Did I just get Hustled?

Fun thread to read. Fun to think that somebody really could think you can fool true 50/50 odds, without messing with the odds themselves. I also wonder why MacGyver (suitable nick there!) asks if he was conned, when clearly he knows tricks and the facts better than anybody else. But still, what I wanted to say is thanks, I really enjoyed it.

...And claiming you get a coin same side up 51% of the time (of course based on minor assumptions of all coins in the world behaving the same and all people tossing the the same as some lab "robot" etc). That was a hoot! Of course, now that it has been "scientifically proven", nobody can disapprove of it without a PhD. :D

for the fun the fun of it, just one more time:

10 tosses, the "tossee" calling heads 7 times, but changing the call for the last three times, to keep the tosser from double-guessing ;) ... goes like this:

1.heads - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
2.heads - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
3.heads - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
4.heads - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
5.heads - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
6.heads - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
7.heads - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
8.tails - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
9.tails - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
0.tails - 50/50 change of heads - chance of winning: .5
 
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Well, I was refering to the next part of swiping the money and accusing of cheating, ect....

I didn't know if it was a common thing or what honestly.... I knew the actual tosses and next tosses were legit but was wondering what exactly happened, ie if common or what.


Anyway, One of the factors that Persi talks about is that not every toss is legit even by regular people, a small number of times you can accidently perform a toss that doesnt cause the coin to flip, but gyrate(it loops like its flipping) but doesnt really flip...

This and other factors including a ton of time studying footage of actual people flipping and then analyzing it caused them to come up with that figure.

I've heard Persi talk about it and it is something to think about, and I dont doubt it a bit.

He also notes that his machine can flip a coin exactly the same way each time(true flips) and control the outcome.

just like with a controlled shuffle you can control how the cards lay out...

What we are really relying on is generated chaos based on the initial toss, hoping that humans(giving a true flip and not the trick controlled flip I mentioned) can't control a coin to that degree with any reliability.

I'm just pointing out that it is VERY SLIGHTLY biased to the side you started on, in real life conditions(if you had a million people flipping coins starting on heads for a day, at the end heads would be ahead).

I agree for all intents and purposes its really 50/50 though given a good flip.

He actually was saying that the machine gets 100%(not 51%) so that isnt what he's saying.

I agree its almost complete bull with anything >51%, but after reading the articles and talked with Persi(he's also a magician), I do trust his results....
 
MacGyver said:
Well,

I agree for all intents and purposes its really 50/50 though given a good flip.

hello my friend,
I am not a magician.
I never flipped burgers in the Backyard Burgers
I am an OLD , FEEBLE and LEGALLY BLIND pool player who can`t play a lick,
BUT I will flip/toss the coin any speed or height u want and will make it land the way I want it 75-80% of the times.I do not believe in that 50-50 theory. cheers
 
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You just gotta love AZBers! YOU GOT ME! I CONFESS!!!

OK, I admit making up the whole story! ;)

Don't hate me. (pleading! :o )

I really just wanted to see how things would go. I was an armature magician for many years and used this story to set up a few coin tricks. I was amazed at just how well everyone stood their ground in AZB. It is true that pool players are smarter than the average bear! The audience would go for this realization every time and would call tails when someone would be asked to call a flip after the story.

Anyway, it is 50/50 on each and every toss as so many of you pointed out. I love the fact that pool players are truly wise in so many ways. CONGRATS ALL OF YOU. In OldHasBeen's defense, I would agree that over your lifetime you probably would get one side to come more than the other, but guessing which side that would be the real trick huh? I'm sure it is like McGyver showed that it's probably near a 1% margin of error, but who really knows. I never counted on another magician getting in the discussion, so KUDOS to McGyver. Also you gotta love Masayoshi for knowing I was making up a story and never caving in. :) I will be giving these guys some reputation. :D

For info, the other gag I used when time was shorter is I would tell them that because the head side was "rounder" and positioned in the center of the quarter it causes it to bounce with a slight more roll and would make the quarter flip to tails more than the other way around. Either way the audience member always called tails. It was amazing how many people would come up afterward and thank me for teaching them that. Gee, :eek: looking back, maybe it was kind of cruel not telling them the truth afterward. Oh well, hopefully they figured it out on their own.

In the pool room people come up with all kinds of crazy stories. For the younger pool players this is a great lesson in just how you have to think for yourself and not take what people say as gospel.

You just gotta love the sharp pool players mind!

I hope everyone enjoyed this and doesn't hate me. I was so tired of hearing the winers complain about the forum being boring. When the coin flip topic came up, I thought it would be fun to mix it up a little. Thanks for making me so proud of pool players!

OK, :( I will go back to being the serious analyzing guy I have been. ;)
 
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This might help some of you gamblers out there... When I was in junior high, the gymnasium had a rubberized floor that would produce an 'edge' flip (neither heads nor tails) when a nickel was flipped about 5' in the air and allowed to drop on the floor. When the coin struck the surface, it would bounce on edge and roll around slowly until it came to a stop... still on edge. It happened more than 75% of the time... so... bet away! Your problem might be finding one of those rubber floors!
 
Not right ...

scottycoyote said:
i dont toss the coin......i always bounce it down on the table, whats that do to the probability lol

That disqualifies it as a 'flip' of the coin. You're method is
a throw.
 
vagabond said:
hello my friend,
I am not a magician.
I never flipped burgers in the Backyard Burgers
I am an OLD , FEEBLE and LEGALLY BLIND pool player who can`t play a lick,
BUT I will flip/toss the coin any speed or height u want and will make it land the way I want it 75-80% of the times.I do not believe in that 50-50 theory. cheers
I believe that you can do that. But if you're flipping and I'm calling, as long as I randomize my calling (and I'm calling it in the air) to be about 50-50 heads and tails, you still only have a 50% chance of winning.

E.g., You toss it so that tails have a 70% chance of showing. Then 1/2 of the time I call tails and have a 70% chance of winning. The other 1/2 of the time I call heads and have a 30% chance of winning. Then my odds of winning are

.5*.7 + .5*.3 = .35+.15 = .50.

Of course, if it's true that 70% of people call heads then you can win more than your share of breaks by always flipping tails. It just won't work against someone who truly randomizes their calls of heads and tails.

Cory
 
Cory in DC said:
I believe that you can do that. But if you're flipping and I'm calling, as long as I randomize my calling (and I'm calling it in the air) to be about 50-50 heads and tails, you still only have a 50% chance of winning.

E.g., You toss it so that tails have a 70% chance of showing. Then 1/2 of the time I call tails and have a 70% chance of winning. The other 1/2 of the time I call heads and have a 30% chance of winning. Then my odds of winning are

.5*.7 + .5*.3 = .35+.15 = .50.

Of course, if it's true that 70% of people call heads then you can win more than your share of breaks by always flipping tails. It just won't work against someone who truly randomizes their calls of heads and tails.

Cory

U are complicating my life with your maths. why do u want to confuse this old man? I give up,u win.:cool:
 
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