Knight Shot Open 2025

[Oikawa]

Being very familiar with statistical significance in my day job, I can assert quite confidently that a 12-point gap between Filler and Gorst, and a 12-point gap between Gorst and Chua, is statistically insignificant. Margin of error.

24-point gap between Filler and Chua is not statistically insignificant. It's for a reason that Joshua is 858 and the 830-840s are 830-840. The way Fargo works, you can trust the rating of those with 1000s of matches in the system to reflect their average skill extremely well. It only breaks down when one doesn't have many matches in, which is nowhere near the case for these top pros.

 

[Frosty]

Nice post. I think we like Chua for many of the same reasons.

Chua is certainly super-aggressive on offense and that, as you suggest, makes him great to watch. The exact same thing can be said of both Jayson Shaw and Naoyuki Oi, who wow you by going for everything. All three of them produce great theatre. You are right in suggesting that Chua takes on shots that the top two pass on, but that might possibly be because his defense/kick/jump skills are not as elite as they might be.

Chua, per your description. is not a truly complete player, while I'd rate someone like a Ko Ping Chung as super-elite at both offense and defense, which is why he has both a World 10ball and a US Open 9ball on his resume. Personally, I like KPC's game over Chua.

Still, Chua is a very special player. Maybe he'll shine at the upcoming World 9ball. That would make both of us happy.

Great post Stu, you’re correct in both that while he is a special player, he’s not a complete player. I do love the fact that he is a “kamikaze” in the way he will take on shots other players won’t, it certainly makes him entertaining to watch.

 

[jbart65]

You are right in suggesting that Chua takes on shots that the top two pass on, but that might possibly be because his defense/kick/jump skills are not as elite as they might be.

I knew you might think this, because I wondered about it, too. After watching Chua for some time now, though, I think he takes on shots other won't take because he's so good at making them. Not because he has to to compensate for the weaker parts of his game.

Take thin cut shots. He has an uncanny ability to make them consistently, especially after another player thinks he has played a decent safety shot. In the PLP, for example, Chua made four very thin cut shots in a short sequence against SVB to help him win their round robin.

At first, Boyes and Frost were dumb-founded. They didn't think Chua would take on the first or second thin cut shot that he made. Then they just assumed he would take them - and make them.

After his fourth make, Boyes was absolutely flummoxed. He started rambling about whether Chua had special eyesight. Crazy.

***

Chua is thus the opposite of Filler, the most economic player in pool.

Chua prefers his toughest shots to be the ones that get him great position on the next ball. The toughness is not so much in pocketing the ball, but in moving the CB around the table so much that he gets in position to finish an easy runout.

Most players don't like to move the CB too much, and for good reason. It increases the chance of getting out of line. Pool instructors often advise players not to move the CB too much. Chua goes against that idea more than any other player on the tour.

Risky? Yes. But it pays off most of the time.

Filler prefers to move the CB far less. He has said he prefers to take a longer but makeable shot rather than move the CB too much and risk getting out of line. He play this way because he is the straightest shooter in pool.

Difference in philosophy.

If I had the ability of a Filler or a Chua, I would play more like Filler. Chua takes more risks, but it comes at a price. Filler's more conservative approach is more consistent.

 

[jbart65]

24-point gap between Filler and Chua is not statistically insignificant. It's for a reason that Joshua is 858 and the 830-840s are 830-840. The way Fargo works, you can trust the rating of those with 1000s of matches in the system to reflect their average skill extremely well. It only breaks down when one doesn't have many matches in, which is nowhere near the case for these top pros.

If you read my post again, I suggest the 24-point gap between Filler and Gorst is statistically significant. I could have been more clear.

I do not believe a 12-point gap is statistically significant, but it would be hard to prove one way or another.

 

[jbart65]

As soon as he keeps his concentration on "ALL" shots, and improves his cross rail simple banks, AJ Manas may be in the conversation. He appears to have as much natural ability as anyone and more than 90% of the top rated 100. ICE runs through his veins under pressure.

Manas has a way to go in safety play as well.

 

[sjm]

I knew you might think this, because I wondered about it, too. After watching Chua for some time now, though, I think he takes on shots other won't take because he's so good at making them. Not because he has to to compensate for the weaker parts of his game.

Take thin cut shots. He has an uncanny ability to make them consistently, especially after another player thinks he has played a decent safety shot. In the PLP, for example, Chua made four very thin cut shots in a short sequence against SVB to help him win their round robin.

At first, Boyes and Frost were dumb-founded. They didn't think Chua would take on the first or second thin cut shot that he made. Then they just assumed he would take them - and make them.

After his fourth make, Boyes was absolutely flummoxed. He started rambling about whether Chua had special eyesight. Crazy.

***

Chua is thus the opposite of Filler, the most economic player in pool.

Chua prefers his toughest shots to be the ones that get him great position on the next ball. The toughness is not so much in pocketing the ball, but in moving the CB around the table so much that he gets in position to finish an easy runout.

Most players don't like to move the CB too much, and for good reason. It increases the chance of getting out of line. Pool instructors often advise players not to move the CB too much. Chua goes against that idea more than any other player on the tour.

Risky? Yes. But it pays off most of the time.

Filler prefers to move the CB far less. He has said he prefers to take a longer but makeable shot rather than move the CB too much and risk getting out of line. He play this way because he is the straightest shooter in pool.

Difference in philosophy.

If I had the ability of a Filler or a Chua, I would play more like Filler. Chua takes more risks, but it comes at a price. Filler's more conservative approach is more consistent.

I don't agree with all of this, but a lot of it makes sense. When you shoot as straight as Filler, and Earl Strickland played with a very similar mindset because he had similar skills in pocketing the balls, you do not need to be as aggressive in your position play. You need only make sure that you get the next angle right.

I think calling this a difference in philosophy misses the mark a little. Both Gorst and Chua, like Buddy Hall and Ralf Souquet before them, play just a bit closer to the object ball than guys like Filler and Strickland, arguably the two best ever runners of the table at 9ball, ever chose or had to, As you say, playing tighter shape with more cue ball movement comes with some risk that some must take on if they are to have a chance at matching the runout rate of the legendary pocketers of the balls like Lassiter, Strickland and Filler.

I think we are pretty much together on this. Chua HAS to play this way to have a chance to stay with the biggest guns in the sport. He is a straight shooter, but, whether he has a special talent for difficult cut shots or not, he doesn't shoot as straight as a Filler, Shaw or Kaci.

The only point on which we disagree is whether Chua sometimes chooses offense over defense because he is not as tactically skilled as many of the elite. I believe he does. You do not. Agree to disagree.

 

[skip100]

A 12-point difference is not particularly meaningful in a tournament situation. Each game becomes a 52-48 affair rather than 50-50; the luck of the balls and players' day-to-day variance in performance both dwarf 12 points. With thousands of games in the system, though, it is 'statistically significant' from the perspective of measuring the players' typical skill.