Ignore Bait: Highest IQ, Many Questions, Odds makers invited...
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See? Still with the odds. In a perfect scenario, the player will be guessing both times and worse compelled by a fixed condition to undo the first guess. Playing the 66% might do more to alleviate anxiety than actually winning the car.
Anything short of STFU Noob is accepted here.Can I answer that?
tomatoshooter
Well-known member
I think there was a card game like this that some guy hustled a lot of people in the old west with. I think it was different than three card Monte because I think Three card Monte is about the sleight of hand and this is about very unintuitive odds.
tomatoshooter
Well-known member
tomatoshooter
Well-known member
That's always been the most effective way of comprehending the problem for me. When you accept that 999 times out of 1000 the car is not behind your door and then remove the other places where the car isn't, it becomes a little more understandable. It's funny to watch the people arguing against the mathematicians.
To me, the easiest way to understand the conundrum of the Monty Hall problem is to assume the same game, but with 100 doors instead of 3 doors, with the car behind only one of those 100 doors and a goat behind the other 99 doors.
Common sense probabilities would tell us you would have a 1% chance of picking the door with the car behind it from the start. With knowledge of what door the car is behind, the host could one by one eliminate 98 of the 99 doors that had a goat behind it, leaving only two doors remaining, the door you picked and one other door.
Even though there are only 2 unopened doors remaining, do you really think you would now have a 50% chance of having the car behind your door? Obviously the answer is no, you still have the same 1% chance the car is behind your door that you started with, which means there is a 99% chance that the car is behind the only other unopened door remaining other than yours, so you would be far better off switching doors at that point, if you were offered that option.
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I can “shake the red card” pretty good. Not as good as I could back when I practiced it all the time. It’s not hard to do, with a few hours of practice, to really pull it off takes much longer. It’s impossible to tell when someone is real good at it. If they are working with a crew, it’s impossible to beat. Because if the mark does pick the winning card, someone from the crew will place a higher bet on the wrong card-the dealer only takes the high bet, which knocks the marks correct winning bet. Follow that?
In other words you have 0% chance to win in 3 card Monte against a crew. I’ve worked in those crews. I’d have never mentioned this in the past. But that hustle like most are in the past as the secret is all over the interwebs destroying all hustles
Fatboy<———back to the drawing board…..
A guy showed me how the card work is done but the schill work does lock it up. Thanks for that revelation.I can “shake the red card” pretty good. Not as good as I could back when I practiced it all the time. It’s not hard to do, with a few hours of practice, to really pull it off takes much longer. It’s impossible to tell when someone is real good at it. If they are working with a crew, it’s impossible to beat. Because if the mark does pick the winning card, someone from the crew will place a higher bet on the wrong card-the dealer only takes the high bet, which knocks the marks correct winning bet. Follow that?
In other words you have 0% chance to win in 3 card Monte against a crew. I’ve worked in those crews. I’d have never mentioned this in the past. But that hustle like most are in the past as the secret is all over the interwebs destroying all hustles
Fatboy<———back to the drawing board…..
tomatoshooter
Well-known member
I never minded letting 3 card Monte take a couple of bucks. Dude has developed a skill. At least he's not just begging or stealing. Those guys were entertainers.I can “shake the red card” pretty good. Not as good as I could back when I practiced it all the time. It’s not hard to do, with a few hours of practice, to really pull it off takes much longer. It’s impossible to tell when someone is real good at it. If they are working with a crew, it’s impossible to beat. Because if the mark does pick the winning card, someone from the crew will place a higher bet on the wrong card-the dealer only takes the high bet, which knocks the marks correct winning bet. Follow that?
In other words you have 0% chance to win in 3 card Monte against a crew. I’ve worked in those crews. I’d have never mentioned this in the past. But that hustle like most are in the past as the secret is all over the interwebs destroying all hustles
Fatboy<———back to the drawing board…..
A more proper example would be:
You have no choice to play and it’s life or death.
Do you switch doors?
In that scenario, you double your chances of living by switching doors.
One schill can lock it up 100%
However a full crew is best when your working a big crowd like Time Square. You need a schill to start the action, sometimes 2, a look out for cops, muscle for angry customers, and the dealer. Biggest crew I’ve seen is 5- I was part of that, I was the action man(starting the action or asking to bet more)
I’ve also worked a 2 man game where I started the betting as a schill, I’m the pool room. No need for security and the guy was so good rarely did the mark pick the correct card. If the mark did, he’d just scramble them cards and not take the bet. We never lost a bet, unless we wanted to.
It’s a beatuful hustle when done properly. It doesn’t look like magic. It just looks like the guy choose the wrong card.
“I’ll hold the game open for you when you get back from the ATM machine”
That was my favorite thing to say….I’ve worked it alone as well, never had a problem.
Let’s make it life or death. You have no choice. You have to play the game. Let’s say the Jigsaw killer said “let’s play a game.”
-There are 3 doors. Behind one of them is a gun that kills you if you open that door. There is nothing behind the other two doors.
-You have to pick a door randomly, that won’t be opened yet.
-You pick your door.
-Jigsaw gets to look inside the other two doors. He absolutely must open a door that’s empty,
-That means if both doors are empty, he can open either one. If one door has the gun, he has to open the empty door.
-He opens a door and it’s empty (this happens 100% of the time)
-Now, you have a choice to open your door, or his door.
Which door do you open?
-There are 3 doors. Behind one of them is a gun that kills you if you open that door. There is nothing behind the other two doors.
-You have to pick a door randomly, that won’t be opened yet.
-You pick your door.
-Jigsaw gets to look inside the other two doors. He absolutely must open a door that’s empty,
-That means if both doors are empty, he can open either one. If one door has the gun, he has to open the empty door.
-He opens a door and it’s empty (this happens 100% of the time)
-Now, you have a choice to open your door, or his door.
Which door do you open?
No, it shows (not presumes) your first pick has half as much chance of being right as if you switch - that’s not “always wrong”, just twice as often.
As has been said a number of times, 1 in 3 without switching vs. 2 in 3 switching.
pj
chgo
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That’s a pretty big bet. I’m down!
The odds are 33% on not switching
66% on switching.
1/3 and 2/3
There is zero other way to look at it. The odds are the odds are the odds.
*in this very specific scenario* If you change something in the scenario, the odds are different.
So, exactly the same situation with a gun instead of a car - so you’d better switch.
The odds don’t know you might die.
pj
chgo
You asking me? I do not know. Yeah yeah, the odds say...
Math has killed more people than um, lotsa stuff
and it's getting better at it.