What is 66% of one time?
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Yes, but, I took away a card at random before he was forced to pick a goat.
Which now gives me the information I need to pick the car 66% of the time.
You seem to think pulling out the card or door randomly at first doesn’t matter. It absolutely does.
Uh, I can't tell yet lol...
At the point you always swap, 50% of the time you will be throwing away the winner. The other 50% you win. The 66% is simple distraction. He will always be looking at a goat and something and will discard a goat. That will always leave a goat an car and you won't know which is which.
Your logic would be the same as:
You have a form of cancer that is operable. 80% of patients die on the operating table.
But, your logic is you either “die or you don’t” so it’s 50/50.
See you're just stonewalling. You have one shot at winning. There is no 66 percent chance unless you take a 50/50 shot at losing.
Holy shit dude.
That’s the exact scenario, just from the person picking the doors POV.
There’s literally no difference.
Ok the bet is for the whole car. How does that play?
No, I just understand basic probability and you don’t.
If you don’t swap doors, you win the whole car 33% of the time.
If you swap doors, you win the whole car 66% of the time.
That’s literally how it plays.
If you want to win the whole car, you swap doors to give yourself the best chance.
If you don’t swap, and you still win the whole car, you got lucky. But you didn’t make the correct choice based on the available information.
What? three choices, two goats and a car. You pick one leaving a goat and either a goat or a car. He must toss the goat. Regardless of your initial choice you get to keep it or switch to the only remaining choice, goat or car. There is no 66% of anything.
Sorry, one typo in my explanation.
Instead of: You always knew going in that the second set was comprised of one door that had the prize and one that did not.
It should read: You always knew going in that the second set might be comprised of one door that had the prize and one that did not.
That might help…
At this point, it’s become almost ridiculous. Just find a live human, sit down at your kitchen table, play it out. It will become obvious, quickly
The probabilities were given in the original post. They don't guarantee winning the one time yet the "wisdom" is unanimous at "take the switch". This doesn't make any kind of sense.
66% of the time, the two you didn’t pick will be a Goat and Car.
With a goat in your hand.
33% of the time you will pick the car and the other two will be goats.
Wrong. Initially you have 33% chance, 1 in 3. He eliminates one loser which means you now are 1 in 2 and you still get to choose but it remains 1 in 2, 50/50.
You have a better chance of winning the whole car versus a lesser chance of winning the whole car.
A better chance doesn‘t guarantee a win, it’s just more likely.
You have 1000 friends who will be on the show, one every day for 1000 days. Each will get a chance at the car.
If they all switch, statistically, 666 will end up with cars and 333 will not get a car (ignoring the one odd fraction).
If they all stand on their original choice, 333 will get a car and 666 will not.
Would you advise your friends to switch their choice?