races to 9. Three matches went to hill/hill; the most lopsided was the hotseat match at 9-1.

• The average elapsed time for the 19 races to 9 was 83 minutes, or 6.0 minutes per game. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made, so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was both longest in elapsed time, at 142 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.4, was Jelatis d. McNamara 9-8.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at a little under 26 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 2.3, was Van Boening d. Santoro 9-2.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 28.1 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.0 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.3 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 57% of all games and in 68% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
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