"FarguMent" vs Mosconi Cup - Do the numbers add up?

TurboDraw

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
There is probably a thread somewhere, but do the Fargo Rate numbers correctly predict what the Mosconi Cup results are thus far?

Open for discussion, and I have popcorn. :)

Best to all
 

slide13

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Be interesting to see, but I’d also say that any deviation is explainable by the fact that MC is a wholely different experience than most tournaments. Loud crowds, teams, doubles matches, etc. no other tournaments duplicate those conditions so not sure Fargo rate should predict it accurately.

I think that is why Shane never does as well as we all seem to expect, but being good at MC is not the same as being a good tournament pool player and vice versa.
 

mikepage

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
There is probably a thread somewhere, but do the Fargo Rate numbers correctly predict what the Mosconi Cup results are thus far?

Open for discussion, and I have popcorn. :)

Best to all


I think some people have a misconception about FargoRate and predictions.

If you know a certain big building has 450 female employees and 550 males employees, do you "predict" the next person to come out of the elevator is a man? Not really.... I think you would say the next person could very well be a man and could very well be a woman but that if you counted for a full day or a full week you'd see more men than women.

So here is the way we see, for example, a race to 5 between Thorpe (762) and Van Den Berg (784). If you plug that into fairmatch, you see Billy has a 41% chance of winning and Nick has a 59% chance of winning. But here is what that means. We actually look at each possible score in a race to 5 and compute the chance of getting that score. Then we add up all the scenarios where Billy wins to get the 41%. These are shown in the graph below, where we plot the number of times out of 100 matches each score is expected to be achieved. Billy wins a lot of them, just like a lot of people coming out of the elevator are women.

Then of course these ratings are based on their average play in the past, and there are many things about the Mosconi cup that are far from average conditions.

when we look at

--the lights
--the rails
--the crowds
--nerves
--worrying about what teammates think
--knowing your mom is watching
--the shot clock
--not being able to get in a rhythm

we think there are a lot of reasons average performance is out the window. But here is the thing. This entire list applies to both players, and if both are knocked off their own personal A game by similar amounts, the numbers will work out about the same.

So if you're looking for reasons this situation is special, you need to argue that one player or team is MORE affected than the other by the conditions.
 

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BRussell

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
So if you're looking for reasons this situation is special, you need to argue that one player or team is MORE affected than the other by the conditions.

My guess is that if you figured your SPR for the Americans and for the Euros, the Americans are underperforming in the Mosconi Cup, and have been for years. There are lots of random factors, but it sure looks like a non-random factor is at work. The only condition I can think of that is different for the Americans is a history of their team losing: That little voice saying "you can't win, you never win."
 
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